Will China attack?

Will China attack? What do you think? When will she attack? What does the future hold for our little island!

we have been wondering about that for over 50 years. I think that the present path is leading to further workings together. And eventually there will be the same standard of living on both sides and then there is no need for a political difference.

They will ā€¦ about 4 months after the 2008 Olympics ā€¦

why the hell would they bother attacking? this country is slowly signing itā€™s own death warrantā€¦what motivates local taiwanese? money and the chance to make lots of it (with a view to immigrating)ā€¦where is that chance presenting itself? chinaā€¦independence is a forgotten word here, yesterdayā€™s newsā€¦

China, for the first time in about a hundred years, finds itself without major threats of invasion from surrounding foriegn powers. Itā€™s building its strength, stockpiling the weapons it can, and making deals with all the nations that the US and Europe wonā€™t deal with or canā€™t be bothered with ā€” i.e. rogue states in Africa. Taiwan isnā€™t going anywhere and isnā€™t overtaking it.

I was here on 9/11 and wondered if China would take advantage of the distraction. But ā€˜sheā€™ didnā€™t. I give Taiwan another 10 years, guaranteed.

You know what Forumosa needs? a pool. A China-attacking-taiwan pool. You pays your money, and you picks your day.

The only thing that might initiate an attack is an uncontrollable urge on Chinaā€™s side to save face.

Think on the bright side: Itā€™ll be over in a few dayā€™s time. The Taiwanese military had these simulation exercises a year or two ago where a Chinese attack was simulated on computer. I think it was over in three daysā€¦ :smiley:

But then, like the other posters said, China has nothing to gain from taking back this little rock.

Why would they bother? Itā€™s in their genes, genus ā€¦ and they want to save ā€˜faceā€™ ā€¦ although I donā€™t know why ā€¦ non of the shit heads were there in 1945-1949 ā€¦

No? Think internationally ā€¦ control over more outlying islands expands the territory ā€¦ probably oil fields, gas more, control ā€¦ power buid-up ā€¦ than attack korea, Japan for their outlying islands and gain more ā€¦ all paid by the west from trade ā€¦

We should stop buying from china and move to India, Vietnam ā€¦ Philippines e.o. ā€¦

Right, because India, the Philippines, and Vietnam are so altruistically minded! Ha!

Agreed, no immediate reason for China to attack Taiwan. Everything is in Chinaā€™s favor (as long as the feared Belgians donā€™t rally their tremendous forces and boycott our economy).

10 years ago, there was rough parity between PRC and ROC forces. Now, thereā€™s rough parity between PRC and ROC + US military forces in the cross-strait region. 10 years from now, unlikely even that rough parity will holdā€¦ (unless the Belgians deploy their fearful special forces into Taiwan.) In 50 years, Taiwanese will be either our business partners or our maids.

But you canā€™t ignore the possibility that this trend is precisely why things are dangerous today. Someone in Taipei could very possibly be looking to invent a reason. The doomsday clock for Taiwanese independence is ticking, and their best immediate hope is forcing a near-term conflict with China.

FYI, we have special undercover units no one knows about ā€¦ be scared ā€¦

the secret pie brigade. waffle you to death.

cctangā€¦ as always your vision of doom is quite remarkableā€¦

The only one waging war on this conflict is the CCP. As far as I know, TIā€™ers (or people that recognize that Taiwan is independent already) never made any attempt to put submarines near someone elseā€™s water, never destroyed satellites, never invaded nearby countries in the name of a superior race or whatever nor invented laws in case the other side announces independence (exactly from what we need to see).

In this story, the one who needs to be fearing is the CCP itselfā€¦ they are the ones who are staging their own ā€œwarā€ā€¦

Iā€™m not sure what point your making here mr_boogie. CCā€™s answer to the OP, I think is pretty spot on. i.e. not much chance of China doing anything while the status quo is continuing to change in their favor.

Maybe it was this comment that youā€™re responding to.

But stating that Taiwan is independent already, has de facto status meets the terms for the Montevideo Convention or whatever. Is quite besides the point, as is whatever beastly things China is doing to build up missiles and pass laws. If Taiwan wants to be accepted as a sovereign state, thereā€™s not much they can do, itā€™s up to other nations to make that decision. Thereā€™s no indication that anything TIā€™s did would change that fact either.

The way things are going, there is no reason to expect China to attack, the only way that could change is from an act from the Taiwan side. This is reality as I see it.

Does it make it fair ? I donā€™t think the Chinese care itā€™s fair or not. Why canā€™t Taiwan make amendments to itā€™s own constitution without the US getting their pants in a twist and saying the Taiwanese are at fault for trying to provoke China and change the status quo? After all Taiwan is an independent sovereign state already, right?

The phrase ā€œdonā€™t cut off your nose to spite your faceā€ jumps to mind.

Why would China want to attack Taiwan? They have every country in the world in agreement that Taiwan is a part of China. They are growing exponentially. If China can stay the course, there will come a time when the Taiwanese will be begging to become part of what China has to offer. It might be 20 or 30 years down the track but it is coming.

It is true that Taiwan is sitting on one of the biggest reserves of natural gas in the world. That will be of great interest to China and will probably make a handy negotiating tool for Taiwan in the future.

The biggest threat to Taiwan is inequitable growth in China. The second biggest is geopolitical manipulation. The least threatening issue is the Taiwan independence movement. It doesnā€™t have the cache.

Taiwanā€™s Canadian english teacher human wave attack will sweep the PLA bandits into the sea.

ā€œThey have Labattā€™s on three for two over there. Those PLA bozos are all thatā€™s standing between them and you.ā€

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Donā€™t forget, they also have chocolate, which would probably slow the PLA down because they would be too busy complaining how sweet it was to attack.

What war? The war was already over many years ago. On the condition that we understand and conduct ourselves within the constraits and limit, we should not be unduly worried. Itā€™s happy hours, pals. Drink and be merry

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Basically PRC is in the driver seat for the foreseeable future on this issue. I say marry off our women folks to mitigate the chance of attack. Or marry their women folkā€¦

Human shields to resolve the Strait Issue. No shame in hiding behind a skirtā€¦.especially if it is a fashionable mini in a size 0 with leather boots.