China’s slave-labor factories producing knick-knacks can be produced by any random third-world nations with industrial capacities - such as Mexico, which is much closer to home, anyway (where the jobs were stolen by Chinese laborers “willing” to work for $100 a month). So economically, China needs the U.S. much more than the U.S. needs China. Economically, China is easily replaceable by, say…Burma. Thailand. Malaysia. INDIA. And those are only the Asian countries…
Grand “illusion”? I can say whatever the FUCK I want in Taiwan. I can insult the Taiwanese, call them cowards, worthless surrender monkeys, etc., all I want, and NO COP IN TAIWAN IS GOING TO ARREST ME. Democracy in China? Ha ha ha. Nobody posting in this thread would be allowed near any internet message board debating these issues in the PRC. Nope. Not a chance. AC Dropout, if he were in China, would be serving hard time in a labor camp for unruly dissidents, instead of spamming on a message board. Isn’t that true? Be an HONEST man, and admit it - what I say is true, isn’t it?
Slink back to your hole in the U.S.A., where you have the freedom to post whatever nonsense you want, hypocrite and coward.
[quote=“Poagao”]
I always wondered about this; perhaps it’s due to some personal insecurity. It wouldn’t be surprising, considering that at least some such foreigners are in situations where they are dependent on Taiwanese, i.e. girlfriends, spouses, etc. in their day-to-day lives so much that they feel a need to be more proactive and in command of the situation. A “cause” such as this romanticized version of Taiwan independence would fit the bill quite nicely.[/quote]Oh. And what then of foreign supporters of the KMT? More or less delusional?
ac_dropout…
Your belief that issues can be can be freely debated in public is ignorance of the highest order…
What of the doctor who shed light on the SARS epidemic in China - what happened to him - taken into custody for “reeducation”:
[quote]
"Jiang Yanyong, the military doctor who exposed China’s SARS cover-up last year, has been released after seven weeks in custody during which he underwent “study sessions”, family members say.
Jiang, 72, who had been taken into custody on June 1 months after calling for a political reassessment of the ill-fated 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, returned to his Beijing home, but was under strict orders not to talk to the media, his family said. "[/quote]
Even trying to try fantastical comparisons between that and laws against libel and slander in the states is ridiculous to the extreme.
[quote=“hsiadogah”][quote=“Poagao”]
I always wondered about this; perhaps it’s due to some personal insecurity. It wouldn’t be surprising, considering that at least some such foreigners are in situations where they are dependent on Taiwanese, i.e. girlfriends, spouses, etc. in their day-to-day lives so much that they feel a need to be more proactive and in command of the situation. A “cause” such as this romanticized version of Taiwan independence would fit the bill quite nicely.[/quote]Oh. And what then of foreign supporters of the KMT? More or less delusional?[/quote]
I haven’t come across so many of these, personally.
I think there’s a misunderstanding here; when I read “the illusion of Taidu” I didn’t read it as “independence is an illusion”. Rather, that making a public declaration of independence was something some individuals think of as their grand, romantic, selfless cause.
I totally agree with Sandman about people who don’t welcome a communist invasion being assumed to be hard-core Taidu activists. Ironic that that very mistake was made only a few posts later. Caring about Taiwan doesn’t necessarily require one to support Taidu. Not supporting Taidu doesn’t necessarily mean supporting China. One could even argue that the worst thing for Taiwan to do is provoke China by declaring independence rather than continuing negotiations, though I realize, as I stated above, that this is an unpopular view on this board.
Equally, supporting the principle of Taiwan independence doesn’t necessarily mean supporting a formal declaration of independence. I suspect the majority of pro-TI posters on this forum would consider any formal declaration like that (in the current situation) a mind-numbingly stupid and provocative action (while maintaining that any subsequent war was still the fault of the PRC).
It’s perfectly possible to post lengthy rants about the sins of the PRC in denying Taiwan international recognition, the evil of the one-China principle, the right of the Taiwanese to do what they want without fear of invasion, etc. while still understanding the realities of the situation. Just because the president has to be careful what he says & does, it doesn’t mean we have to too!
I, personally, don’t think there are many ‘formal independence at any cost’ westerners living/posting here. Those that are have, in my view, just let their idealism overrun their pragmatism … I find it hard to believe it has anything to do with their love-life.
cool…are you building lots of bunkhouses for your forumosa friends up here in the big smoke robert? oh and don’t forget to stockpile the taiwan pijiu too
No one seems to have talked about another big deterrent against a Chinese invasion. It’s Japan. You can be pretty sure that Japan will get involved one way or another once China makes a military move.
Far more Japanese than American interests are at stake in a war over Taiwan. Once China gains control of Taiwan, Beijing can easily cut off shipping routes from Malacca – that means oil tankers from the Middle East will be stopped from reaching Japan. China can cripple Japan’s economy from Taiwan. And Japan certainly has no reason to believe China won’t do that. It’s a life and death thing for Japan.
And Japan’s self defense forces may be small, but they are well-trained and armed with advanced weapons (Aegis destroyers, F-16s). They could give the PLA a pretty hard time in the East China Sea. I don’t think China has a good enough deterrent to stop the Japanese from getting involved over Taiwan.
No one seems to have talked about another big deterrent against a Chinese invasion. It’s Japan. You can be pretty sure that Japan will get involved one way or another once China makes a military move.
Far more Japanese than American interests are at stake in a war over Taiwan. Once China gains control of Taiwan, Beijing can easily cut off shipping routes from Malacca – that means oil tankers from the Middle East will be stopped from reaching Japan. China can cripple Japan’s economy from Taiwan. And Japan certainly has no reason to believe China won’t do that. It’s a life and death thing for Japan.
And Japan’s self defense forces may be small, but they are well-trained and armed with advanced weapons (Aegis destroyers, F-16s). They could give the PLA a pretty hard time in the East China Sea. I don’t think China has a good enough deterrent to stop the Japanese from getting involved over Taiwan.[/quote]
Silly rabbit, ridiculous geopolitical machinations are for Tom Clancy!
True, the reunification of Taiwan would pose fairly serious strategic ramifications for Japan. Unfortunately, you won’t see them acting in any concerted way to stop this even if they will chose to follow the U.S. lead. The most likely outcome will be tut-tuts and no-nos from Japan. Considering how it is currently illegal for the JSDF to wage war, this will likely be the result.
[quote=“mofangongren”]
US policy is changed radically by one key factor – the war in Iraq means that the U.S. citizens are less willing to commit American lives to any “non essential” war (i.e., a war that is not essential for the protection of the homeland). There may be occasional flare-ups in the fight for Asia-Pacific hegemony (such as the EP-3 incident), but the fact is that most Americans are going to not fully understand how long-term U.S. interests might coincide with a strong Asian presence. Some will not even understand the basics of any conflict – true to well-established American geographic ignorance, many Americans, unfortunately, confuse this country with Thailand.[/quote]
OR…a chinese invasion of taiwan would be a neocon’s wet dream. what an easy sell to the american public. scrappy little democratic island invaded by the big bad communists. a good excuse to pull troops out of iraq and all the news media pull all their reporters out of iraq as well to cover the next big story. attention shifts away from the drudgery of rebuilding iraq and onto the perfect war for the necons. americans don’t know about taiwan? no problem. some sappy hour long profiles from fox and cnn talking about the heartwarming story of the little island that could will change that quickly.
short of an invasion of the us, there is no plausible war that could generate more support in the us than defending taiwan against china.
There’s so much US monetary interests in China that they would not allow any US government action to jeopardize those interests. They will supercede any geo-political concerns. The longer the wait, the weaker Taiwan’s position will be. Taiwan essentially is a pawn in the US-Sino chess match.
wolf_reinhold: I merely meant that after Iraq, Americans have had enough of “non-essential” wars. Sort of like having eaten one huge shit pie covered with whipped cream, one might think before ordering the same dish again during the next meal.
It is interesting to note that Japan’s navy is the world’s fourth-largest, after the U.S., Britain, and Russia. Since about ten percent of Russia’s can actually float in the water, we should probably bump Japan up a notch.
It’s actually illegal for Japan to have an army or navy at all. So they’ve got a Self-Defense Force.
It is also interesting to note that the Japanese press has said that the Japanese Self Defense Force’s naval capabilities are sufficient to TOTALLY DESTROY the Chinese navy in less than a week.
Furthermore, the Japanese press commented that the Japanese Self Defense Force’s navy, if it ever got into a conflict with the US Seventh Fleet, would be TOTALLY DESTROYED in a few days.
And some of the foolish people who post on these forums consider the Chinese navy a match for the US Navy? Ha, ha, ha … (These laughing sounds are not mine, but Secretary Rumsfeld’s … as I was discussing this entire matter with him the other day … )
Lei Feng and his lot have been “liberating Taiwan” for the last 50 years. I wonder what’s keeping them ?
It’s one thing to murder your own citizens lock stock and barrel as in 1989, but it’s worth looking at the spats between regiments in the PLA over operations in Beijing on the fourth of July. The 27th Army of the PLA were confronted with hostile People’s Armed Police as well as other regiments who had been sent in, bizzarely unarmed. If in 1989 the CCP couldn’t convince the majority of the army to take on unarmed civilians in Peking, what chance have they now of sending them to their deaths in a very uncertain war against Taiwan ? If the PLA is told to take Taiwan, and even if that means the USA will stand on the sidelines, I have my doubts how committed they would be to it. And I think the CCP leadership knows this. If the PLA is broken over a war with Taiwan, China falls. This is exactly what Deng feared in 1989, and to prevent an army revolt he send armies in from the sticks who did not know the situation in Peking. Plus, Jiang has not retained supervision of the PLA because its unimportant. He knows the top brass feels the loss of prestige which resulted from their being used to put down Tiananmen.
Just as in the 50s and 60s when China was shouting loudest about “liberating Taiwan” the PLA is too important to be sacrificed against its will in an overseas war they cannot win.
There will be no military invasion, but as to the economic dependence on China I can see no solution to the potential for China to pull the plug on Taiwan’s income. China of course encourages it, and most Taiwanese companies are going to take the short-term profit and run, and to hell with the political future. The higher-ups will all be chewing the fat in the States by then anyway. And I’m not convinced by arguments that China needds Taiwan more than Taiwan needs China.
Whoever orders an invasion of Taiwan will be a person who is willing to take risks–especially the risk of reprisals back home in case the invasion doesn’t work. So, does this sound like anybody in the Chinese leadership these days?
From here, it looks like they’re all looking over their shoulders, afraid that the others are going to stab them in the back. Maybe the military has the clout to push something like this through, but aren’t they divided into competing factions as well?
Last thing the PLA wants to do is fight someone. Last time they did, the Vietnamese kicked their arses with their own weaponry.
Talking about invading Taiwan is great for domestic consumption; sounds silly on the world stage. The PRC will just wait until Taiwan goes to it. They waited for HK and they’ll wait for Taiwan. If Taiwan doesn’t want to go it won’t happen. But there is a fair chance if given an excuse they will attempt to cripple Taiwan’s economy. Perhaps one day a legislature will be elected consisting of people who actually give a shit about Taiwan the island, and who wouldn’t up and bugger off to the States given half a chance. How many ex-legislators live in Taiwan ?
