I just got a payment of around 3000 Euros, and I had it sent to my Euro account in Taiwan. I am just wondering since I won’t be using all that for the next few months is it best that I just turn it into NT to avoid further drop or keep it there and hope they will appreciate? I am not sure how to predict these things based on the data I have seen so far…
Due to the amount even a .1 nt change is a difference of 3000nt…
There is strong discussion that the Euro will become a thing of the past within the next few years.
Hearkened by a dissolution of the EU completely.
No there isn’t TC.
The EUR has been depressed by the issues in Greece, however before you lose it over that, remember that Greece is a mere 2% of the Euro zone’s economy. Once that resolves and the EUR bounces as a result, sell them.
Euro is going to dollar parity 
Soros is shorting the heck out of it?
course this is just a TUG (Tommy Uneducated Guess)
It looks like Euro and Pound are dropping to make those economies more competitive AND debt issues, since the Asians wouldn’t revalue their currencies. The USD is going up just as a consequence of ‘hot money’.
[quote=“tommy525”]Euro is going to dollar parity Soros is shorting the heck out of it?
course this is just a TUG (Tommy Uneducated Guess)[/quote]
Not quite:
Greece having issues is known, Spaoin being weak is known, Italy is holding up better than expected, and the bedrock is as usual made in Germany.
Weakness yes, however when it hit current values on the way up, people were talking about the strong Euro destroying Europe, now it’s the weak one…
[quote=“Mr He”]No there isn’t TC.[/quote]beg to differ. I suggest a review of online articles discussing the “PIGS” of the EU - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - for the coming economic bottoming-out of the Euro and the EU consequences.
[quote=“Mr He”]The EUR has been depressed by the issues in Greece, however before you lose it over that, remember that Greece is a mere 2% of the Euro zone’s economy. Once that resolves and the EUR bounces as a result, sell them.[/quote]Good advice, perhaps, for money management and investment possibilities, but it doesn’t address the concern over the affects the demise of the Euro on the EU.
The EU is based, as much as anything, on monetary stability and trade alliances. When this is threatened its member will go into “survival mode” to preserve their own domestic situations.
This panic is now setting in. Riots are occurring and instability is starting over the economic problems in several prominent EU members and wannabe members.
Current EU member countries:
EU Countries
I’m still predicting that individual survival instincts will trump the EU alliance. Just my thoughts.
It is hugely beneficial for the UK “real” economy to have the pound at current values. Although we don’t see that much export subsidition yet, we see a change in UK imports, IE people importing capital equiment and machinery, so exports are likely to pick up.
A rerun of the early 1990’s in other words.
[quote=“TainanCowboy”][quote=“Mr He”]No there isn’t TC.[/quote]beg to differ. I suggest a review of online articles discussing the “PIGS” of the EU - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - for the coming economic bottoming-out of the Euro and the EU consequences.
[quote=“Mr He”]The EUR has been depressed by the issues in Greece, however before you lose it over that, remember that Greece is a mere 2% of the Euro zone’s economy. Once that resolves and the EUR bounces as a result, sell them.[/quote]Good advice, perhaps, for money management and investment possibilities, but it doesn’t address the concern over the affects the demise of the Euro on the EU.
The EU is based, as much as anything, on monetary stability and trade alliances. When this is threatened its member will go into “survival mode” to preserve their own domestic situations.
This panic is now setting in. Riots are occurring and instability is starting over the economic problems in several prominent EU members and wannabe members.
Current EU member countries:
EU Countries
I’m still predicting that individual survival instincts will trump the EU alliance. Just my thoughts.[/quote]
I know about the PIIGS, which after Ireland choose the path of austerity has become the PIGS.
You will see a muddle through, as everybody’s interests are served much better by being members of the Euro. If the Euro fails, the PIGS will go down the tubes, so it’s in their interest to preserve it.
Germany, France, and the low countries have also benefited from the stability the Euro provided, so they are loth to see it go as well.
The greek riots are a matter of their riot police.
The Germans don’t want to bale the greeks out, that said, Greece is a special case, so I think we will end with a small bailout, coupled with harsh reforms in Greece.
Germany and France will bail out Greece. There will be instability in the Eurozone but it won’t be abandoned, it’s part of a political aswell as economic model. If countries dropped out of the eurozone they would still have to pay their debts, their new currencies would be weak as hell thereby potentially creating more problems than it solved.
The UK is not in the Eurozone and it’s currency may face a run in the next year because of the relative size of it’s economy compared to US/EU. So there are persuasive arguments either way.
[quote=“headhonchoII”]Germany and France will bail out Greece. There will be instability in the Eurozone but it won’t be abandoned, it’s part of a political aswell as economic model. If countries dropped out of the eurozone they would still have to pay their debts, their new currencies would be weak as hell thereby potentially creating more problems than it solved.
The UK is not in the Eurozone and it’s currency may face a run in the next year because of the relative size of it’s economy compared to US/EU. So there are persuasive arguments either way.[/quote]
I agree. Greece will do some, Germany and France will do the rest.
Also, it is a very very important point that the Euro is a political project, and not purely an economic one - IE as long as the opolitical will is behind it, it will survive.
Without sounding foolish, I think that the downside for the GBP is limited. A new govt and credible decifit cutting plans (something both Gordon and David are committed to) will stave off any worries about currency or economy collapse in the UK.
[quote=“Mr He”]No there isn’t TC.
The EUR has been depressed by the issues in Greece, however before you lose it over that, remember that Greece is a mere 2% of the Euro zone’s economy. Once that resolves and the EUR bounces as a result, sell them.[/quote]
That doesn’t take into account the enormous amount of debt currently on the books of major E.U. banks and the tune that debt plays on the economy at large, even the Swiss Franc.
Greece is signalling the beginnings of the end for the Euro. The same piss poor situation can be seen in the U.K. and the state of the Brit pound too. In fact all major Fiat currencies in the world today are facing extremely strenuous tests right now and TC is not exaggerating in reference to the potentially dire situation the Euro Dollar is facing or by how many serious economists and banks are deeply concerned and believe the end may indeed be nigh.
And if the euro goes kaput, and the greenback is in the tank, then we are left with what? The yuan will also go puff without those big two.
[quote=“Icon”]And if the euro goes kaput, and the greenback is in the tank, then we are left with what? The yuan will also go puff without those big two.[/quote]I disagree if the Euro tanks, the dollar goes through the roof and interest rates in the US hit real lows causing an excessive lending and borrowing binge along with rampant inflation in certain sectors. It will be interestign to see where the “drill, baby, drill” idea goes. Already the US is the number 1 producer of natural gas in the world and if they go wild, drilling for oil in all that unchartered territory. They might start eating away at their current acct deficit.
The Yuan is an elaborate ponzi scheme. It makes Enron look like a bunch of pikers with accurate data in comparison.
The Euro is dead! Long live the Euro! The EU is nothing more than a corporate entity that went on a buying binge like a conglomerate and now finds that it’s not all that rosy. That’s why conglomerates often are discounted in their share values as no company can do all things well. This talk of austerity is hilarious from any EU country. Vaclav Claus explained it well when simple legislation in the Czech republic would get bloated and when he asked why. He was told that all the additional laws and regulations were to bring the legislation in line with the EU laws and regulations.
Did I ever mention “GOLD!”
There’s no appetite for abandoning the Euro in any Eurozone country. What will they go back to , the Italian lira, Greek drakma, Irish pound… me thinks not. The euro has been a real success up to this point, most smaller countries have enjoyed stable currency rates for their businesses until they binged on the cheap interest rates, but that is a matter of government policy also. For instance countries such as Spain and Ireland actively encouraged huge property speculation due to their tax credit schemes. I know the typical Irishman, Spanish, Italian or Greek wouldn’t be rushing to abandon their Euro and see their income evaporate overnight and their businesses having to pay back euro denominated loans and mortgages into wildly fluctuating and devalued local currency.
Amazingly there has been hardly any unrest in Europe as of yet, mostly people are accepting that they f%^ked up through there own devices.
The GBP going down is rough one for me but it makes our sales more competitive, double edge sword. The same is true for Eurozone companies.
Anyway the good old NTD is holding steady, just keep your money in NTD or yuan.
I am not really asking what’s gonna happen 10 years or even 5 years from now. I have about 3000 euros in my Euro account and I just need to see if the rates will improve in the next few months, since a difference between 43 (the current rate) and 45 is about 10,000nt so it is significant! I want to wait for the rates to go up a bit before I turn it into NT because I am in no hurry to spend it right away.
An interesting proposal for the Euro - Euro 1 & Euro 2
[i]"Since the euroland leaders have invested their prestige and credibility in the single currency euro, it’s demise will likely be cloaked in some “face-saving” measure. My best guess is euro-denominated bonds, both public and private, will be offered in two flavors: “euro 1” for mercantilist Germany, France, the Netherlands, etc. and “euro 2” for the highly indebted, debt-and-asset-bubble-dependent consumer nations: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, etc.
This could be a de facto (unofficial) “solution” to repricing debt and assets in each nation, or it might even become “official policy” as the great structural divide between mercantilist and consumer nations become unbridgeable even rhetorically.
Eventually, the “euro 1” currency will be valued more highly than the “euro 2” currency–again, either de facto or de jure. If the E.U. prefers total denial as a policy, then the revaluation/devaluation will be de facto; the “street price” of euro 2s will be worth less in the real world even if the E.U. maintains the fantasy of a single currency."[/i]
I doubt if whats outlined in the article will be proposed, but it does show one approach.
An alternative to this might be continued convergence between the economies of Ethe EU.
The Euro is failed not only because its a Fiat currency and that’s what they all must do, but also because Euro land is far larger than any one country. There are differences in living standards, property prices, food prices, you name it. Yet there is one fixed rate of interest. It simply doesn’t make sense. Even Euro 1 and 2 would fail in such a system.
Even the U.S. knew this which was why they insisted on only gold and silver to be used as currency according to the constitution as well as only apportioned taxation.