Let’s watch the latest Planet of the Apes for inspiration.
When I was a kid I used to hear about gorillas fighting for this cause and that cause all over the world. And I was like, what is UP with these gorillas man… Why they gotta be doing all that shit for? Hijacking aircraft and all that.
It’s said that Chinese sleeper cells in Taiwan number 3000+.
Also, could something like Iraq “de-Baathification” lead to radicalization of KMT old guards? They could try to establish a pro-China stronghold in Taiwan and fight a civil war until a “peace accord” can be brokered, and in the process China will get involved to negotiate an eventual unification…
That could be how the guerrilla warfare scenario might unfold.
(singing) “It’s a long road, when you’re on your own…”
Addressing the original topic, both China and the USA are likely to be dissuaded from war not only by the (remote) prospect of MAD, but also by the probable economic effects. If US-China trade (not to mention other forms of trade that would be affected) is cut off, the resulting recession would cause domestic political difficulties for the PRC in particular. On the other hand, if economic problems arise anyway, then a military adventure might be just the thing to boost the popularity of the PRC government. (If they win.)
Would China cut tourists and steal a diplomatic ally as a counter measure?
This is what I’m most worried about. Chinas centrally planned economy might have undergone some liberalisation in the past few decades - but it will still suffer the same fate of all socialist economies. What better way to keep the CCP legitimate than by starting a war? “Hostile foreign forces are lowering your standard of living!”, etc etc.
…with the added beauty that mostly heidao carry guns in Taiwan these days, hence, making it easier for any form of semi organized upheaval.
The case scenario would be that the Chinese attack from outside while an internal heidao unit attacks and decapitates the ROC government from within, facilitating conquest by means of not being anyone to give commands for defense.
Talking about ol guard, even though they are mostly dead or in China/US, I worry because if your generals are not loyal to the country, who will defend it? I worry that when the Chinese attack, the generals will give te order to stand down, and with enough agents inside, any counterattack efforts will be twarted.
Taiwan can use the star spangled banner to boost self-confidence and to intimidate the ChiCom and ChiNats old guards. I think it’s fair game in the world of unrestricted warfare. Ans since TW is “not allowed” to have its own flag that would inspire the population and its own military, I think we we have to get creative. The ROC flag of course is synonymous with KMT, with Chinese Taipei, with defeat.
Don’t forget the so called “hei dao” is heavily aligned with the TW govt > how many politicians are connected you ask?
The head of this association answers the criticism plainly enough:
Asked for comment on Monday, Chin said that he knows “right from wrong” and is “not afraid of being targeted for united front work.”
Says a think tank:
In recent years, China has given up on intermediaries and has opted to directly cultivate “red power” in Taiwan, Tung said.
However, the government should not prevent the nation’s village and borough officials or students from visiting China, Tung said, adding that “Taiwanese should cross the Strait to see exactly what Chinese Communists are all about.”