Sorry, but your "definitive metric" seems a pretty poor test to me. The great majority of people I know in the industry, and every responsible investor I know saw what was coming. And of course if you ask anybody in the industry, they will tell you they saw it all coming and that they moved their clients to cash. Yeah, right. Only a statistically insignificant number got clients' money out of equities and structured finance tainted fixed income investments at appropriate times. Of the few that did, hardly any will be able to repeat that performance when the next bust comes around. Only a tiny handful had the foresight to actually short structured products, and these people were only able to do so because they were among the few math geeks in the industry who were not on the sell side of that business. In short, they were one trick horses, not the kind of people you would want to keep your money with cycle after cycle.
Managing your investments is not rocket science. Understand what risk is and what your level of tolerance for it is. Manage your own porfolio rather than expose yourself to manager/advisor risk. But I think you know that.