I created a forum for this Robin…
forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.php?t=23804
I went to the link you posted, read down a little, and got the following stuff which shows Bush 263 to Kerry 248 but with the trend in Kerry’s favor. EDIT: Mr. XP, please use your reading skills slightly less cynically be reading my whole quote, not the mere part which supports your beliefs. Again, Republican supporters of Shrub show sophistry to support fatasy beliefs. If Kerry does actually lose, I will be even more gob smacked at the blindness of half the American electorate:
[quote]Consequently, I have made a new map that excludes the pollsters that admit they only work for one side. It does include pollsters like Gallup, which is officially neutral but appears to be including far too many Republicans in the samples. This new map always includes the most recent poll in each state, and then goes back up to 3 days to look for other polls to average in. A given pollster is used at most once and partisan pollsters are not used at all. The new map and spreadsheet use the suffix ‘z’ and are on the menu under the name Averaged map. It gives a score of Bush 263 to Kerry 248, but remember, tiny shifts in a few states can alter this score radically.
Here is an update on yesterday’s Zogby tracking poll. Kerry has pulled even with Bush. Each one is polling 47%. Four years ago, Gore was behind Bush by 3% at this point in the campaign, yet he ultimately won the popular vote. There is less room for movement tis time because there are fewer undecideds, but it is always possible that some voters will change their minds due to events occuring in the U.S. or abroad.
Candidate E-10 E-9 E-8 E-7 E-6 E-5 Final
Kerry 46% 45% 46% 47% 46% 47%
Bush 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 47%
Nader 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2%
Undecided 4% 5% 3% 3% 4% 3%
Now look at the same time period for the 2000 election, plus the final results.
Candidate E-10 E-9 E-8 E-7 E-6 E-5 Final
Gore 43% 42% 42% 41% 42% 42% 48.38%
Bush 44% 45% 45% 46% 45% 45% 47.87%
Nader 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 2.74%
Other 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1.01%
Undecided 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 0%
Zogby wasn’t the only one predicting a big win for Bush at this point four years ago. On Oct 29, 2000, Gallup released a poll showing Bush ahead 49% to 42%. In the early days of November 2000, Zogby correctly noted a sharp trend towards Gore as the undecideds finally bit the bullet. Zogby ended up predicting Gore would narrowly win the popular vote. Gallup stayed the course and ultimately predicted that Bush would win the popular vote by 2%. Of course, we now know Gore won the popular vote by about 0.5%.
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