I’m not a foreigner in Taiwan. I’m a foreigner in Hong Kong/Guangdong. I am not pro or anti-independence. I think that excluding the Ma Yingjiu pretty boy side of of the KMT, the blue camp is nothing but a bunch of facist pricks who wouldn’t think twice before cutting a deal with Beijing if it lines their pockets. I’m not opposed to unification; I see some sort of political relationship with the mainland as possibly being in Taiwan’s interests in the future. However, I don’t want that deal to happen too soon or to be made in a closed, smoke filled room. While I think the KMT/PFP are hopelessly corrupt and facist, I think the DPP are a bunch of rednecks. CSB is not a stupid man nor a hopelessly poor leader, but his job is made more difficult since he doesn’t have a whole lot to work with.
In my opinion, the cross straight situation is not going to change too much even if Lian-Song win. These guys still have to maintain a credible defense against the mainland if they are going to have any clout at a future negotiating table; they will probably improve links, but not so much that Taiwan’s security will be compromised too badly. I don’t think they’re going to do much of anything about corruption, though. If we think CSB hasn’t done much about it, then I think we’re in for a much bigger dissappointment if the government turns blue.
My biggest reason for favoring CSB (and I just barely favor him) is that I don’t want to see HK’s political situation decline. HK can take the economic loss of not being the middle man in cross straight links. However, the political impications of Taiwan unification for HK are all negative. Even now, Beijing is starting to get extremely “creative” in their interpretation of the Basic Law. Until recently, they had behaved themselves. The reason for this is merely because they have been trying to present an attractive image to Taiwan. Lately, though, talk of political reform in HK has been too loud for Beijing to tolerate. They’ve been getting quite pushy with HK and have started to say things that directly contradict the Basic Law. All of this in an election year in Taiwan; they should be afraid of a Taiwanese backlash, but they apparently think that reform fever in HK is getting so out of hand that they have to risk CSB being reelected. If Taiwan makes a unification deal with the mainland, then Beijing will no longer have any reason to show how well they can follow the law for a one country two systems arrangement. There’ll be no one left to impress.