Let’s for the hell of it assume that Wang wins, moves the KMT towards the middle, and get rid of some of the less pleasant baggage - the most true blue diehards among them.
Might that lead to a split in the blue camp, where you have some blue lights, who will go for the middle ground, will consider compromises with the DPP (“Opposition votes that work”), and who will gear up for a battle over the Hoklo/Hakka vote, and you on the other side have the last 10%, who are lead by an ageing Song?
Anybody, any comments to this?
(I would like it to happen, but don’t think it will).
I think it is in Wang’s interest to try to keep as many blues in the KMT as possible while at the same time taking care of his existing support base. After all, the KMT needs to look different from the DPP in campaigns. It’s an uncanny task but all politicians try to juggle the balls this way, don’t they?
Also, as the legislatiure’s speaker Wang already has a lot of resources under his control so quite a few deep-blues might become light-blue and stay under him. What do you think?
Why do you say that? As far as I can see, although they seem to be tipping the scales to help Wang, Ma still has the better chance. After all, this is going to come down to a vote (whether it’s 350,000 or 1 million people), and Ma is both popular with the old mainlanders and rank-and-file members. Has Wang really got a high enough profile to get more votes?
Ma certainly has more charisma, but Wang is the old-time vote-buying captain. Ma does not have a good vote machine behind him. He might do well in Taipei, but I’m not sure about the rest of Taiwan.
And would Ma even bother running if he didn’t have a chance? I don’t think he’s to keen on being humiliated and hurting his chances in the run-up to the 2008 presidential election … unless this is his opportunity to break away from the KMT, form a new party, and run as his own man in 2008 … wonders never cease in Taiwanese politics …
Party elections are much easier to rig than government elections. I don’t think Ma can compete with Wang in those dirty tricks. Surely Wang has the upper hand at the party center and looks like he’s going to set election rules his way.
Wang Jing-ping has done so well in his current job because he’s made sure that all sides have had a feed at the trough. I don’t think his following among the public is that good, but in the legislature he’s the man. Then there’s the kissing up to Magoo, and the nice words to the ‘lets-dig-up-fishlips-and-have-him-run-the-country’ brigade. Cake walk.
Why do you say that? As far as I can see, although they seem to be tipping the scales to help Wang, Ma still has the better chance. After all, this is going to come down to a vote (whether it’s 350,000 or 1 million people), and Ma is both popular with the old mainlanders and rank-and-file members. Has Wang really got a high enough profile to get more votes?[/quote]
What Levitator said. Wang is old-school. Lots of people are beholden to him – just as hsiadogah said. Ma doesn’t have anyone. He only has his good looks, whatever charisma and dignity he can muster, to combat the KMT machinery that is angling to use Ma for it’s purposes only (and that isn’t to help Ma).
People may personally like him, but not enough to put their necks out for him. It’s rather pitiful to see him work the system but I give him credit for still going at it despite the odds against him. And we’re not even talking about him vs. the DPP candidate.
I hope I’m not going off topic here. But what about Soong? I know he is not a contender for the leadership, but what will his relationship be to the KMT once Wang or Ma take over?
Do you think Soong will come back to the KMT in some way or still go his own way? If he goes his own way then that will make the 2008 Presidential election a three-horse race, the result of which would be anybody’s guess.
If Wang wins the KMT chairmanship, I think he will try to keep Ma in the KMT for use as his running mate while also trying to keep him off the presidential candidacy. Ma can either play second fiddle to Wang, or keep trying to use his charm to build support and beat Wang into second fiddle position come 2008.
Or he can leave the KMT and try to compete with Soong for top blue dog position (which I think is the least likely scenario). I think both Ma and Soong need to find native Hoklo running mates to make a credible pitch at the presidency so they are not likely to run on the same ticket.
If Ma wins the KMT chairmanship, Soong’s political life will be finished, I think. Soong can hardly compare with KMT chairman Ma.
I guess Soong’s political career is quickly coming to an end. But if Wang wins the KMT chairmanship, Soong will still be able to hang on to a small mainlander-unification crowd because this group won’t trust a KMT led by a Hoklo, even though Ma could significantly weaken Soong’s support base if he stays in the KMT, cooperate with Wang and chip away Soong’s supporters.
In any case, Soong’s prospects are not looking very good.
If there are two pan-blue candidates in the 2008 election, it should be a doddle for the green camp to win it, especially as they’ll have a much better candidate than last time, and one who is more moderate and thus more acceptable to the middle-ground voters, in Hsieh (or, if he trips up and falls from grace between now and then, in Su).
I still fear that Soong will find some way or other to get his hands on the presidential candidacy for a united pan-blue ticket, and would then have a very real chance of winning if, as I expect, there’s a big enough wave of disappointment and disillusionment with the performance of Chen and the DPP.
If Wang Jin-ping gets the KMT chairmanship, there is a chance that he might eliminate Ma’s threat to him by picking Soong as his running mate. But the chance of Soong leading a united pan-blue ticket is very very slim, I think.
I don’t think Ma can really unite with Soong. It’ll be like putting two scorpions in one unification bottle too small. Also, neither Ma nor Soong can grab the presidency without a strong Hoklo partner. As long as Ma remains in the KMT, it will be hard for Soong to return.
Wang will surely play Ma off against Soong and miminize both men’s threat to him.
On the other hand, if Ma wins the KMT chairmanship, Soong’s chances in 2008 will be close to zero. That is why Soong is so brazenly supporting Wang in the fight for KMT chairmanship.
I’m surprised there’s been such little discussion of this race lately … the big election is coming up this weekend. Who will it be? Ma Ying-jiu or Wang Jinping? The “dirty politics” and buying votes problem has come to the forefront again with Ma accusing Wang of reverting to these old campaign tactics, and Wang has countered by threatening to sue Ma for making false accusations. If it were to go to court, though (which would be a stupid move for Wang), I think Ma’s accusations would probably stick. What started off as a “gentleman’s race” is getting more and more heated by the day. Wang has even said that he will step down as vice chairman of the KMT if Ma wins.
Could this split the KMT? Any guesses as to what the outcome could be? How much influence would Lien Chan retain if Ma won? Any polls on who is in the lead? This could be a more important decision on Taiwan’s future than the last presidential election.
I hope he does… party machinery being what it is, if that were to happen, Wang would be pretty much finished and the old school blues supporting him and not Ma would be up the creek without a paddle.
[quote=“Yellow Cartman”]I hope he does… party machinery being what it is, if that were to happen, Wang would be pretty much finished and the old school blues supporting him and not Ma would be up the creek without a paddle.[/quote]I don’t think so. Ma has no real support among the heavyweights, so if he wins the backroom-boys will just isolate him into impotence. But it won’t come to that since Wang will win, one way or another.
From what i’ve heard, Ma has a slender lead in the polls, but Wang has more control of the party machinery to get ‘his’ voters to the polls. Noone really knows what the turnout is going to be (what with this being the first real KMT election), so everyone’s guessing.
YC: If Ma wins I don’t think it’ll be the end for Wang - he’ll still have a lot of support (more than Ma?) with senior members, and Ma will still have to work with them. However, if Wang wins I don’t know what happens to Ma …
Also, neither Ma nor Soong can grab the presidency without a strong Hoklo partner. As long as Ma remains in the KMT, it will be hard for Soong to return.