How immediate do you think the threat of invasion by China is?
They could attack any day.
Within the next 2-3 years.
Soon after the 2008 Olympics. 2008-2012.
By 2030.
It will be a long way in the future, but it will happen.
They’ll never do it.
Events change so fast, it’s impossible to say.
0voters
[Note: Poll added by moderator]
With the talk the other day about China planning to capture or kill Taiwans leader and with Taiwan showing off there army the other day, my question is, Is the threat of China attacking becoming more realistic in the near future. I am planning to come there in Jan but a lot of what I have been reading lately is making me second guess. A lot of people here(Canada) are telling me not to go anymore, while others are saying, this is been going on for 50 years, nothing will happen. I want to know what people that are in Taiwan think about this.
A lot will hinge on the next USA administration and their position on “One China”, and also the ROC year-end legislature elections and their position on the ROC constitutional amendment.
If Bush wins the white house and a DPP majority is in the LY I wouldn’t recommend going, There will be a lot of
Well thing are up in the air and there are a lot of factors that might affect things. It’s kinda the same thinking as living in California. Everyone knows there is going to be a Big One but it hasn’t really stop people form living in or visting California.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]A lot will hinge on the next USA administration and their position on “One China”, and also the ROC year-end legislature elections and their position on the ROC constitutional amendment.
If Bush wins the white house and a DPP majority is in the LY I wouldn’t recommend going, There will be a lot of
Thanks for the replies, so as for now, would you say I should still come, or wait and keep an eye on those situations. And its a better thing that Kerry wins the election. Thanks
China’s leadership is divided and indecisive. If they have a choice between doing something with any risk or doing nothing, they will choose to do nothing. Attacking Taiwan would be tremendously risky since failure would mean the demise of the Communist Party. They are not going to do anything.
US policy towards China is unlikely to change no matter who is elected. The basic facts on the ground are not going to change in the sense that China is challenging US hegemony in Asia while the US is not planning to leave Asia in the near future.
The sabre-rattling thing is like a spot on your face. It’s irritating, and ugly, but there’s not much you can do about it but wait for it to go away. And, it’s not going to turn into anything worse.
Taiwan independence is the key factor, and I think Feiren is right that the Chinese government is not likely to take big risks. I also agree that U.S. policy will not change no matter who is president – we’ll back the status quo and do everything possible to avoid a direct confrontation.
Taiwan currently has de-facto independence, democracy, etc. at a price that is not terrible – although its links are “unofficial”, the fact is that it has representative offices throughout the world and very substantial business links with all the major developed nations in the world. This is a wonderful, special place that only appears to be at risk in scenarios involving an attempt by Taiwan to make “official” an independence that it already enjoys. What’s in a name?
US policy is changed radically by one key factor – the war in Iraq means that the U.S. citizens are less willing to commit American lives to any “non essential” war (i.e., a war that is not essential for the protection of the homeland). There may be occasional flare-ups in the fight for Asia-Pacific hegemony (such as the EP-3 incident), but the fact is that most Americans are going to not fully understand how long-term U.S. interests might coincide with a strong Asian presence. Some will not even understand the basics of any conflict – true to well-established American geographic ignorance, many Americans, unfortunately, confuse this country with Thailand.
Personally I find this statement displaying a lack of understanding of the issue of Taiwan independence. I was struggling how best to explain. Then I read the following article and it sums up how retarded the One-China issue is and how (if I was Taiwanese), this constant buckling to China would piss me off no end.
Do you mean lack of “understanding” in: a) the sympathy/empathy sense; b) the issues of international law and history that got Taiwan and Mainland China into the present-day situation; or c) realpolitik involved? Personally (no underlining or bolding necessary for me, thank you), I have great sympathy for the people who suffer from the stupidities of the current artificial situation. I have some understanding of the history and legal issues behind the situation. Further, it is my sense that I have had to balance my strong feelings for the Taiwan people with my knowledge of the poltical and legal realities that underlie their plight. Personally, I find it a bit arrogant for you to say I must not “understand” just because you don’t agree with me.
Having read the article, I feel bad for the kid whose Taiwan-flag-bearing stamp design for UNESCO got tossed out, but he’s not the only one suffering from the current cross-straits reality. Did you really think Mainland China and their lackeys were going to let a UNESCO stamp go out with an ROC flag on it? No matter how cute the kid is? PRC diplomatic staff don’t have much else to do to distinguish themselves other than to find novel opportunities to crap on the Taiwanese. Some-odd 1 million Taiwanese (about 4% of the population) work in Mainland China, and I also feel bad for the families split up (temporarily and permanently) by the realities of cross-straits economic activity. Before anybody gets up on a high horse about the Taiwanese who have invested in or work in Mainland China, these guys fill a broad political spectrum. My extended inlaw family includes a lot of people who are very “green” and yet have been sent to Xiamen, Shenzhen, etc. by their employers. There are a lot of people hurting from a variety of annoying aspects of this.
If Taiwan ever gets its full independence recognized under international law, then they will not do it by anything less than a very careful, patient effort that waits for the right time and circumstances. Taiwan is currently a democratic, prosperous, technologically advanced nation – it has a lot to lose by anything that is not well considered. As Feiren points out and I concur based on some understanding of PRC problems, it is very unlikely that Mainland China would take any unilateral actions.
Personally I find this statement displaying a lack of understanding of the issue of Taiwan independence. I was struggling how best to explain. Then I read the following article and it sums up how retarded the One-China issue is and how (if I was Taiwanese), this constant buckling to China would piss me off no end.
If more people recognized true nature of Taiwan independence, i.e. a divisive and equally chauvinistic ethnic movement aimed at the desinicization of Taiwan all for the sake of satisfying Hokklo egoes and subtle-racism formented by KMT-era inequalities, I don’t think many people would be any more supportive. What I find surprising is that so many foreigners willingly allow themselves to be absorbed into this grand illusion of Taidu. One reason maybe the naive and might I add self-serving romantacist fiction of being somehow involved in a so-called struggle for democracy and independence. The other reason is less subtle yet equally probable. The water in Taiwan makes lao wai’s bat shit crazy.
It’s a funny world when even Taiwan aboriginals are not considered “Taiwanese” enough.
Most Americans, Canadians, Australians, New Zealanders, etc. of a certain age at least have some sense of the irony and ridiculousness of these kinds of assertions – mostly because our own countries have terrible histories of their own with regards to indigeonous peoples. If Vice President Lu succeeds in getting rid of all the aboriginals, then Taiwan will just be a big, ol’ ethnic-Chinese enclave … playing perfectly into the hands of the PRC.
Lets get back to the real issue here - is it safe to come here. Yes absolutely. Is China likely to attack - highly doubtful.
cmdjing
What you fail to realize is that Taiwan’s democracy and independance are already a fact. To say anything else would be blind and naiive. This is more about the Ego’s in Beijing totally unwilling to lose face and escalating a situation that will in the end bring no good to anyone.
Realize as well that the desinicization of Taiwan is more of a backlash to the mainlands agressive and arrogant attitude towards the island.
Asking a people to give up their freedom and democracy to a dictatorship is laughable and downright feudal idea. The best thing the Taiwanese can do is wait for the leaders in Beijing to pull their heads out of the dark ages.
Can we get off this - this is not what Relly asked about at all…
come on out here and don’t expect any major wars to start up anytime soon.
if a war starts up, it will almost certainly be because of an ill-timed declaration of independence
if Taiwan unilaterally declares independence, don’t look to the U.S. to jump into the thick of it;
thus, you should probably count on coming out here and having a great, peaceful time in democratic Taiwan… and bring a giant (preferably roof-sized) Canadian flag just in case we’re all wrong.
personally i fink if china’s saber rattling keeps the hordes of canucks at bay then rattle away (sorry but i felt like a bit of canada-bashing)…really tho’ it’s a very, very distant threat isn’t it? plus even if an attack was made china would surely allow an airlift to occur because it would be a massive PR disaster to attack a country with (how many of us are there?) such a large foreign population.
One thing I find surprising is the way these tunnel-visioned, arrogant, communist halfwits think that anyone opposed to communist subjugation of Taiwan is immediately Taidu. To me, that is naivety in the extreme.
I’ve been here since the dark days of Fishlips and his thugs and there is no “so-called struggle for democracy” any more. That battle is already won. The best part of that is how much it pisses off all you pinko scum.
And we’re STILL waiting for your response to hsiadoah. What’s the matter, pinko? Cat got your tongue, boy?
Will U.S. intervene if China “does” attack? Maybe, maybe not. U.S. has too much at stake in China in terms of financial investments and future market expansion for American businesses. On top of that, China has been part of the US “terrorism fighting network” of friends. American politicians hands are increasingly tied the more the two countries work together economically and politically.
That said, China risks losing its credibility as an established and up and coming developing nation to attract more matured businesses to invest in China. And U.S. probably won’t sit quietly and watch a “free” and democratic “nation” being picked on for believing in democracy and freedom.
But all in all, China is probably very unlikely to make any sudden moves against Taiwan. Politically the two sides are sworn enemies; but behind all the political fuss, a lot of money is being made by the collaborations of the businessmen on both sides of the straight. And money talks no matter who’s in power…
Unlikely, yes, but you have to allow for miscalculation. If the DPP & TSU get a majority in the year-end legislative elections, vote for a new constitution and throw in something about renaming the country “ROT” (Republic of Taiwan), some general in China may go ballistic and push the button. And if it happens, it will probably happen without warning.
Living here is a bit like Russian roulette, isn’t it?
As for the USA entering the conflict, my opinion is that it will hardly matter. Once the missiles have been launched, it’s a done deal.
The best thing I can recommend is to live in a rural area (but not next to a military base). And have lots of rice in stock. Or else rent a house right next to the Presidential Building - all your troubles will end quickly.
cheers,
Robert
“The Pope? How many divisions does he have?”
Josef Stalin, when told to respect the power of the Pope
I always wondered about this; perhaps it’s due to some personal insecurity. It wouldn’t be surprising, considering that at least some such foreigners are in situations where they are dependent on Taiwanese, i.e. girlfriends, spouses, etc. in their day-to-day lives so much that they feel a need to be more proactive and in command of the situation. A “cause” such as this romanticized version of Taiwan independence would fit the bill quite nicely.
(sorry but i felt like a bit of canada-bashing)…really tho’ it’s a very, very distant threat isn’t it? plus even if an attack was made china would surely allow an airlift to occur because it would be a massive PR disaster to attack a country with (how many of us are there?) such a large foreign population.