A few posters and several politicos seem to imply thta Taiwan Independence is inherently bad. I am interested in understanding why… beyond the “then China will attack” argument.
Could those who feel this way explain your opinions?
Taiwan already is an independent country. I`d be interested to hear the arguments myself.
By continuing on the TI path we risk being marginalized by both PRC and USA, which will destabilizes the region while wasting limited resources on an issue which is the product of the Cold War, that by all accounts is over.
Every major power on the planet has normalized relationship with the PRC. We should too by establishing the 3 links. Then we can concern ourselves with the sovereignty issue, through diplomatic channels.
[quote]maowang: A few posters and several politicos seem to imply thta Taiwan Independence is inherently bad. I am interested in understanding why… beyond the “then China will attack” argument.
Could those who feel this way explain your opinions?[/quote]
The “lead up” to Taiwan declaring Independent and associated “instability” before and after ( assuming Taiwan really becomes “independent” with US help )plus all the aggravation for the population is just not worth it for majority- I estimate this to be 65% of Taiwan populace.
I think one very valid point made by Hexuan is that, most people in Taiwan are just trying to ekk out a simple living. What is the average household income in Taiwan? Do you know? If you had relatives in Taiwan that are struggling to make ends meet without knowing any English, without much savings, what are they going to do in the event “war is protracted” or they have to move? A lot of Taiwanese people’s livelihood, life time “savings”, excluding those now working in China would be totally destroyed or used up- in the event of a war or protracted embargo. The anticipation of war is probably more disruptive than the actual blitz.
I don’t have the exact figures for this but I would guess that a lot of people, the majority just want to stay in Taiwan in peace. A second passport even if free is almost quite useless if you can’t speak English in the US.
Busineness disruption: Taiwanese businessmen have invested quite a lot of money and time in China and in the event of a conflict, China will put pressure on their businesses and they will have trouble recouping even 10cents in the dollar. During the seige state that follows what sort of business will Taiwan do?
Only about 35% according to the survey below of the current Taiwan population are interested in resisting China-with US help.
[quote]
Taiwanese say war is unlikely
Only 11 per cent of Taiwanese expect war with China to break out within three years, and nearly half oppose fighting to defend the island if a
vote favouring independence triggers a conflict with Beijing, a poll said.
The poll, commissioned by Taiwan’s Business Weekly magazine, was released on Thursday as China and Taiwan,which separated amid civil war in 1949, were holding annual war games. The survey reported that only 11 per cent of the respondents believed there could be a war with
China in the next three years. The poll said 64.5 per cent thought a war was unlikely. The rest gave no response.
The next three years could be crucial for Taiwan-China relations, analysts say, because Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian wants to introduce constitutional changes in 2008. China says that could be considered a move toward permanent independence.
The balance of military power could also shift further to Beijing’s advantage during the next three years as China continues a spending
spree on new jets, warships and submairines. The poll said 47.6 per cent of those surveyed opposed waging war to maintain Taiwan’s democracy and independence "if Taiwan declares independence through democratic means and China decides to militarily invade Taiwan ". However, 34.7 per cent supported a war in that event, and the rest had no opinion, the poll said. The poll said most Taiwanese believed that United States intervention would be vital to winning a conflict. More than half the poll respondents, or 52 per cent, expected Washington to send troops, and 59.3 per cent said Taiwan did not have the power to resist a
mainland invasion on its own.
The survey, conducted June 25-29, received 1,811 valid responses and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. It was
conducted by the respected Election Study Centre at National Chengchi University in Taipei.
Dow Jones Newswires - Friday, July 23, 2004[/quote]
Another way of lessening the burden of this conflict on the masses is assuming that we can tag all the potential resistance which is 35% percent of the population and start to “normalise” the rest of the population with China. 35% is about 8 million or only the size of HK’s population in 2006.
We divide the island into “north” and “south” zones. Move all the resistors to the south say. Move the rest to the north. I am just giving an example here. It could be east or west.
Those people who will not put up a resistance to China can henceforth immediately enjoy all the benefits of the “One China” policy. ie These people should be given the immediate right to all the privileges China now provides for its SEZ or SARs’ citizens: HK and Macau citizens fr example. The unresisting north will be run by a CEO just like HK is runned. Since this population is larger than the resistors its area should be larger than the south on pro rata basis.
This enforced “stalemate” is a better stalemate than the current condition when nothing gets done and resources are wasted just resisting. Wiht this new condition the majority of the population can be freed from the current ideological impasse.
In the ‘south’ the Taiwan Independence advocates will have their multi-party democracy. The US will airlift any additional aid they need just like the Berlin blockade.
The main point I am trying to make here is that the vast majority of ordinary people - ekking out their simple lives- feel they cannot afford to have this conflict and its consequences imposed upon thier lives. In other words most of them would feel much better if the TI could move well away somehow and have their conflict somewhere else at a safe distance.
Just want to make one point that the ‘north’ will trade freely with the south and be run by an elected CEO just like Hong Kong. It will have normalised the 3 links. Taiwanese from this ‘north’ can fly directly to China/shanghai instead of via Hong Kong as now. We all agree to revisit the north south issue in 50 years time when all the current leaders or China and Taiwan are dead.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]By continuing on the TI path we risk being marginalized by both PRC and USA, which will destabilizes the region while wasting limited resources on an issue which is the product of the Cold War, that by all accounts is over.
Every major power on the planet has normalized relationship with the PRC. We should too by establishing the 3 links. Then we can concern ourselves with the sovereignty issue, through diplomatic channels.[/quote]As the Taichung Mafia said, Taiwan is already independent. If the PRC and the USA were to realize that, it would not marginalize Taiwan by any means, it would make them a player on equal terms. Taiwan would then be respected, instead of belitttled by the PRC and the USA would only become closer to Taiwan.
Regarding the Three Links, everybody wants that, including President Chen and the DPP, maybe even Lee Teng Hui! However, the PRC has put impossible demands if we are to start these three links, while Taiwan has put NO DEMANDS on this. It is the PRC who you need to complain to, as they require that if the three links are to be started, Taiwan must first state publicly that it is a part of the PRC, i.e., the One China statement as it is in the PRC. That is suicide and even you AC and your CCP/KMT/PFP alliance know that. However, you personally care more about the money than the freedom and the status of Taiwan. You don’t even live in Taiwan, you fricken hypocrite! And all your investments are in the Communist PRC. (Hahahaha, I hope your investments have electrical power!!) You want to see Taiwan usurped by its Communist neighbor, don’t you!? What do you care? Please Note AC, it won’t make your little China weewee any longer and the girls there in the USA still won’t want you.
Regarding the recognition of Taiwan as being an independent nation as inherently “bad”, it is indeed bad, bad for the CCP as the war mongering PLA might get restless or the oppressed people of the PRC might focus again on the ills of their nation and not on the “Taiwan problem” and they might just try to oust the CCP as well. But that won’t happen will it, CMDJING ande AC_DROPOUT because their will still be enough tanks and soldiers loyal to the CCP to roll over the people until they are submissive again, just like the Tiananmen Massacre in Beijing, June 4th, 1989!?
Hobart,
What are you smoking in Taiwan? And why are you fixated on my wee wee? Does you wife know about this?
If you have time to look up what PRC requires of ROC to do in order to lift the self impose ban ROC has the 3 links, they are just to show up at the negotiating table. I believe the PRC already removed the “One China” policy from the negotiating table already.
English.peopledaily.com.cn/20040 … 48136.html
No where does the 3 links require us to define the China sovereignty issue.
By normalizing relationship with the PRC. Perhaps we will also be able to normalize more easily with the rest of the international community.
However, the converse is not true. If we don’t normalize with the PRC first, we will probably never be able to normalized with the rest of international community.
Mindless ranting.
Anyways, once the 3 links are established HK economy will be hurt again because 3 million stop over trips between ROC and HK will be reduced. This unnecessary travel to HK will reduce ROC citizen shopping while passing through. Hence, the dissidents in HK will have something more to complain about every July 1. So you should support 3 links, so that HK residents will have something else to demonstrate about.
Pan-Green side would never support the 3 links. How else can they keep propagating the Taiwanese identity myth on the island? If all those country bumpkins on Taiwan met their Minnan speaking cousins from the Mainland. The Taiwanese ethnic myth is over in 2 seconds. All those Taiwanese elitist and their supporters will feel pretty stupid really fast.
Hey AC, isn’t it bedtime there in the USA for you, you fricken hypocrite (talking about Communist invasion when you don’t even live in Taiwan)! Is your momma going to bring you some doujiang before you sleep and tuck you in.
I talk about your little weewee because isn’t that why you want the PRC to invade Taiwan? So you have more respect in the USA. Unfortunately you are a PRC boy with a little weewee and can’t get a date in the USA and no one respects you. Maybe if the PRC was richer like Japan then you would be respected huh? If Taiwan were a part of the PRC then they would be richer. We know how PRC boys without dates in the USA think.
About the three links, here is a quote from President Chen’s inaugeration speech “…and that we must further promote cultural, economic and trade exchanges – including the three links…” You are a nasty little racist to call the Taiwan people country bumpkins. Anyway, President Chen knows that if Taiwan people were to meet people from Fujian province they would immediately realize they have absolutely nothing in common and that those people are extremely foreign to them and then they would want Taiwan to be in the UN even more and never want to unite with such a foreign and polluted land.
Once again, The DPP Pan-Green alliance wants the Three Links it is the PRC that is causing the trouble saying that Taiwan must first state they are part of China. Nothing has changed.
Up front, I’ll admit that I don’t know the history between longer time posters on Forumosa. That said, I started reading this thread in hopes of learning something about Taiwanese politics. Didn’t really happen.
Hobart: You are free to post what you want. That said, what I’ve seen in your posts, when overlooking the insults to other posters, is good information and thoughtful comment. You seem to have something to offer. Given a choice, I’d like to see more of that on this site and less about weewees.
We should all be grateful for difference of opinion, even if we consider it stupid or hypocritical. It’s far better than “groupthink” and it helps to add to the overall balance which avoids societal situations like the one that developed and exists in the PRC.
Seeker4
drambuie, I’ve got a better solution for you. You PRC supporters can leave for China and leave the rest of us in peace. You could (as the saying goes) raise the average IQ of both countries by emigrating. If anyone needs directions to the airport they can PM me for a map. We had enough north vs. south tension in the weeks after the election, thank you very much.
It’s interesting that the CCP goon squad shows up here to argue against the rights of the Taiwanese to self-determination. Did someone push the panic button? No-one here is in any hurry. You guys can slowly choke on your own pollution over there, Taiwan doesn’t care.
[quote=“drambuie”]…run by an elected CEO just like Hong Kong. [/quote] 
stop it stop it please my stomach hurts
The destabilization of the East Asian region is pretty much caused by two states, China and North Korean. These are the two aggressors who choose to stir up trouble instead of working on something constructive. It is China’s aggressions that put every other country around it on a defensive posture. It is China that is demand the countries in the world that if they recognize China, they can not recognize Taiwan. It is China that bitched and whined so that Taiwan can not join APEC until after they joined. It is also China that is blocking Taiwan’s bid for the WHO even though China decided to put the world in danger by covering up SARS. The only country that wants to marginalize Taiwan is China. Every other country in the world would be glad to recognize Taiwan if China would just stop causing trouble. The only thing block the de jure independence of Taiwan is the military threat of China.
Like a lot of people in the world, the people of Taiwan just want to live in peace. The people of Taiwan has lived through 40 years of martial law under the Chiangs and 50 years under the Japanese so they have been conditioned to keep their opinions to themselves to avoid confrontation. I think the Chinese (pan blues and CCP) should not feel safe in the assumption that the people of Taiwan will not fight back against them. Yes opinion polls state that the people will not fight but those polls are asking the question when the Taiwanese people do not have their backs against the wall. People forget that 228 was also a release of the anger by the people of Taiwan against the oppression of KMT. When the people of Taiwan are pushed beyond the boiling point, they will fight against the Chinese. The people are not against TI, they are just against getting killed. Right now the people of Taiwan enjoy their freedom and feel comfortable in the fact that they have their freedom so they are willing to delay the TI issue to avoid getting killed. If the Chinese start to threaten their freedom by invading, the will to fight will surface. An example of this type of thinking is being played out in Hong Kong right now. The people of HK were living there assuming that they will continue to enjoy their freedoms. When that freedom seems to be taken away, then they start to fight back.
The first people to run from Taiwan in a Chinese invasion will be the Chinese anyways. It’s ironic that the pro-unification people will be the first to run away from what they have been wishing for.
As for the the talk about the Taiwanese business people who will lose their investments, all I have to say is that they knew the risks of investing in China.
The Taiwanese identity is an identity of nationality and not one of ethnicity or race. Taiwanese identity is based on the tradition and culture from the unique history of the people of Taiwan. This is tradition and culture passed down from our ancestors who came from other areas decades and even centuries ago. The Taiwanese identity also includes the 50 years of Japanese occupation and the effects of those years. The Taiwanese identity even includes the years of terror under the KMT. It is a natural progression of people who share a common history.
The only bad thing about TI is that it basically removes the power base from the Chinese(CCP and pan blues). CCP basically uses Taiwan as a rally point to stay in power in China. If Taiwan can achieve independence, it would make them look weak. As for the pan blues, TI would make them irrelevant as a political force. They would not be able to use the fear of Chinese attack as a rally point.
Mark
I got the impression that Maowang’s topic was more like this:
If there was no political interference from the PRC or the US, and thus no consequences for regional instability or war, would TI then be a good or bad thing?
(TI has been (and is still being) debated on many different threads. This topic will only be useful if people focus in this aspect).
So does anyone think that if Taiwan was really free to make a no consequences decision, declaring independence would be a bad thing?
Brian
Isn’t it so obvious? If Taiwan were formally independent, then the culture of the dirty locals would take precendence over “Chinese” culture. Everyone would have to speak their filthy, backward dialect that so obviously can never be written. Furthermore, if the Putonghua speaking, “Han” Taiwanese are allowed to go their own way, then all the other backward, filthy minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang will also want to crawl out from under the Han chauvinists’ heals, and that just can’t be allowed. All of these deviant people need guidance from the center. If they are allowed to make decisions for themselves, they’ll threaten world stability!
To answer your question simply, Chinese people are victims of group-think. They can’t possibly understand why anybody would want to leave the group, and the fact that a large number of people think that it is worth it to leave the group makes those who stay behind feel insecure about their world view and existence as a group. Every time you read or hear about a powerful country parroting the “one China” line, it’s not because they are cowering to Beijing. They are playing the role of the therapist who’s trying to make the insecure nutcase feel more secure and less paranoid. The reason Taiwan independence is bad is that if it happens, a good number of the PRC’s 1.3 billion will need serious counselling. In reality, the country will fall apart because quite a lot of its residents will no longer see the need to defer to Beijing. Even Washington does not see China splitting into half a dozen pieces as being in US interests. Taiwan independence would not just mean independence for Taiwan. It would most likely mean that the mainland would also split apart.
JT, excellent point. I never thought about that before. Thanks.
Seeker4
[quote=“Bu Lai En”]I got the impression that Maowang’s topic was more like this:
If there was no political interference from the PRC or the US, and thus no consequences for regional instability or war, would TI then be a good or bad thing?
(TI has been (and is still being) debated on many different threads. This topic will only be useful if people focus in this aspect).
So does anyone think that if Taiwan was really free to make a no consequences decision, declaring independence would be a bad thing?
Brian[/quote]
That line of questioning is a bit nonsensical. As you and others have argued, Taiwan is a sovereign nation which presupposes a state of independence. If it were not, it would not be sovereign. So, why would it need to declare independence if it already is? 
Hobart,
The peaceful resolution of the Strait Issue will have little or no effect on my social life, if that is what you are implying. Women are usually bored by armchair politics anyways.
All I’m suggesting is that will a diplomatic resolution to the Strait Issue it would eliminate the chances of a military conflict in the area.
But the point is CSB has never address how he intends to lift the ban impeding the 3 links. PRC lifted there bans against the ROC in respect to the 3 links already. Shouldn’t we follow suit. To at least begin establishing mutual trust across the strait to reduce military tension.
If the pan-Green TI side really believed that the cultural exchange between the people of Fujian and the people of ROC would only accentuate the differences, the TSU would have pushed for direct transportation ages ago just to make their point and further their political ambition.
Also I posted an article from the PRC dated July 1, 2004, it clearly states the “One China” issue is not part of the 3 links negotiations. And like a broken record player from the 60’s you are only able to repeat old, outdate, and irrelevant songs for the audience.
AC, you’re in the wrong thread. The question to be adressed in this thread is why some consider Taiwanese independence inherently bad. May I suggest you start a new thread for whatever it is you want to discuss about your social life or 3 links.
Jive Turkey,
Tell that to Hobart. I’m just being polite and addressing his curiosity and sexual orientation.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]Jive Turkey,
Tell that to Hobart. I’m just being polite and addressing his curiosity and sexual orientation.[/quote]If that is the case, then perhaps the two of you should take your discussion to the health forum.