We have the Japanese releasing a boat captain because of extreme pressure from China and the US who continually refuse to label China a currency manipulator. It seems that world just bends over and takes it’s ass fucking from China, why? Why don’t they just stand up to China? China manipulates it’s currency that much is clear, and Japan had the right to charge that boat captain too, all that bullshit from China, tourists canceling holidays and so on reminds of a child jumping up and down and screaming when it doesn’t get it’s way. The Japanese should have acted like responsible parents and instead of spoiling the child, simply ignored it. Same goes for the US, they should call China a currency manipulator, it’s the only logical thing to do.
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The USA is hugely in debt to China. It’s in the trillions. And the USA needs China to continue buying its debt. Let’s say the USA upsets China really bad. China could suddenly stop buying this debt. This would be a big problem. Maybe China would dump all that debt and its one trillion US dollars onto the open market.
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China has suckered so many foreign companies to invest heavily in China. China’s economy is a command economy–not an open market economy. So if China gets pissed off, it could make life impossible for all those companies. As is, China won’t let foreign companies compete on a level field unless those companies give their trade technologies to their Chinese counterparts.
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Look at what just happened between China and Japan. Japan kept the captain of the Chinese fishing boat. As soon as Japan sent the captain home, the Chinese grabbed four Japanese in northern China and charged them with espionage. China is very big and getting bigger. Might makes right.
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The USA is being threatened by China with losing the right of traversing the South China Sea. Last month the USA moved the war games with South Korea because China demanded it.
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The USA is getting poorer and at one point will not be able to keep up with Chinese Navy expansion. China intends on building a navy similar to the present size of the US navy. China is finishing development of the ‘Carrier Killer’ which will be able to destroy any of the US aircraft carriers. Power in this case is all about money. Over the past thirty years China almost single-handedly killed most manufacturing in the USA by holding the rinminbi 20% to 40% below real value. Go to Walmart or go to most any other superstore. Most cheap products are stamped “Made in China.”
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The USA and Europe had to stand on their heads and twirl to get China and Russia to back the plan to punish Iran for processing plutonium or uranium. China supports Myanmar, North Korea and any other crazy country or madman that thumbs its nose at the UN.
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China is handing out boatloads of cash throughout Africa in exchange for very long-term contracts to mine those countries’ raw materials, minerals.
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China has become perhaps the biggest gamer in the field of electronic espionage. Hubei province is full of military installations whose only purpose is to steal information and bring down the IT centers of entities that whip up Chinese ire. When Australia said no to a huge mining contract, Hubei punished the Aussie company with an electronic bombardment that shut down its systems. China broke into the email accounts of the Dalai Lama’s movement worldwide and stole info.
Would you like to live in a country which decides for you what you can see on your computer screen?
Where 7% of the people spy upon the other 93%?
How about a country where the air is almost unbreathable? Vast swaths of polluted lands, lakes?
How about a country where factory owners poison thousands of babies?
China is a petulant, whimsical Communist dictatorship with too much influence in the world. They suckered everyone into investing the the country due to “cheap labor” and a “huge market”. Now they have the world by the short hairs, and they can do things like tell Google what to censor and tell the IOC what name Taiwan can compete under. They can manufacture products laced with melamine and distribute it around the world. They can affect the value of world currencies and commodities at a whim. And if you’ve been to China and seen how the people and government there resolve disputes, you’d be scared too if you think of them extending those habits into the international arena.
Oh, and they have nukes.
Ok, I lived in Shanghai for 10 months and witnessed how Chinese people settle disputes on a personal level. I lived a 3 floor apartment building in one of the main areas of Shanghai and was paying too much for rent (because I’m white, and for no other reason). One day I was mopping my floor and accidentally spilled a bucket of water over, which almost immediately started leaking through the floor. The downstairs neighbour came upstairs furious with me, then went to my landlord, who also became furious with me. They then started harassing me like crazy, saying that I damaged, the floor, the neighbours ceiling and her TV, all of which would have to be repaired/replaced, and I was going to have to pay for all of that.
I’ve witnessed quite a few car accidents in China, most of which were tiny little bumps that caused little to no damage, but of course created a huge uproar and a demand of “you have to pay money”. In my opinion we should stop giving a fuck about the money and just pull out of China. Also China cannot dump the US’s debt for several reasons.
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It would make the value of the renminbi skyrocket.
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The debt would be bought by other countries, such as Japan, Germany, and various other European countries.
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They would lose any leverage they have over the US.
Dunno, but I THINK there might be a (very few) signs of a change, prompted by doubts within the US military-industrial complex, about their ability to sustain their amazing gravity - defying act indefinately.
US defence spending has increased continuously since 1998. Sophisticated weapons systems continue to be developed with government funding, despite the lack of an enemy with anything much more sophisticated than a Toyota pickup truck. In the current economic climate that becomes a rather hard sell, though direct pork beneficiaries won’t complain.
The high tech sectors of the industry need an enemy to sustain the gravy train, cold war stylee. The reaction to China’s possible carrier-killing capability suggests they might have found one.
China is really the only credible candidate. It will be interesting to see if her usefulness as a corporate trading platform continues to outweigh her potential usefulness as a potential techno-foe.
Yes, and what did it get them? I read somewhere that the EU exports more to Switzerland than to China. :loco: I never heard of the Swiss demanding access to the technology that created those products…
I seriously think this thread shows off the symptoms of yellow fever which many Westerners have picked up from news channels which harp on and on about how bad China is.
China is a country going through the motions of development and change that practically all western nations have at some point.
Currency manipulation? Please! Anyone who screams currency manipulation has never received any sort of education in economics at all. Of course they manipulate their currency, exactly the same as every single issuing bank does.
Have you ever seen one of these before:
[quote=“Ben Bernanke”“people know that inflation erodes the real value of the government’s debt and, therefore, that it is in the interest of the government to create some inflation.”[/quote]
I hardly ever post in IP, because I find it usually ends in a shit fight. So I’m posting now against my better judgment…
I believe “rumours” of the US’s downfall and spiral into a second or third rate economy/power are highly exaggerated and actually plays into the hands and plans of military planners in the US and the military-technological industrial base.
[quote=“Ducked”]Dunno, but I think there might be a (very few) signs of a change, prompted by doubts within the US military-industrial complex, about their ability to sustain their amazing gravity - defying act indefinately.
US defence spending has increased continuously since 1998. Sophisticated weapons systems continue to be developed with government funding, despite the lack of an enemy with anything much more sophisticated than a Toyota pickup truck. In the current economic climate that becomes a rather hard sell, though direct pork beneficiaries won’t complain.
The high tech sectors of the industry need an enemy to sustain the gravy train, cold war stylee. The reaction to China’s possible carrier-killing capability suggests they might have found one.
China is really the only credible candidate. It will be interesting to see if her usefulness as a corporate trading platform continues to outweigh her potential usefulness as a potential techno-foe.[/quote]
Quite so!
In the medium to foreseeable long term, I seriously doubt that. In the unforeseeable long term, it’s still highly improbable. Besides having a huge conventional fleet (not to mention unconventional strategic fleet), the USN is light years ahead of anyone, let alone China in terms of technology and experience. In fact, regionally, Japan would be more than game in a naval battle against anything China has, and the Indian Navy will give them a hiding the likes they haven’t seen since the British fleet and marines wiped the floor with them in the Opium Wars. On land, things may be more even, or even in China’s favour, but at sea China wouldn’t currently be able to challenge India or Japan. Perhaps in the medium term, but with Indian acquisition of Russian Akula Class submarines and a license to build them in India, it seems India will be ahead of China for a long time yet.
Numbers mean little in the face of technological superiority and experience.
Unless I’m missing something, I believe you’re referring to the Russian bought Sovremenny class destroyers, which were originally designed with that very purpose in mind. The PLAN have upgraded the Sovremennys and have their own designs on the table, but whether a handful of Sovremennys would actually be able to threaten US carrier supremacy in practice is another thing altogether. It’s not just about trying to destroy a carrier, there’s an entire carrier battle group to deal with including the best nuclear submarines in the world with the most experienced and highly trained officers and ratings in the world. furthermore, the USN will be well aware of anything the PLAN puts to sea, and would adapt their tactical and strategic planning accordingly.
And the socio-economic base to sustain growth, adapt to new pressures and situations and improve as a result.
Manufacturing in developed nations have been moving to developing nations for decades. After WWII Germany and Japan were both huge manufacturing countries. Today, most of their heavy industry is carried out in developing nations. Not just China. South Africa builds several German and Japanese car models (the 3 series BMW, for example) for international markets.
Corporations in developed countries have profit in mind, and will move their manufacturing to any country where labour is cheap and reliable. Once China has served it
s purpose, these companies will move on to the next area. Possibly Africa (I wouldn’t be too surprised if in 30 years everything is Made in Angola, Mozambique or South Africa).
So it’s not like the CCP has “plotted” the systematic downfall of the US’s industrial base. The US economy is going through a period of change, and will come out of it on the otherside changed, different and undoubtedly stronger. The question is, with the troubles already raising their heads in China (pollution, corruption, rising costs of labour, social unrest, and inequalities in the distribution of wealth, and aging population etc etc), will the CCP and China be able to solve these issues, adapt and come out of it on the otherside stronger and better for it? Time will tell, but under the current status quo, I doubt it.
It wasn’t too long ago when people were projecting the end for the USA under the threat of growing Soviet power, in Europe, Asia and globally. The Soviet armed forces out numbered anything the US or NATO could throw at them, and yet within a few years the entire monstrosity that was the USSR collapsed. Historically, and realistically, authoritarian regimes are unable to cope with the same social and economic pressures faced by other countries and in the long run, what appears to be a strength shows to be a weakness and leads to the utter collapse of the entire system. I don’t see China being any different, And historically, things aren’t on their side either, as through their entire history they have gone through phases of massive economic growth and strength, which has always ultimately ended in the country falling apart, schisming and a new “dynasty” taking over from the old. Sometimes for the best, sometimes (as in the case of the CCP) for the worst.
Good post Bismarck. Maybe I’m just over sensitive about China, maybe all the other countries know that China’s collapse is coming and are just taking advantage of it, but it seems a little hard to believe at the moment.
Cheers, mate. Must admit, that’s the first time I’ve ever had someone say something nice about a post I made in IP. 
[quote=“bismarck”]Corporations in developed countries have profit in mind, and will move their manufacturing to any country where labour is cheap and reliable. Once China has served it
s purpose,[/quote]
That’s a fanciful way of looking at things but in fact China has used western corporations far more than they have been used. When China joined the WTO it promised to open up. It received a rash of investment as companies drooled over 1.4 billion consumers. But the reality is that China did not open up, instead using the investment to develop itself and its state-owned enterprises. Furthermore China is now making the leap away from low-end manufacturing. Some low end production is shifting to the west but the general aim is to develop large Chinese companies that can compete around the world.
Look again. The next 5 year plan will be officially announced next month. The focus is on raising wages, living standards, and going green. GDP growth will no longer be the yardstick by which progress is measured.
Chinese leaders are also openly talking about democratic elections in the most economically advanced areas, knowing that corruption, caused by unaccountability, is undermining development. Of course the CCP will never relinquish power at the central level but they don’t need to to greatly improve conditions.
Like it or not China is dreaming big while the rest of the world is trying to hold on to what they had.
Comparisons with the USSR are simplistic. The USSR was a totalitarian regime that massively oppressed it’s people politically, socially and economically. China oppresses its people only politically. The CCP is widely considered the legitimate government and the average person sees that his living standards are a hundred times better than 30 years ago. Soviet supermarkets were empty. Chinese brim with produce and goods from all over China and the world. People believe with a lot of justification that they have never had it so good.
Good post, MM. However, if they’re actually able to implement the large scale changes they’ll inevitably need, remains to be seen. And allowing democratic elections may not be enough for the emerging middle class, let alone the 100s of millions or poorer people in regions where wages may not rise by much. Would be interesting to see what their new five year plan will be proposing, though.
A country that has poisoned it’s own land and people for short-term profit will also take every last paying job from the USA if that what the growth engine requires, even if it is not the goal of the CCP to do so.
Numbers mean little in the face of technological superiority and experience.[/quote]
Hmmm…Not so sure about that though. What about Vietnam, the Russians versus the Germans, The Russians versus the Afghans etc… There are too many examples of this not necessarily being true all of the time. Certainly its going to be difficult sending a million men snorkelling 200 meters down to destroy an American sub, but I’m not sure the Chinese are that poorly developed. The Chinese are said to have the Sunburn missile system. It is also said that the Americans have no defence against this system. I don’t know enough about this to be honest, but it leads me to wonder.
While a lot of what you’ve said is true Mucha Man, when I was in Shanghai a lot of my teachers said that many people in China want the CCP to step down from power now. There has been a lot of development, but the vast majority of people are still oppressed socially and economically, only about 5-10% of the population actually have the living standards of the west, i.e. own their own home, have a car and a well paying job.
Let me give you an example of someone I know personally. She’s Chinese, lives in Nanjing and went to Switzerland to do a masters degree. When she returned to China to try and get work she couldn’t find anything, a list of reasons she was given included “you’re not pretty enough, you’re too old, you’re not married, you’re unwilling to sleep with our clients”. She currently works as an English teacher, and she earns less than 1000 RMB per month, her boss thinks he’s paying her too much money because other people would be willing to do that that job for free (apparently). She has to live with her parents to survive, now they are being evicted from their homes in the next few months because the government wants to build new flats for rich people, and the compensation they will get for their home is 20% towards the cost of a new house, which means they need to come up with the other 80%, which effectively means they’ll be homeless.
The suicide rate for young women is really high in China, they are under huge pressure socially to get married to a rich man who will look after the family. I had a Chinese gf who was 29 and she was desperate to get married to me because she didn’t want to be over 30 (and therefore old) and not married. Forced evictions are also really common in China, for example the building of the expo, they forcibly evicted people to make that. I have an Italian friend who made a documentary all about it, there was an old man with a heart problem who doctors said could not be moved (and was of course moved from his home), as well as a taxi driver who was too tired to care because he works 24 hour shifts.
As far as new buildings go, if you go to Shanghai you’ll see that most of the newest and tallest skyscapers in the Pudong area are empty. The other thing is that a Chinese girl told me that it’s all built on waste. New apartment blocks are only built to last a maximum of 25 years, after that they are torn down and replaced with something else. Out of 1.3 billion people 800 million live in the countryside in poverty and of the 500 million who live in the cities, most of them live in poverty as well. Not only that, the way people think and act socially is still the same as the way people used to think and act like 100 years ago, they may have move forward economically, but in lots and lots of ways they are still stuck in the past.
Numbers mean little in the face of technological superiority and experience.[/quote]
Hmmm…Not so sure about that though. What about Vietnam,[/quote]
Had the US generals and Admirals been given free reign that country would’ve burned within a year, or every living soul in the country would’ve been slaughtered. Who ever heard of peace talks > unrestricted bombing of the north > restricted bombing > peace talks > etc etc… Not really a fair assessment of US military capability at the time when ground, air and naval forces were restricted, had two hands tied behind their backs, no clear goals or strategy (due to civilian meddling and incompetence), social upheaval and zero support for the soldiers or the war at home, and back room politicking.
Politically, the war was never meant to be “won” (which makes little sense to me, or anyone with any military background or interest), but to curtail Soviet expansion in Asia. This is a strategy that has been used in several theaters, even in Afghanistan at present. These are “wars” where the US has a goal in mind other than military domination, but uses it’s military for certain strategic goals. Lessons from Vietnam were learned to the extent that the US population is now lied to and fear spread in their ranks at home in order to ensure popular support.
Notice how “Yellow Peril” propaganda isn’t exactly discouraged in the media and elsewhere.
I take it you mean in WWII? Well, that’s what happens when you give command of the armed forces to a glorified mentally unstable corporal. Invading Russia with winter approaching is bad enough, but doing so when a large percentage of your military is being utilised in eliminating a large portion of your own population, thinly stretched on another front (which has traditionally been Germany’s weakness and fear - fighting a war on two fronts), and shoring up defenses on the southern flank and backing up allies (Italy) folding under Allied pressure.
But 1941 German Wehrmacht vs the Russians one on one? No contest.
That’s a good example, but their were many mistakes that the Russians made that had they chosen other alternatives could’ve resulted in victory. Also didn’t help their cause much that the other Super Power (The USA) was supplying weapons and training to the insurgents.
Certainly. The two Anglo-Boer Wars being prime examples were a technologically inferior force was able to humble a far superior one (in technology and numbers). But as the Brits showed, when bringing the full brunt of their forces to bear, and acting without an ounce of mercy (concentration camps, scorched earth policy), eventually an inferior force will relent…or face extinction.
Especially seeing as those subs can do 30kts or more submerged.
Their submarine service is laughable. Seriously.
I’m on my way to work, so I’ll make this brief. Also, please remember that my “expertise” in this field is highly dated (by eight years at least), although the general principles remain the same.
The platform for the Moskit 3M80E missiles, NATO designation SS-N-22 Sunburn, is the Sovremenny class destroyer. These ships were the principle anti-surface warships of the Soviet navy, and the Sunburns and the Sovremennys were designed with the purpose of destroying US aircraft carriers.
The four large tubes visible just aft of the pennant number (420) are the Sunburn missiles, of which these ships carry eight. The missile is a sea-skimming missile with velocity of Mach 2.5, armed with a 300 kg high-explosive or a nuclear 200 kt warhead. The range is from 10 to 120 km. Their velocity, range and warhead is what makes these missiles so fearsome. That said, an aircraft carrier battle group (CVBG) would actually need to be within 120 km of one of these vessels for them to actually deploy their Sunburns. And there lies their problem.
A US CVBG is a total fighting system comprised of the carrier and several surface and sub-surface escorts, not to mention an arsenal of aircraft which would be the envy of most airforces the world over. A surface vessels two biggest threats aren’t necessarily other surface vessels, especially buggers like the Sovremenny class, but firstly aircraft and secondly submarines. As submariners like to say, their are two types of vessels. Submarines, and targets. A US CVBG has a range much greater than 120km and in a real war the Sovremennys would be neutralised long before their missiles would even begin to be a threat.
Ok, sorry. Got to run now.
[quote=“ninman”]While a lot of what you’ve said is true Muzha Man, when I was in Shanghai a lot of my teachers said that many people in China want the CCP to step down from power now. There has been a lot of development, but the vast majority of people are still oppressed socially and economically, only about 5-10% of the population actually have the living standards of the west, i.e. own their own home, have a car and a well paying job.
Let me give you an example of someone I know personally. She’s Chinese, lives in Nanjing and went to Switzerland to do a masters degree. When she returned to China to try and get work she couldn’t find anything, a list of reasons she was given included “you’re not pretty enough, you’re too old, you’re not married, you’re unwilling to sleep with our clients”. She currently works as an English teacher, and she earns less than 1000 RMB per month, her boss thinks he’s paying her too much money because other people would be willing to do that that job for free (apparently). She has to live with her parents to survive, now they are being evicted from their homes in the next few months because the government wants to build new flats for rich people, and the compensation they will get for their home is 20% towards the cost of a new house, which means they need to come up with the other 80%, which effectively means they’ll be homeless.
The suicide rate for young women is really high in China, they are under huge pressure socially to get married to a rich man who will look after the family. I had a Chinese gf who was 29 and she was desperate to get married to me because she didn’t want to be over 30 (and therefore old) and not married. Forced evictions are also really common in China, for example the building of the expo, they forcibly evicted people to make that. I have an Italian friend who made a documentary all about it, there was an old man with a heart problem who doctors said could not be moved (and was of course moved from his home), as well as a taxi driver who was too tired to care because he works 24 hour shifts.
As far as new buildings go, if you go to Shanghai you’ll see that most of the newest and tallest skyscapers in the Pudong area are empty. The other thing is that a Chinese girl told me that it’s all built on waste. New apartment blocks are only built to last a maximum of 25 years, after that they are torn down and replaced with something else. Out of 1.3 billion people 800 million live in the countryside in poverty and of the 500 million who live in the cities, most of them live in poverty as well. Not only that, the way people think and act socially is still the same as the way people used to think and act like 100 years ago, they may have move forward economically, but in lots and lots of ways they are still stuck in the past.[/quote]
You are conflating cultural issues with political ones. The CCP has nothing to do with the fact that businesses openly discriminate against ugly women. In fact they have made it illegal but society itself keeps the practice legitimate. This is a problem with the Chinese people and not their government.
As for people being dissatisfied yes I heard far more serious grumblings, even from die-hard patriots this spring than two years ago. Largely it is the result of the development of the past few years driving up property and house values so that even the middle class can’t afford homes. Friends in China told me that if they had not brought their place a few years ago, they would not be able to now. this is a serious issue for a developing country that wants to urbanize most of the population in the coming decades.
What I am saying though is that the latest 5 year plan is directed at a number of the problems that are causing the most grief in China. If the government is successful then I think you will see a wide return of general support.
Perhaps, but there are other issues. For example in HK Uni they have 300 places for Chinese students from the mainland, and they get around 12,000 applicants. Since 1979 over 70% of Chinese students who studied abroad did not return home. The reason is because in HK and abroad they get a lot of freedoms that they don’t get in China. I have a British friend who lives in Shanghai and he said he is basically running on VPN all the time, because he needs unrestricted internet access. I certainly used VPN a lot when I was in China, but the problem with it is how fucking slow it runs when you turn VPN on. Here in Taiwan and in HK you have very fast, unrestricted access.
When I was out and about in the last few days I saw some Falun Gong protests, if that happened in China those people would be getting tortured, and it would honestly make you want to throw up if you heard the kind of techniques the CCP use on those people. As people get richer, there is a stronger, and stronger desire for other freedoms, such as freedom of speech, human rights, free access to information. When I lived in China I used to encounter blocked websites simply by trying to read about tennis results.
History is not on the CCP’s side, because in all of human history the only types of regimes that ever stood the test of time were rich, free and democratic ones. I really feel that the UN could do the world a favour by kicking China out of the UN and re-instating Taiwan. I don’t think that communist dictatorships should have anywhere near as much influence on the world as China has.
there are worse countries than China in the UN. North Korea (since 1991), for example, or Burma. Funnily enough, they are both best friends with China.
The UN should just add Taiwan, not recognise Taiwan as rightful representatives of China, which they patently are not.
Of course, that will never happen while the Chinese maintain a veto in the SecCon.