This hasn’t been posted yet, but the PLA has gone on “combat alert.” This was in the South China Morning Post this morning; I don’t have an online subscription so I can’t provide a link. The report said that Beijing is monitoring the situation and that under the PRC’s “law,” Hu Jintao can declare a “state of emergency” in Taiwan and then invade. According to the article, there are still no signs that they are truly preparing to attack. Nonetheless, I think everyone would rest easier if the US were to send a second aircraft carrier. This would be the best time for the PLA to attack. That they haven’t shows that they still don’t think they have a decisive advantage, or if you want to believe so, that they want to solve the Taiwan problem peacefully. I more strongly believe the former.
The PRC seems to have the ability to mobilize large numbers of people quickly, and the army is presumably the most mobilizable group, but how quickly could they mount an invasion?
I am assuming that there are a lot of satellites watching the PRC right now for any signs of an impending invasion. If they were planning anything - and there has been no indication that they are - I think there would be time to pack a toothbrush and run for the airport. I keep a spare at the office, just in case.
There would probably be a period of heightened tension first, and commercial flights would be suspended. Then we’re reliant on our respective governments to come up with something. But we’re not in that kind of situation yet, and all this panicky talk is not helping to calm things down. My fairly uninformed opinion is that civil unrest within Taiwan is more of a danger than ‘liberation’ by the mainland.
But, if China makes a move, my guess is that the US will sacrifice Taiwan in exchange for a resolution to the Korean issue. They are too overstretched already to fight a war of this magnitude and would rather defeat the axis of evil than oppose an emergent superpower.
I’ll extend Crazy Hour and offer everyone a drink on the house. I’ve got a Swedish flag somewhere which I’ll hang outside so everyone can feel safe. The DJ will play last requests.
I’ll extend Crazy Hour and offer everyone a drink on the house. I’ve got a Swedish flag somewhere which I’ll hang outside so everyone can feel safe. The DJ will play last requests.[/quote]Yes, but does your place have a good panoramic view of the sky? I’d pay double price for a beer if I could see PLA jets and missiles flying in, and triple price if I get to see them shot down by the ROCAF or US Navy. 
You can book a table on the balcony. Then just look up and watch the show. Free shots every time a PLA Mig (Yak - whatever) goes down.
I’d feel safer if you draped a French flag (the internationally recognized symbol of surrender) outside Carnegie’s. The Chinese might not know what a Swedish flag means.
The headline from the SCMP reads:
“PLA put on combat alert over island’s crisis
Beijing has ordered the PLA to be on combat alert, ready to attack Taiwan if the crisis on the island worsens, according to mainland sources.”
That worries me…
Hey kids, wanna take the ‘jokes’ to another thread?
Smiling in the face of adversity is what gives Taiwan its strength. The issue is serious, granted but humour is worth defending and is what differentiates this worthy island from those humourless bastards across the Strait.
Smiling in the face of adversity is what gives Taiwan its strength. The issue is serious, granted but humour is worth defending and is what differentiates this worthy island from those humourless bastards across the Strait.[/quote]
Just don’t want to see a useful thread descend into daft quippery.
Smiling in the face of adversity is what gives Taiwan its strength. The issue is serious, granted but humour is worth defending and is what differentiates this worthy island from those humourless bastards across the Strait.[/quote]
Just don’t want to see a useful thread descend into daft quippery.[/quote]
Fair Enough.
I hear the French soup kitchen is also better. 
Regarding earlier posts of PLA alert status and possible attack?
Never happen…
The Kitty Hawk is probably sitting off the east coast somewhere, while it’s attack subs prowl the strait. All of which sit comfortably under AWACS coverage from both Taiwan and the carrier group…The entire Taiwan strait would be sitting well within the carriers air coverage…
I’d be ten times as nervous as a PLA pilot right now…
Even if this IMPOSSIBLE scenario came to pass, those of you expecting to watch the show over Taipei would be disappointed…Better to rent a boat and go out around Penghu…There you could watch the PLA air arm get swatted down like flies. Would the PLA risk it?..Even if they would, from a military standpoint, it would be a slaughter of epic proportions…Providing of course, The US chose to intervene.
Lastly, for all you US citizens out there…There are provisions in place for your Non-Visa spouses…Seats for all will be availible.
Let the PRC postulate all they want…Anything more would be military and economic suicide…
Each nation is responsible for evacuating their own citizens. Dependents are almost always treated as citizens. During the missile crisis on the eve of the first election here in Taiwan, elements of the Fifth Air force and Seventh fleet were prepared for the evacuation of 100,000 US citizens and their dependents. The way I understood it at the time that evacuation would be coordinated with other US allies to evacuate nearly all allied foreign nationals from the island.
If the PRC were seriously making plans for an invasion there would be an increased US military presence in the region. At least two carriers and a couple of amphibious groups. There are not which means that there is no intelligence to support the claim of a PRC invasion. The Kitty Hawk is out there for Taiwan’s moral support and to coordinate an evacuation in case of civil war.
Britain has an exemplary history of evacuating its nationals, with the evacuation of HK and Singapore in WWII being two shining examples. 
“attack” - interesting choice of words… not defend the island, bring peace to the island, stabalize the island, but attack it. And this from “mainland sources”? Comforting. 
This means jack-shit to us second-class citizens who aren’t allowed to legally have spouses, but still have partners we would marry if we can and don’t want to leave behind.
Personally myself, I am not worried… As long as Bush is in office I really dont think China has the balls… I know many of you dont like bush, and as for me, he is just another politician, and anyone in politics, I dont like, but I know for sure, the whole world knows that bush is not scared to go to war and will not back down from anyone no matter what the motive is… So myself is not concerned, but in Nov. if Kerry gets elected, I really dont care, but I will be worried about China at that point…
Plus, dont quote me, since I really dont remember exactly what or where, but was recently reading some reports and China will not have an easy time invading… Taiwan has a very good defense system, and China’s navy from my understanding is not up to speed, then topped with someone like bush, who (or Tom Delay I forgot) stated that he will not let a murderous country such as China take over a place like Taiwan, in charge I feel no need to worry…
Anyways, my wife already has a 5 year visa to the states, but I dont think she would leave her family and I know I wouldnt since I am closer to them than my own… anyways so guess I would be in for the long run… But hey, being raised like I was, I would never run from a good fight.
Will foreigners be allowed to stay if war breaks out? HUH?
Did I miss something? What’s all this talk about WAR?
[quote=“stragbasher”]
But, if China makes a move, my guess is that the US will sacrifice Taiwan in exchange for a resolution to the Korean issue. They are too overstretched already to fight a war of this magnitude and would rather defeat the axis of evil than oppose an emergent superpower.[/quote]
A lot of experts said the same thing. :s
It’s ironic the reason that US helped defend Taiwan around 50 years ago is “Korean War”. 
[quote=“lane119”]Will foreigners be allowed to stay if war breaks out? HUH?
Did I miss something? What’s all this talk about WAR?[/quote]
If foreigners want to stay, they could just stay since Taiwan government has other things to worry about.
After PRC takes over Taiwan, will the PRC government allow them to stay?
My guess is also yes.