How immediate is the threat on Taiwan from China?

Politics Taiwan Politics
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41

Tempo Gain,

If I remember the chain of events correctly in 1996. The Japanese were even more insistent than Taiwan that USA send more military presence to the area. Which is why Clinton sent 2 instead of 1 carrier group.

Are you suggesting why blow out a match by yourself, when you can get 2 Americans to do it for you.

So many miscalculations in that escalated into the 1996 Missile Crisis on all three sides (PRC, ROC, USA). It’s almost funny in retrospect how WWIII was adverted.

It’s even funnier that this whole thing was started because LTH felt it was unfair he couldn’t get a visa to Hawaii during a lay over to South America at the time and had to sleep on board the plane.

Great World Wars have started over assassination and invasions. But over a USA visitor visa, that would have taken the cake in my book.

42

Of course not. The missle crisis from your view is most likely PRC just lauching a missle against LTH dropping of the “one China” policy on the campaign trail, which led to getting LTH elected.

I see the missle crisis as a series of events which turning point was in 1995 when LTH was granted a visitor visa to Cornell, after he donated $2 million dollars. PRC announce this was a breach of Sino-USA policy

The reason for that move was because in 1994 LTH was on a trip to South Africa and was refused a visa in Hawaii and spent the night on the plane.

The PRC annouced their missile testing in july 1995 and miscalculated ROC and USA reaction.

ROC lobby the USA for a visitor visa, miscalculating PRC response.

USA issued the visa, digested the news on the missle testing thinking it was normal. Miscalculating PRC, ROC and Japans response.

Reacted in my opinion just a little too late, if it ever was the real thing. For pete sakes the plans of the PLA missle testing was out there for 9 months for the open public to read.

The 2nd aircraft carrier was send 3 days after the missle testing.

If I send out wedding invitation 9 months in advance for RSVP, what do you make of the guest that shows up 3 days late.

43

Didn’t one of those missiles in 1996 landed in Japanese territorial waters? That may explain their concern.

44

[quote=“ac_dropout”]Of course not. The missle crisis from your view is most likely PRC just lauching a missle against LTH dropping of the “one China” policy on the campaign trail, which led to getting LTH elected.

I see the missle crisis as a series of events which turning point was in 1995 when LTH was granted a visitor visa to Cornell, after he donated $2 million dollars. PRC announce this was a breach of Sino-USA policy

The reason for that move was because in 1994 LTH was on a trip to South Africa and was refused a visa in Hawaii and spent the night on the plane.

The PRC annouced their missile testing in July 1995 and miscalculated ROC and USA reaction.

ROC lobby the USA for a visitor visa, miscalculating PRC response.

USA issued the visa, digested the news on the missle testing thinking it was normal. Miscalculating PRC, ROC and Japans response.

Reacted in my opinion just a little too late, if it ever was the real thing. For pete sakes the plans of the PLA missle testing was out there for 9 months for the open public to read.

The 2nd aircraft carrier was send 3 days after the missle testing.

If I send out wedding invitation 9 months in advance for RSVP, what do you make of the guest that shows up 3 days late.[/quote]

no, I agree the cornell visit really set china off. i wouldn’t be surprised if the plan was hatched then. i see it as a hamhanded attempt to influence the election. it was obviously posturing on both sides, which china got the worse of in my opinion. the timing of events made it appear they were backing down.

in essence however it was a match. not to say that they would if something serious did happen, but japan was not going to come rushing over for that.

45

But I am glad all three sides learned their lesson.

PRC - No more live missle testing during their annual invasion drills.

USA - No more visitors

46

[quote]Falcon,

Yes did you see how fast those Japanese came to Taiwan’s rescue in 1996. Boy they were so fast I barely saw them coming or going.[/quote]

I dont think Falcon was suggesting that Tokyo shouldve intervened in that situation. Probably the Falcon meant that Japans navy could destroy Chinas handily in the event of a naval battle.

47

I recall quite a bit of bellicose rhetoric in 2000, I guess they finally learned their lesson as there was little this year. Considering those bullets, perhaps they had decided to try another course???

48

Every time the electricity goes off I reach under the bed for my little yellow and red flag…

49

Modern history of Taiwan, which at different points of history belonged to Dutch and Japanese starts in 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek lost in the civil war on the mainland, and fled to Taiwan, where he established his regime and considered his government in Taiwan as official and ruling over China.
The population of the island that time mainly consisted of 85% of native Taiwanese and only 15% constituted Chinese mainlanders who came over with Chiang Kai-shek. Through the tight control of the political system, police, military, educational system and media they managed to control predominating native population.
Officially Japan gave up its sovereignty over Taiwan in 1951-52 by concluding the San Francisco Peace Treaty. The importance of the treaty that with lost control of Japan it was not determined who was the beneficiary and it was stated that “…the future status of Taiwan will be decided in accord with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”
Hence, according to the right of self-determination specified in the Charter of the UN, article 1.2 people of Taiwan has right of self-determination, and therefore can decide themselves to which country belong or whether to be an independent state.
Later on, in 1971 with opening US diplomatic relations with China and Taiwan loosing its representative status of all China in UN, US policy makers acknowledged China position on

50

Seeing as this topic came up again [url=http://tw.forumosa.com/t/will-china-attack-taiwan/15699/1 I’m bumping it, and adding a poll with more options than the simple yes no.

Results of the opther poll were:
Will China attack Taiwan?
Yes 31% (7)
No 68% (15).

Brian

51

I voted, “Events change. . . .” That option was closest to my view.

My actual position is something like this: I believe the Chinese government/army is driven to want Taiwan, that it’s as if some kind of mechanism or organism was set up years ago in the Chinese government and army (and maybe the populace, too), so that as far as I’m concerned, no reasons are needed, and no timetable is needed. Maybe it won’t happen, but if it doesn’t, it’ll be because something rendered that mechanism/organism inoperative.

After a lengthy hiatus, I’ve taken to watching TV again lately in a kind of desultory fashion. In other words, I channel surf. Sometimes, I’ll catch the middle of a movie in which someone is fleeing a vampire or a werewolf or dealing with some other sort of outlandish threat, and I’ll think, “Dang, how’d you even get yourself into that situation?”

That’s what US involvement in Asia reminds me of, including Taiwan.

[quote]On January 5, 1950, expecting the island to fall soon into communist hands, President Harry Truman stated that “the United States will not provide military aid or advice to Chinese forces on Formosa.” His secretary of state, Dean Acheson, on that same day had this to say: “The President says, we are not going to use our forces in connection with the present situation in Formosa. We are not going to attempt to seize the island. We are not going to get involved militarily in anyway on the island of Formosa.” All signs indicated that the United States had finally washed its hands of the Chiang regime and that civil war soon would end, leading to China’s reunification.

But some six months later, on June 25, 1950, North Korean armor and infantry slammed deep inside South Korea. President Truman and his advisers immediately reassessed the intentions of the Soviet Union and communist-ruled North Korea. They concluded that “the occupation of Formosa by Communist forces would be a direct threat to the security of the Pacific Area and to United States forces performing their lawful and necessary functions in that area.” Thus, on June 27, President Truman informed the United States and the world that “I have ordered the Seventh Fleet to prevent any attack on Formosa. . . .”[/quote]
Linda Chao and Ramon H. Myers, “The Divided China Problem: Conflict Avoidance and Resolution,” (essay on the website of the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University)
www-hoover.stanford.edu/publicat … /101b.html

So a long time ago, as a corollary to our other dubious project, we committed ourselves to protect Taiwan. I’m for not letting that commitment get blown out of proportion.

Great selling point! :unamused:

Sigh

[quote]The president [Eisenhower] noted in his diary that [Winston] Churchill was preoccupied with the “completely fatuous” dream of [the US and the UK] sitting on an “Olympian platform” in relation to the rest of the world. [/quote] bank.rug.ac.be/contragram/opmerken.htm (I wish I had the actual quote for this; I stumbled on it in the library a few years ago while goofing around in Ike’s diary.)

I hate to be a party-pooper, but I think we’ve gotten involved in enough Olympian-platform-type projects for one 100-year period. Let’s take a breather for a century or so.

My main hope is that that big son-of-a-gun across the strait simply gets fatally clogged up by its own self-contradictions before we’re (i.e., the US) done in by our penchant for sticking our nose in everybody and his brother’s dog’s veterinarian’s chiropractor’s business.

52

A tad bit off topic, but my search for the definition of Taidu led me here: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-08/12/content_364718.htm

Nothing like a good bit of propaganda to make your day, eh? :smiley:

53

Good piece, and I apologize because actually my post got off topic, and yours is exactly what the thread is supposed to be about, in my opinion.

54

Sometimes I wonder if the Nationalistic brainwashing actually makes the author believe that, or they’re just doing it to curry favor… :s

Kinda sad.

55

I was perusing thru the Asia Times online and came across this story. I don’t remember seeing it on here, if its a duplicate then 86 it with my apologies. :smiley:

[quote]
The year to fear for Taiwan: 2006
By Wendell Minnick, Apr 10, 2004

TAIPEI - If China ever makes the decision to invade Taiwan it is unlikely to be a large-scale Normandy-style amphibious assault. The reality is that China is more likely to use a decapitation strategy. Decapitation strategies short circuit command and control systems, wipe out nationwide nerve centers, and leave the opponent hopelessly lost. As the old saying goes, “Kill the head and the body dies.” All China needs to do is seize the center of power, the capital and its leaders.

If China decides to use force to reunify the mainland with what it terms a breakaway province, the window of opportunity is believed to be 2006. This would give China a couple of years to clean up the mess before the 2008 Summer Olympics. Most analysts estimate that China’s military strength will surpass Taiwan’s defense capabilities by 2005. So 2006 - the Year of the Dog - is clearly the year to fear. -snip -

The Taiwan takeover scenario
China’s deployment of its special forces and rapid-deployment forces, combined with air power and missile strikes, is the most likely formula for successfully taking Taiwan with the least amount of effort and damage. The military acronym KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid!) is in full force here. Special forces, which blend strength with deception and flair, offer China laser cutters rather than sledge hammers for defeating Taiwan’s armed forces.

An airborne assault directly on Taipei by China’s 15th Airborne Corps (Changchun), with three divisions (43rd, 44th, 45th) would be the first phase of the assault, with additional paratroopers being dropped in Linkou, Taoyuan and Ilian, to tie up Taiwan’s four divisions assigned to the 6th Army (North). A Chinese airborne division contains 11,000 men with light tanks and self-propelled artillery. Some intelligence reports have indicated that China was able to airlift one airborne division to Tibet in less than 48 hours in 1988. Today, China’s ability to transport troops has greatly improved. China is expected to be able to deliver twice that number - 22,000 - in two days.

Taiwan’s 6th Army has seven infantry brigades: 106, 116, 118, 152, 153, 176, and 178. The 152/153 Dragons and the the 176/178 Tigers are said to be the best. Also a direct assault on the 6th Army’s 269th motorized brigade, 351st armored infantry brigade, and the 542nd armored brigade would be mandatory for Chinese forces. - snip -

Assassins, saboteurs would be prepositioned
Pre-positioned special forces, smuggled into Taiwan months before, would assassinate key leaders, and attack radar and communication facilities around Taiwan a few hours before the main attack. Infiltrators might receive some assistance from sympathetic elements within Taiwan’s military and police, who are believed to be at least 75 percent pro-Kuomintang (KMT), and hence, pro-unification. Many could use taxis to move about the city unnoticed. Mainland Chinese prostitutes, already in abundance in Taiwan, could be recruited by Chinese intelligence to serve as femme fatales, supplying critical intelligence on the locations of key government and military leaders at odd hours of the night; death is the ultimate aphrodisiac.- snip -


Identity crisis within Taiwan’s military
Taiwan’s military also faces an identity crisis. The idea that Taiwan is part of China still resonates strongly within the military. For example, unit patches worn by soldiers often bear the outline of China, not Taiwan. The 6th Army, 8th Army, 46th Division, and Marine Corps have the image of China on their patches. The 117th Infantry Brigade has an eagle landing on mainland China. The 34th Division, 157th Infantry Brigade, and 200th Motorized Brigade display the Great Wall of China. None of the unit patches or emblems bears the image of Taiwan. In fact, visitors to military bases see no evidence whatsoever that they are located in Taiwan. China is the central theme of the whole military experience for Taiwan’s conscripts. Even the names of naval vessels have Chinese themes. -snip -

New pro-Beijing government swiftly sworn in
Once Taipei was captured, a new government chosen by Beijing would be sworn into office. There would be plenty of Taiwanese politicians to choose from. It is well known there are many pro-China legislators who have investments in China and more than a few who have had private meetings with Beijing officials. The inauguration would be conducted in the spotlight of the international media, giving it some psychological legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. There would be too many pro-China people in the US State Department - privately relieved the Taiwan issue was finally settled - to say anything in Taiwan’s defense. - snip -
b[/b]
atimes.com/atimes/China/FD10Ad02.html[/quote]
An interesting scenario portrayed. Pretty good read.

56

No invasion, never. no need to.

57

The only reason China has not already attacked Taiwan is, IMO, because they do not yet have a reasonable chance of success. As soon as they think they can pull it off, they will try. Top level US military analysts agree with this assessment. 2006 -2007 is seen as a “window of opportunity” for such an attack.

I don’t understand why the people of Taiwan aren’t in a constant state of readiness, like Israel is. At the very least there should be an active Civil Defense system in place.

Cola wrote

If we want to accept this (and diplomats SOOOO want to accept it), we have to ignore everything China’s government and military are doing and saying. Maybe an attack will never come, but there can be no doubt that China is threatening it and actively preparing for it.

58

Good article, already discussed a year ago though.

forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.php?t=16601

59

[quote=“4nr”]Good article, already discussed a year ago though.
forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.php?t=16601[/quote]
Thanks, I thought this might have been the case. As I mentioned. I tried using the ‘search’ feature but turned nothing up.

60

[quote=“4nr”]Good article, already discussed a year ago though.

forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.php?t=16601[/quote]

But there’s a better article, it appeared in the Taiwan News about 2 moths ago (months, moths, what the diff?), written by a retired defense official in USA, published in some Florida newspaper. I will find link and link here. it spells out exactly why, in plain English, China will NEVER invade Taiwan Island.

etaiwannews.com/Opinion/2005 … 805839.htm