Will the Chinese risk their own lives for another Pearl Harbour (Taiwan)?

A couple of years ago I was discussing the possibility of US troops on the ground. Many of our fellow members dismissed it probably because it sounded too unconventional. Well, unconventional because it went against the conventional view that US could make China an ally and US needed the Chinese market.

Now we have the news that US carriers making port calls in Taiwan is something that can be openly discussed and considered. http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3199369
As far as I know Joeseph Bosco and Ian Easton had published similar views in as early as 2015.

It is very hard to convince anybody that the Chinese would risk their green cards, their kids graduation, their purchase orders and USD for the sake of a Pearl Harbour operation. The most well-off Chinese have already been leaving China with their money.

The Chinese can make serious damage to US forces in TW but they can make even greater damage on Okinawa. The overall survival rate of US forces is higher if Taiwan is added to the pool of options.

Another obvious thing to ask is, what should a PLA soldier on Taiwan defend himself with against attack from the air? Where is his anti-air defence?

Let’s forget the sheer stupidity of China starting a “hot war” with the only other super power in the world for a minute and assume that for whatever reason they think a surprise attack would be a good idea and give them an advantage. Well, it wouldn’t. 1941 was a long time ago. The US fleet is way too decentralized and much vaster than it was 75 years ago. Plus, modern radar technology and satellite intel would cause any “surprise” to be uncovered long before it actually occurred. It’s a moot point since it’s just not going to happen, at least not this way and not over Taiwan (a relatively small trophy).

What would the Chinese do to US if US makes port calls in Taiwan?

Would that make the Chinese upset and as a result help North Korea with nuclear weapons? Or would the Chinese militarize the South China Sea to get even at US?

Pretty sure this has already started, has it not?

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The Chinese might try and pass a UN resolution condemning our actions, launch cyber attacks on the US through a third party, escalate their currency wars with us, maybe even boycott American goods.

One thing they wouldn’t do is launch a “Pearl Harbor” style attack on our fleet. They’re not suicidal.

A UN resolution. That’s interesting.
Cyber attack is ongoing, and it seems that the US public is already aware of it. Boycott of American goods will generate negative feelings toward China… Trade/currency war is also ongoing or looming anyway.

What if China just pretends business as usual and wait for another POTUS that is more sympathetic to the cause of the Great Chinese Rejuvenation? There are 4 Chinese aircraft carriers being built.

US navy has more tonnage on water than Russia and China combined, and that of course doesn’t include all the American allies who’d gladly side by 'Murica rather than with China in case of a conflict.
Also, any conflict in this area would lead to short and long term consequences to all Asian countries involved, and pretty much nothing for “mainland” US. Asia is surrounded by American bases.

Now that China has been moving away from a Communist regime (from the economical point of view), they’re not likely to go completely bankrupt and end up in a situation where using the army is the only way to acquire more resources.

I know that in most Asian cultures the idea of “saving face” is well rooted and can be often seen in political exchanges much more prominently than in Western countries, but I don’t consider it possible for China to decide to enter a conflict against US, Japan, South Korea and India (basically starting out as being surrounded right off the bat) over Taiwan, a small island with next to 0 natural resources.

I agree China is not driven by natural resources, neither is Russia.

China could promise US that they’d demilitarize their bases in the South China Sea in exchange for US withdrawal from Taiwan plus more. Now, to force US to negotiate, China may attempt dangerous encounters over Taiwanese ADIZ.

By the way China’s Varyag carrier has already been busying passing through Taiwanese ADIZ a couple of times already.

What if the US wants a conflict? What if some factions think a war with China is advantageous and winnable? What if they want to escalate the tit for tat, get some legitimacy and make profit from war? It has been done before.

What if the Chinese elite needs a distraction? What if there is a need of show of force, kill the chicken to scare the monkey? Also heard that one.

In this era, there are a thousand other ways of war that do not include troops. Cripple Internet, blast economy, viral and dirty bombs. I would not look down on the rage of the Chinese if they feel loss of face, and the consequences.

US feels quite brave relying on teh number of troops and weaponeery, but so far, it has been defeated by less technologically advanced. From Vietnam on, including 911 and Bengazi, not sophisticated weaponery has inflicted serious damage. And it could get worse.

I would recommend caution and civility on both sides. Less “pulling the hog’s tail”. It will kick.

And taking about risks:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/12/asia/china-djibouti-military-base/index.html

China joins the US, France and Japan, among others, with permanent bases in Djibouti, a former French colony with a population of less than one million residents.
Though small in both population and size, Djibouti’s position on the tip of the Horn of Africa offers strategic access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The strait, which is only 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, connects the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean beyond.
One of the world’s most important sea lanes, millions of barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through the strait daily, according to GlobalSecurity.org.

…

Paice points out that China made a substantial investment in Djibouti – about $500 million, according to reports – to build the Djibouti portion of a rail line to the capital of neighboring Ethiopia.
“It’s a confluence of these factors – trade, military, and stability in the host country’s government” that brought China to Djibouti, Paice said.
Meanwhile, for Djibouti, it’s all about money, Paice said. “This is a fantastic get-rich-quick scheme – to rent bits of desert to foreign powers. It’s as simple as that.”

Kaboom.

Against factions and fighting groups with ideology is different vs fighting a country’s military. PLA troops have never seen combat and although it would not be easy, PRC knows they can’t win in traditional warfare vs the US. They can probably last inland for a while but their port cities would get destroyed if had to pretty fast.

Next war has to be over before anyone fires the big guns, because the big guns have the power to wipe all life. So MADD is side skipped, and the possibilities then are endless.

Just a small note; I think you meant MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). MADD is Mothers Against Drunk Driving. I don’t think that’s who China needs to worry about, although they’re hostile in their own way and have been known to kick some ass. :stuck_out_tongue:

Mmm tiger moms against MADDs… sounds like a worthy fight. :sparkler:

It’s not going to be USA versus China if a war like that ever happens. If nuclear war didn’t break out, you’d likely have China, Russia, Iran, North Korea versus USA, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, maybe Canada, some European countries, maybe Saudi Arabia. Not sure how the Indian subcontinent, South America, Africa or the rest of the Middle East would align themselves. And then there is supposed to be NATO, if one is attacked all are attacked thing.

Plus one of the factors that lead to the defeat of the USA in Vietnam was that the American soldiers didn’t care to be there. Viet Cong felt they were actually fighting for something. I think Chinese soldiers would be motived in fighting to retake Taiwan, but I don’t see US troops as being that motived.

They will never take the island! I’ll go Rambo on them and hid out in the mountains with gorilla warfare tactics

How will you get weapons to fight, as guns are illegal for the general population here?

Well, I guess if you go Rambo, you’ll start with a large knife and then take their weapons from them.

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Uh. I think you’re trying to make a point, or have a discussion, but for me it’s just a mishmash of real objective activities, potential activities and some total impossibilities. So it’s hard to really comment or discuss about it even though I’m interested.

I see. So the question I raised was, whether the Chinese would risk their own lives for another Pearl Harbour style attack on Taiwan, some time after US military presence is established there.

My personal view: They won’t.

What do you think?