Will there be a drop in housing prices?

Nope. Even though it is a corrugated iron structure, the rents in Xindian are totally whack, especially for main road places. To be honest, 60 or 70k is the average normal. And it was 115k to be precise.

And working 15 hours a day ain’t that much to brag about.

For a food place, I thin at least they have some movement, even at 100 ntd bientang fare or 350 whole roasted duck. It is those fancy clothes stores do worry me. How the heck do they make the rent? I never see a soul buying there.

It has to be said Xindian has a lot of residents and commercial activity, but no shopping center except for the Carrefour, so the local shops and traditional markets do a pretty good trade!

Latest I’m hearing from Taiwanese now is be careful about buying in Linkou or Sanxia etc cos they will lose value. I personally think highly of Sanxia , it’s matured well , nice new buildings and areas to walk around and the housing costs there are still half of Taipei city. Linkou is similar too. I told my colleague 10% drop in Sanxia is 1 million but would be 2 million in Taipei, it’s better to focus on the living quality and affordability.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]It has to be said Xindian has a lot of residents and commercial activity, but no shopping center except for the Carrefour, so the local shops and traditional markets do a pretty good trade!

Latest I’m hearing from Taiwanese now is be careful about buying in Linkou or Sanxia etc cos they will lose value. I personally think highly of Sanxia , it’s matured well , nice new buildings and areas to walk around and the housing costs there are still half of Taipei city. Linkou is similar too. I told my colleague 10% drop in Sanxia is 1 million but would be 2 million in Taipei, it’s better to focus on the living quality and affordability.[/quote]

… which is so weird since one would thin that with the opening of the MRT line, Linkou and Sanxia would gain value instead. But there are so many things affecting what is basically a “gut” feeling based market, too “emotional”, instead of real, solid value tag price.

Wish I had enough money, as if the green win, the market will do summersaults.

In other factors, due to the worsening air and general environmental conditions in China, the Taishen which were living it high in Shanghai and other high end cities are again hightailing it to the Renegade Island and are not looking for second or third homes.

Had an interesting talk about housing with a money man at the bank the other day. Property taxes are going to skyrocket in the near future according to him because they’re going to be determined on the true, sky high value of property rather than on some artificially low valuation as they have been up till now. Also capital gains taxes are going to take a big chunk out of any sales profits, even if you wait ten years for them to be at their lowest before selling. Bottom line according to him: don’t buy real estate now unless you plan to live in it long term.

Of course all this should be good for the average person but only if he or she waits for the full impact of these pending changes to kick in before buying.

I still don’t think they are going to be taxed anywhere close to true values, but it is adjusting up constantly and yes there is a new system coming in next year, the city governments seem to be particularly focused on getting more revenue from land and property.

Edit-
Seems like they are moving towards actual values !
tax-news.com/news/Taiwan_Ann … 67271.html

As for the capital gains, it depends how long you hold onto the property, something like 5 or 10 years the tax rate was quite low if I recall rightly.

You get exemptions if it’s your primary residence, obviously what will happen is a family member will be allocated to
Each residence, so I’m not sure how effective the changes will be in practice. The higher tax on non residents will definitely
Curb foreign speculation and investors though and that’s a good thing. I think a lot of locals hope that Chinese will flood the market with money and that’s a risky bet to take with DPP president and many people already pissed off at China and given the fact they have their own issues there. It could happen but it’s not a given.

If you read the ROC tax code they have some incredible rebates for mortgage interest and also losses on property. No wonder people put so much of their money into property, you kept almost the entire gains but you could write off your losses against tax! No surprise since many legislators are major property holders and speculators!

Just to reiterate, annual property taxes are going to go up significantly too according to what I was told, not just capital gain rates on the profit from a sale.

[quote=“Winston Smith”]Had an interesting talk about housing with a money man at the bank the other day. Property taxes are going to skyrocket in the near future according to him because they’re going to be determined on the true, sky high value of property rather than on some artificially low valuation as they have been up till now. Also capital gains taxes are going to take a big chunk out of any sales profits, even if you wait ten years for them to be at their lowest before selling. Bottom line according to him: don’t buy real estate now unless you plan to live in it long term.

Of course all this should be good for the average person but only if he or she waits for the full impact of these pending changes to kick in before buying.[/quote]

In addition to this I have to believe that they are going to crack down on rent tax evasion somehow. I don’t know how but I have to think they know what is going on and are trying to think of a way to get their money.

[quote=“Abacus”][quote=“Winston Smith”]Had an interesting talk about housing with a money man at the bank the other day. Property taxes are going to skyrocket in the near future according to him because they’re going to be determined on the true, sky high value of property rather than on some artificially low valuation as they have been up till now. Also capital gains taxes are going to take a big chunk out of any sales profits, even if you wait ten years for them to be at their lowest before selling. Bottom line according to him: don’t buy real estate now unless you plan to live in it long term.

Of course all this should be good for the average person but only if he or she waits for the full impact of these pending changes to kick in before buying.[/quote]

In addition to this I have to believe that they are going to crack down on rent tax evasion somehow. I don’t know how but I have to think they know what is going on and are trying to think of a way to get their money.[/quote]

Landlords will most likely just pass the 5% tax on to renters so the little guy gets it in the neck again.

[quote=“Winston Smith”][quote=“Abacus”][quote=“Winston Smith”]Had an interesting talk about housing with a money man at the bank the other day. Property taxes are going to skyrocket in the near future according to him because they’re going to be determined on the true, sky high value of property rather than on some artificially low valuation as they have been up till now. Also capital gains taxes are going to take a big chunk out of any sales profits, even if you wait ten years for them to be at their lowest before selling. Bottom line according to him: don’t buy real estate now unless you plan to live in it long term.

Of course all this should be good for the average person but only if he or she waits for the full impact of these pending changes to kick in before buying.[/quote]

In addition to this I have to believe that they are going to crack down on rent tax evasion somehow. I don’t know how but I have to think they know what is going on and are trying to think of a way to get their money.[/quote]

Landlords will most likely just pass the 5% tax on to renters so the little guy gets it in the neck again.[/quote]

They might try but the rental market (from the landlord side) is going to continue to get more competitive and they might not be able to.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]

You get exemptions if it’s your primary residence, obviously what will happen is a family member will be allocated to
Each residence, so I’m not sure how effective the changes will be in practice. [/quote]

But with the hukou system, that wllbe hard in practice. Especially, if you only have say 1 kid. That gives you 2 residences at the very most.

Yes, but couldn’t the grandparents and parents and each kid have one residence. I’m not sure if married parents can have an individual residence each, maybe they can if they register the property under their name?
All they need to do to establish primary residence is probably send a few bills perhaps…like my landlord?
That means probably 4 houses and up to 8 (if including grandparents) for average household. 4 would cover almost all families in practice. It’s quite easy to move people between Hukous I believe , just need some property to back it
I think. May cause complications with inheritance though!ninwoudlnt even bet you need to move the hukou for sure.
Anyway I’m always skeptical about the loopholes, usually they’ve been placed there after legislative review. This loophole
Seems to mean almost no household will pay capital gains tax for gains under 4 million NTD. That’s still extraordinarily generous given the taxes they place on our salaried income.

I have noticed quite a lot of rebuilding proyects have stalled in recent months.

In our hood, the company gave up on our older flats and aparently bought and had the delas sealed for the newer side. Lo and behold, the company cracked before even setting out the first brick. So we are stuck with the 30 to 40 plus year old crumbling flats, being sold at ridiculous prices. One million per ping asking price.

A friend of mine in Sanchong, who was kicked out of her family home by her brother when a company made an overture to buy their block -even though she took care of her sick parents all their lives, they left the house under the brother’s name because he’s a man, but that is anotehr story- told me recently that her bro had ofered her to rent the place at a very high rate, to compensate as the company who intended to but had goen banckrupt, too. So all the neighbors vacated and cleaned up the premises… just to be left hanging.

So, we still have these decrepit, dangerous structures everywhere. In summary, no Christmas in July, no easy money coming up. No renovation, either. But one wonders again as to the resources alloted. Example: no expansion of the roads or water and sewage systems. More and more people concentrated on less and less space.

I also noticed the new buildings in my area are being placed in, ehem, rezoned areas. Empty spaces that use dto harbor factories. Lo and behold, way easier to build there without dealing with the neighborhood associations. I would just be a bit concerned about the land situation in terms of strenght. It is well known in the hood which buildings have been beuilt on fillinsg and these new structuires on empty spaces are within what the neighbors call the flood line -where it used to regularly flood. Fascinating.

I was just commenting the same thing when walking around Jingmei last night. Row after row of decrepit third world’s buildings with each apartment worth a million USD. Meanwhile the river still seems to stink the same as it did 15 years ago and the bridges look like they were whacked together in a hurry. And Jingmei is the NICE area in Taipei city with the good schools and extra budget.

Taiwan and Taipei suffer from terrible over priced concrete crap and disastrous planning laws and yes many greedy sods. It indeed is a rare site when a whole block of gongyu get knocked down or even refaced or remodeled for that matter!

There is actually a lack of new quality accommodation in Taipei as they are building in the suburbs or the old factory zones like you mentioned.

Looks like crap and this is who just came back from China…Chinese cities look SO much better these days it’s embarrassing really. I’m talking about the roads, the paths in many cases, the commercial real estates and the new apartment blocks.
Invest some f$&kinf money in the place people!

[quote=“headhonchoII”]Looks like crap and this is who just came back from China…Chinese cities look SO much better these days it’s embarrassing really. I’m talking about the roads, the paths in many cases, the commercial real estates and the new apartment blocks.
Invest some f$&kinf money in the place people![/quote]

I’m sure you know this, but people with money often just invest on the interior and don’t really care how things look from the outside. A person I know spent 4 million on interior redecoration not long ago. And he’s not rich or anything. From the outside, you would never know. There isn’t even an elevator in his building.

I’m not disagreeing with your sentiment. I’m just saying that things aren’t really what they seem to a casual observer.

Certainly the odd house owner spends silly money on dodgy interiors :slight_smile:, although I’d say most live in rather simple conditions to be honest.

The exterior of apartment blocks and commercial offices is a disgrace. Even headquarters of major Taiwanese banks and insurance companies look extremely shabby on Nanjing road. Some are getting a make over but most are not.

There has been investment is some stuff like subway stations but Old residential neighborhoods really don’t seem to get any spending from private or public sources. Cables still strewn on poles down the streets. Entrance doors to gonggu with cheap locks and unpainted since decades ago. Cheap cheap cheap.
Schools aren’t getting enough investment either, most look awful especially in the crowded Taipei area, lack open space and they have not increased teacher to student ratio even though number of kids has been dropping a lot.
Most of the public universities also look like crap and their building are too old and run down.
Keelung looks like a wasteland that time forgot in large part.
Failing to invest in the kids education and welfare is a massive issue for me. It shows the mindset is about saving money and keeping the pot going for a couple of decades for all the Retired public workers until it runs dry. Young people don’t have a good future here because there is no investment in them.

[quote=“marasan”][quote=“headhonchoII”]Looks like crap and this is who just came back from China…Chinese cities look SO much better these days it’s embarrassing really. I’m talking about the roads, the paths in many cases, the commercial real estates and the new apartment blocks.
Invest some f$&kinf money in the place people![/quote]

I’m sure you know this, but people with money often just invest on the interior and don’t really care how things look from the outside. A person I know spent 4 million on interior redecoration not long ago. And he’s not rich or anything. From the outside, you would never know. There isn’t even an elevator in his building.

I’m not disagreeing with your sentiment. I’m just saying that things aren’t really what they seem to a casual observer.[/quote]

TBH, 4 million in an ugly gongwu is way overpriced. Even if it was 70 ping. I often watch the interior design shows and I scratch my head. Does it look original? is it a piece of art? Are they using unique materials, heck, safe materials? It seems the same flat dark artificial style. neo rococo furniture. Icky. If at least they had a jacuzzi or something.

My dad was telling me they took down my sister’s room in the ol house and extended the bathroom with a jacuzzi, opening up to the garden which has a lovely Spanish style veranda. Now you’re talking.

Indeed, in Taiwan there is this fear of the fuiture, fear of safety -being kidnapped, fear what fuels people to save, save and keep saving. Indeed, if you get 18% from your money sitting there, why bother? If you do not know if you will keep your job, why spend? Then comes a scammer and takes it all away…

One example: The masses invest in huge insurance premiums, but the investment companies themselves may put their money abroad, may take the money to the global markets, but none gets back to Taiwan. They used to have developments financed by them. Not anymore.

The real estate industry is at dodgy as those phone scammers.

China in middle of crack up property boom! Even the richest property developer in China has openly stated this.

Interestingly this hasn’t driven up prices in Taiwan this time probably because of politics.

Taiwan’s prices keep going down. Which is a good thing…but still ridiculously expensive.

Crack, up, crack up boom.
Boom crack a lackah.

Home prices in the second-tier city of Hefei recorded the largest on-year gain at 46.8 percent, compared with on-year gains of 40.3 percent in August. Top August performer Xiamen posted an on-year rise of 46.5 percent against an increase of 43.8 percent in August.
Prices in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing rose 34.1 percent, 32.7 percent and 27.8 percent on an annual basis respectively, according to Reuters.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/21/china-september-property-prices-extend-gains-raise-fears-of-a-bubble.html

They did it with shares only a year or so ago!!’

As they say in Taiwan, huo gai! Or other words that start with a g/k sound:

Taipei market at ‘decadeslong low’: real estate group

By Kuan-lin Liu, The China Post
December 16, 2016, 12:10 am TWN

TAIPEI, Taiwan – This year has been the worst for Taipei’s real estate industry in a decade, Taipei Association of Real Estate Brokers said at its annual meeting with the press on Thursday.

According to data Taipei City’s Department of Land Administration released, 21,078 real estate sales took place in the first 11 months of this year. This figure marks a 29.5 percent decline from the same period last year.

Compared to the sales number from a decade ago (68,976 sales), the decline is at 69.4 percent, which reflects a shrinking real estate market in Taipei.

The association’s public relations committee chairman Chang Hsin-ming (張欣民) opened the press conference with an acknowledgement that “it has been a bad year for real estate in Taipei this year.”

‘Taipei hit the hardest’

While the overall Taiwanese real estate market took a hit this year, association President Kuo Tzu-li (郭子立) said Taipei was hit the hardest by “government policies targeting the greater Taipei region.”

Policy changes that were implemented included taxes on mansions, property owners and land. The market did not respond well to spikes in these taxes, Kuo said.

Given that Taipei’s properties were notorious for being expensive, many of the new tax policies have had the most aggressive effect on properties in Taipei, said Lee, director of the association.

Kuo said that the inauguration of President Tsai Ing-wen and uncertainty surrounding her tax reforms made it difficult for people to invest in real estate.

In the past, Kuo told the press, Taipei real estate agents could sell up to 4,000 units a month. This year, the monthly average was about 1,600.

Same as with the tourists: thinking the wave would keep on rolling forever, too much stupidity and greed combined, way too much risk. I do not expect blood on the streets but the ones that overextended wil feel it hard.

This thread started nearly a decade ago and all we got in that time was a (much-needed) correction. All I know is I’m eternally grateful that we bought our apartment 7-8 years ago (it has since doubled in price- even with the correction), and I didn’t listen to all the “experts” that warned against the purchase.

The housing market next year could emerge from a downturn, a survey by Taiwan Realty Co (台灣房屋) showed yesterday, as nearly 50 percent of respondents voiced a willingness to buy.

“The market has hit rock bottom this year, but could start a mild recovery next year, as the economy is picking up at home and overseas backed by fiscal stimulus measures,” company manager Jack Chou (周鶴鳴) told a news conference.

Yeah well you were lucky. Sometimes the experts get it right. If you bought in last 2 or 3 years you would have lost out pretty badly in a short time.
I know lots of people who lost their shirt on property.
Taiwan has been hollowed out by property speculation, business investment has been complete shit for over 10 years as everybody threw their money in property and mortgages.
Even though I’m a renter I’ve hardly been suffering with the relatively cheap rents!

People aren’t buying houses cos they are too expensive and there’s NO lack of supply and no hurry to buy. Tonnes of housing all over New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Linkou, Sanxia but still a bit pricey for what ya get. I for one will wait and enjoy my million dollar apartment for cheap. I don’t think we’ve really seen a correction here because money is still so cheap and prices have been run up so high.

When you see missiles flying or embargoes of Taiwan…that’s shit your pants time.