Will the KMT vouchers be open to counterfeiting?

Hi,

When the DDP were proposing a referendum, the KMT argued that the cost of printing the ballots were too expensive, now we have the KMT proposing to print multiple pieces of paper for each person.

When the DDP proposed a tax rebate, the KMT argued there was no money in the kitty, now we have the KMT proposing $80 billion of debt to fund the voucher system.

But apart from all that hypocrisy, my main concern is the security of the voucher system. Normal currency has a number of counterfeiting safeguards, but what safeguards will these vouchers have? In my mind, they sound like monopoly money.

I wonder whether organized crime will use counterfeit vouchers to exchange for goods that can be resold for real currency?

In my mind, a tax rebate would have reduced the risk of counterfeiting.

Regards
Michael

[quote=“mkegruber”]Hi,

When the DDP were proposing a referendum, the KMT argued that the cost of printing the ballots were too expensive, now we have the KMT proposing to print multiple pieces of paper for each person.

When the DDP proposed a tax rebate, the KMT argued there was no money in the kitty, now we have the KMT proposing $80 billion of debt to fund the voucher system.

But apart from all that hypocrisy, my main concern is the security of the voucher system. Normal currency has a number of counterfeiting safeguards, but what safeguards will these vouchers have? In my mind, they sound like monopoly money.

I wonder whether organized crime will use counterfeit vouchers to exchange for goods that can be resold for real currency?

In my mind, a tax rebate would have reduced the risk of counterfeiting.

Regards
Michael[/quote]

Probably. WOuldn’t be surprised if the KMT got involved in that too.

Simply remitting the money into the bank accounts of taxpayers would be far more efficient as well as more environmentally friendly.

I hear DPP members and sympathizers won’t be getting these vouchers either… :sunglasses:

Why was there a reason for the KMT to do something for those who oppose them… they never did before…

They are hoping the DPP and their sympathizers will get their vouchers from CSB swiss account… :sunglasses:

But seriously in terms of economy could counterfeit vouchers ruin the economy? It’s meant to be a stimulus without actually flooding the market with NTD. Because what they are trying to prevent are people’s mentality to hoard cash in these times.

hoard cash that people don’t have is kind of difficult… people had stagnant salaries and increased cost of life for the last years, so it all came down to this… and with more and more unemployed people, and more and more factories moving to China, the future is not so good…

Maybe next year we’ll have a 633…

But if the government gave people 3600 NTD, people would try to hoard it, instead of trying to spend it.

I recently came back from a business trip around the Pacific Rim. US, Japan, South Korea, HK, Taiwan, and China. It’s not just Taiwan that going through the economic slowdown. In fact, Taiwan is doing better than others in some area.

Good to see you’re still fightin’ the power after your political imprisonment.

Unless the power in question happens to be the Chinese government :laughing:

Hi,

In Australia, liquidity of cash is normally controlled by the central bank via interest rates. Lower rates and smaller deposit ratios means more cash injected into the economy. Businesses can borrow more and expand as loans are easier, growing businesses mean more jobs and more jobs mean higher demand and higher salaries are businesses fight for skilled workers. More jobs mean more job security and lower unemployment.

Once the economy is stable, the central banks increase rates, repayments becoming higher and the excess cash in the economy is sucked back into the central bank.

This could be done with Taiwan.

The other means is to entice multinationals to build sites in Taiwan. In Australia at the Norwest Business Park in NSW, this was done with the State Government offering tax incentives. I know, I use to work for such a company.

The difference between Norwest and the special airport zone the KMT is suggesting is that the overseas companies weren’t exempt from the laws of the nation, only they had a financial incentive for a limited time to establish themselves.

In my view, rather than the KMT encourage business to flee to China totally. What they should do instead is offer tax rebates based on an import/export ratio, for example;

Taiwanese PC manufacture makes chips and components in Taiwan, when they are sent to China for assembly (where the bulky items like cases are made), Taiwan Customs put a “market value” on the components.

Then the PC is assembled in China and boxed, they are then shipped back to Taiwan. The deal is, if the item is shipped via a Taiwanese port, the Taiwan company gets a credit back based on the ratio between the manufactured components and finished product. The idea behind such a scheme is;

a) Tax incentives for manufacturing more components in Taiwan; and
b) Increase business through Taiwanese ports.

In regards to item (b), if more ships pass through Taiwanese ports, then the cost of handling drop which encourages more shipping, with more shipping other industries in Taiwan then benefit from cheaper shipping which would stimulate other areas of the economy. More shipping also means the cost to import is cheaper so food and other basics become cheaper too which would reduce the cost of living which would increase buyer power even if salaries do not increase too much.

Just a thought
Michael

That would only work if PRC was closed off to the outside world, because that situation occurred in the 70’s when China was not open, and only a few pioneering “investors” took the risk in PRC. The problem is that manufacturing is cheaper in China. Even if the ROC govt gave tax incentives for shipping out of Taiwan ports, the actual cost is higher.

Meaning just because you’re using tax revenue to artificially reduce cost doesn’t mean this is a sustainable model for shipping or PC manufacturing industry in Taiwan.

One of the problem with the central bank model is that Asians are notorious savers, even at 0% interest they rather sit on cash than risk it in other investments or spend it on consumer items. The vouchers will stimulate the economy without adjusting interest rates. No one hordes vouchers just like no one hordes casino chips…

[quote=“ac_dropout”]But if the government gave people 3600 NTD, people would try to hoard it, instead of trying to spend it.

I recently came back from a business trip around the Pacific Rim. US, Japan, South Korea, HK, Taiwan, and China. It’s not just Taiwan that going through the economic slowdown. In fact, Taiwan is doing better than others in some area.[/quote]

wow - hoarding 3600 NTD. Such a large amount to keep stashed away.

Many people will be able to “hoard” it though the coupon scheme. Just take the 10k in cash that they will get in coupons, put that in the bank, then use the coupons for what I would have bought with the cash I have already. See, easy.

Depends who you ask in Taiwan. Not everyone can afford the fabulous life. 3600 NTD might mean a lot to them. Or it can mean lunch for them.

I don’t follow, you plan to take 3 other people’s coupon and put them in the bank, then try to use them again?

The goal is to increase the GDP by .64%, I don’t see how hoarding it in the bank is going to help. Making counterfeits might help.

Is the sky blue?

The news were reporting how costly these vouchers will be, as many security features will be added on, such as watermarks, electronic readable only strips, etc.

Printing this special tickets will also be a lenghty process, which is why they are saying that maybe they will have the stuff ready by Jan. 19, leaving people one week only to collect their stuff.

I would be more worried about all the scammers drawing out evil plans to deprive good folks from their money than counterfeiting.

“Will the KMT vouchers be open to counterfeiting?”

Well, KMT was going to issue rt-mart gift certificates but it didn’t want to make it too obvious.

RT mart will ensure the authenticity. For them, it’s not that difficult.

Actually it’s easy to make counterfeit proof vouchers. When you print vouchers generate a bunch of truly random numbers and store them in a list and print one on each voucher as a barcode. When the voucher is used the barcode is scanned and you check the number is on the list. If it is, remove it and pay up, otherwise tell the guy with the voucher something has gone wrong and for him to contact the government. They can check if he’s up to no good.

A counterfeiter can guess numbers and probably fake vouchers but you just make sure the numbers are long enough that the chance of getting it right is very low. That’s how pay as you go phones work and as far as I know no one has cracked that.

Hi,

But wouldn’t that require store owners to have equipment to scan such codes?, and as I understand it, these vouchers are now permitted to be used by non registered enterprises. Although they cannot convert to cash, they are now allowed to accept them and then in turn use them with registered businesses. However this may result in these unregistered businesses being caught in the middle where they are exposed to fake vouches in exchange for real goods or services where they are unable to be compensated as they potential try to cash in vouchers they have received which are fake.

And here’s another thought, that is to stop the KMT from doing this before every election? They have the majority in the government. It might be an easier why to systematically buy votes?

Just before each election they state trigger a “stimulus package”.

Regards
Michael

All merchants need to deal with fraud in their business. Unauthorize use of credit cards, fake travels checks, bounced checks, counterfeit real money, etc. So it is not like the merchants are not going to be prepare for these things. I don’t think given the timeframe these vouchers will be valid and limited market many people are going to try to make counterfeits.

But a really cynical interpretation is that if I knew there was going to 10% counterfeits on the market, I would only spend enough to produce 90% of the the vouchers the market needed, and let the counterfeiters make the other 10% at their own cost. I would redeem 100% of the coupons presented in the timeframe of course. My goal as the government is to raise the GDP by .64 percentage points. I could care less what is stimulating the economic activity below. Even counterfeiters need to spend real money to bring their product to market. Not to mention the regulators will make some money cracking down on these counterfeiters.

There are two psychological problem to these vouchers. The first being even though they are fake money, they will also have to subjected to inflation, so 3600 NTD today, 7200 NTD tomorrow. In the long run it is not sustainable because people will become accustom to them. Do retail sales coupons really move enough of the masses from 1 retailer to another? They get jaded most of the time and use them as wee wee pads for their pets.

The second is that voters are fickle, what’s blue today is green tomorrow. So if the blue use it the green can use the same tools as well.

No, the green wanted tax rebates, which is 100x more practical and probably 2.9M NTD less expensive than the coupons…

Maybe we all be buying new cars, if the government goes on and puts on the idea of cutting of the excise tax (25% for cars below 2000, 30% for the ones above)… we have to wait and see how much they will cut to know if we can all start running to buy that Lexus we were dreaming off… and the cars elder than 10 years will get more discount, so expect a big parallel market of car dealers selling you 2 cars (one oldie for you to bring back the next day and get a bigger discount on that new 2010 model…).

I think that they should also go and remove the import tax (do Chinese cars pay tax?), because then we can all be driving good cars.

As for the future, here it is what is considered the most beautiful car in China:


The Chery A3

And the “macho latino” version…



The Alfa Romeo Mi To

Hard to choose…

The KMT led LY is now planning to allow foreign spouse to get the vouchers now. What a responsive gov’t we have now a days… :laughing:

This morning my wife mentioned that only Chinese spouses are elligible but not other foreign spouses, but I can’t verify that. It seems the logic is either that families with Mainland wives are considered lower income and deserve assistance or that they are less foreign than ‘real’ foreigners… Or both…