Which party would be best for Taiwan’s future is for the people of Taiwan to decide. While the DPP has done an unbelievably lousy job and do not really deserve a second chace, I think it would be a travesty if the KMT returned to power since they have done nothing over these last 3+ years to reform the party’s top-down, authoritarian structure, weed out the corrupt and incompetent, and bring in new, younger blood.
Which party wins the presidential election next March will depend on several factors:
(In no particular order of importance)
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A-bian’s running mate. VP Lu looks like she is already history and definitely off the ticket. The DPP really needs a miracle to pull a rabbit out of the hat and find a ringer to get the undecided and swing voters. The problem is there just isn’t a good pool of candidates to choose from. So who is willing to run the gauntlet with Chen? Academica Sinica’s Lee Yuan-tse? Well respected as an academic but I don’t think he would be a good vote getter. Besides, he doesn’t have the stomach for a go-for-the-throat type of election campaign that will be required. Vincent Siew? Probably a favorite of Pres. Lee Teng-hui. Smiling Vince may be interested but faces intense pressure from the KMT to back off. My hunch is that the DPP will have to play it safe and go with the Taipei County guy - but this will lose them any waishengren and swing voters. (Advantage: KMT/DPP)
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Can the KMT/PFP alliance stay relatively intact until March? It looks shaky but I expect that greed and self-interest should keep it together. They hate each other but need Lien Chan/KMT needs Soong/PFP on the ticket in order to prevent another vote split. This team really makes me quesy. (Advantage: KMT/PFP)
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The economy. If the US economy picks up steam and Taiwan’s export orders post some strong gains over the next six months then the local stock market (which in Taiwan is the most reliable indicator of economic confidence) should post some good gains. If so, the year end company wei-ya’s will be better than 2003’s, Lunar New Year bonuses will be better, and people will in general feel more secure in the future. This will take away the KMT’s strongest ace: the economy card. (Advantage: DPP)
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Referendums. This is a wild card now that the KMT/PFP have agreed to back legislation permitting referendums. I’ve no idea how this will play out - it depends on how the referendums are structured, worded and what issues are voted on - but at least it will demonstrate to voters that the DPP can achieve some of its campaign promises. (Advantage: DPP)
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China issues. The DPP will play up Beijing’s ultra-hardline stance over the past three years against Taiwan’s participation in any and all international forums. They will use the WHO/SARS fiasco to paint the PFP as traitors who will sell out Taiwan 's interests. The huge protest march in HK recently should give ammunition to anti-reunification arguments. Can Beijing hold its tongue over the next eight months and play it soft and sweet towards Taipei? Not a chance. (Advantage: DPP)
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Media coverage. Will Taiwan see comprehensive media coverage of the election? Yes. Will if be fair, unibiased, in-depth analysis and issue-oriented coverage? Not in this lifetime. We will see superficial, rumor-driven, emotional coverage of what I am afraid will be Taiwan’s dirtiest, nastiest election campaign ever. (Advantage: KMT/PFP)
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SARS. Will the grim reaper sweep through again this fall if the SARS virus re-emerges with all the seasonal cold and flu viruses. The WHO feels that SARS may be like The Terrminator - and will come back when you least want it. If so, the effect on economy, the stock market, people’s confidence, etc. will be serious enough to push voters to demand a change - any change - in the hopes of making life better. If so, the ruling party is likey to be tossed out. (Advantage: KMT/PFP)
There are too many uncertainties at this stage to make even a halfway educated guess. Only a fool would hazard a prediction. So I will give it a go:
If the global economy picks up, AND there are no more terrorist incidents in the US (which would effect the economy), AND SARS is banished until after the election, AND A-bian chooses a halfway decent running mate, AND referendum issues are voted on on the same date as the presidential election, then the DPP might eke out a win. Otherwise, it looks pretty bleak for the party in green.