I agree with David’s reading, and that’s also what I saw in the China Times after I posted.
I’d add that if Ma wins, the KMT will end up (stay in?) the hands of the deep blue. As the KMT becomes more clearly the ‘mainlander’ party, Taiwanese members will begin to drift away since the KMT will be so far out of the mainstream. The DPP has got to be loving this. They can be happy with whoever wins!
I’d guess if Wang wins, it will be the beginning of the end for the KMT, since he seems to be the most committed of the two candidates to resist reform and keep following Lien’s lead. This might be why the greens are more likely to criticize Ma instead of Wang; if Ma wins he is more likely to try and create a viable, modernized KMT to compete with the DPP and TSU than an antiquated and corrupt KMT that consistantly shoots itself in its one remaining foot.
So if we read the opiions of people here, the result is quite interesting.
If Ma wins, the KMT will remain deep blue and stay out of the mainstream, with the collapse of the party the result.
If Wang wins, the KMT will remain corrupt and out of touch, with the collapse of the party the result.
Most interesting.
[quote=“Mr He”]If Ma wins, the KMT will remain deep blue and stay out of the mainstream, with the collapse of the party the result.
If Wang wins, the KMT will remain corrupt and out of touch, with the collapse of the party the result.[/quote]
Well, not really. Under Lien Chan the KMT has remained deep blue and corrupt. Under either Wang or Ma one of those is going to change, so I see progress either way.
Anyway, people have been predicting the collapse of the KMT since about 1940. I don’t think it’ll collapse unless it runs out of money (and given the finances of the KMT, noone will notice it hasn’t got any money for a good few years after the event anyway)
I, too, will be very interested in seeing what Ma does if he doesn’t win, especially if it’s because of crooked electioneering on the part of Wang and Lien’s people. Will he stand up to them? Leave the party? Sit back and be a good boy? It’ll be a great test to see what kind of cajones he’s got, since that’s what a lot of people criticize him about …
My reading of the KMT folks I know runs something along the lines of:
I think it
The thieves are rallying round their own man, Wang. Of course they would: Ma threatens to clean up the KMT and put their interests in jeopardy, whereas Wang just guarantees to stand by his cronies and keep the spigots of jobbery well open. Now the biggest thief of all has declared his support for a kindred soul, putting the last nail in the hapless white knight’s coffin.
The vote will, of course, be rigged to ensure that the barely articulate arch-dissembler is pronounced as winner – I don’t see even the remotest glimmer of hope for anything else. I’d love to be surprised, but I’m sure it will all go according to script, and that the bagman already has it in the bag.
[quote=“Omniloquacious”]The thieves are rallying round their own man, Wang. Of course they would: Ma threatens to clean up the KMT and put their interests in jeopardy, whereas Wang just guarantees to stand by his cronies and keep the spigots of jobbery well open. Now the biggest thief of all has declared his support for a kindred soul, putting the last nail in the hapless white knight’s coffin.
The vote will, of course, be rigged to ensure that the barely articulate arch-dissembler is pronounced as winner – I don’t see even the remotest glimmer of hope for anything else. I’d love to be surprised, but I’m sure it will all go according to script, and that the bagman already has it in the bag.[/quote]
Then I guess the real question is how Ma will react. Will he accept this kind of result or fight back?
I expect that Ma will hang his head, pledge his loyalty to the party, and hunker down to resist an onslaught by the Lien-Soong-Wang cabal, who will be intent on setting their dogs to tear out his throat while he’s down, desperate to make sure he can never again pose a challenge or threat to their wielding of power in the pan-blue camp.
I’d tell Ma to keep doing his good job with Taipei City, improve his message, broaden his base, and give it a go next time around.
He really needs a modern political consultant to help polish up his image. He’s got a nitch he can explore and possibly exploit. Think out of the box.
Okay, i’m babbling…
I guess that’s the safe option. However, if he loses this time, then what makes you/him think he’s got a chance next time?
A (high risk) alternative: At the next legislative elections, the number of legislators will be halved. That means that those current legislators who have supported Ma will almost certainly be dumped (after all, loyalty to the KMT chair is everything). So, if those legislators know they’re on the way out, they might be willing to follow Ma in a breakaway … (possibly to the PFP? Soong must know that his party is about to die unless something happens to it)
I guess that’s the safe option. However, if he loses this time, then what makes you/him think he’s got a chance next time?[/quote]
Hard to predict 3 years time what will happen. But Taipei City is a safe place for him. Universally, people recognize that he’s done quite a decent job of it here. So he can use the time to regroup.
Ma is finished if he can’t win this election. If he loses, it means that outside of Taipei or Taichung, an unassimilated waishengren can’t get elected.
If Ma wins, the old guard will isolate him to the point of the party falling apart for lack of having someone who’s clearly in charge. If Wang wins, quite a lot of KMT folks in Taipei and the rest of the island who favor reform will give up on the party. This whole election evokes thoughts about deck chairs and the Titanic.
Yeah. The election is really important. If Wang wins, expect to see the KMY become much more centrist and to move away from the hardline pro-China views of Lien Chan. If Ma wins, see J.T.'s analysis above.
Can’t say I agree with that … surely it would just mean that it’s impossible to win an election when the KMT party machinery is against you (which is hardly news).
Remember that it’s only a year ago that an amazingly uncharismatic, politically inept, strategy-less, serial-loser waishengren got 49.9% of the vote in Taiwan.
What do you think about this:
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or
The election’s over, so I’m closing this. Please direct new posts along these lines to Ma wins leadership of KMT.