A Drought -- you've got to be friggin' kidding me

Thank you. I may take the ferry back from Valdez to Vancouver Island. Same route as the cruise ships but a tenth the price. :sunglasses:

Thank you. I may take the ferry back from Valdez to Vancouver Island. Same route as the cruise ships but a tenth the price. :sunglasses:[/quote]
Now that you mention it… if i recall correctly, you change ships in Prince Rupert.
(Now there’s a part of the world that never had to worry much about water shortages)

[quote=“yuli”][quote=“Muzha Man”]Again, this is rain
And this is a drought[/quote]
And this is how our very own version of “Fox news” started:

I think you’ll find it was a more than reasonable statement, but you guys are scared of the facts. Taipei had 230 rainy days in over the last year March to April. The average number of rainy days is 165. Do the math. 230 - 165/165=65 therefore 65/165x100=40%. Taipei had 40% more rainy days than on average. To get 40% more than average you would have to be a substantial outlier on a bell curve. And here is the clincher the median number of rainy days and the average number of rainy days in Taiwan are almost identical.

So here we have a drought with a probable record number of rainy days. I’ll leave you to work out if it my statement were hyperbole or not.

Meanwhile the drought continues outside.

I think I know why too. In a La Nina event the high pressure system of the north pacific which is normally just over Taiwan is farther north. This allows wet weather from the colder sea temperatures in the southern Pacific to travel north and drop continual rain on Taiwan. Usually the North Pacific high pressure system is farther south and Taiwan gets more sunny days and fewer rainy days.

The facts? I see one item here that you present as fact:

What is a “rainy day”? A day with at least some rainfall at some time during 24 hours? A day with rainfall for 24 hours? Light rain? Heavy rain?
Since that is not clear, people in charge of water supplies usually don’t do math with “rainy days” but with “amount of precipitation” (usually measured in mm over a given period of time).
And the reason for that is that reservoirs are not filled by “a high number of rainy days” but by “a sufficient amount of rainfall” distributed over a reasonable amount of time.

So, let us do it the way it needs to be done:

  1. What are the precipitation figures for Taiwan for, say, the last half year?
  2. “Taipei” is not the same as “Taiwan” - what are the precipitation figures for other parts of Taiwan - at least for the central and southern part of the west side of Taiwan?
    In other words, give us figures for at least half a dozen different and representative locations on the island, not just one.
  3. Water shortages are related to low levels of water in reservoirs - what are the water levels in the reservoirs?

Sure - assuming we have the data we need… :slight_smile:

The facts? I see one item here that you present as fact:

What is a “rainy day”? A day with at least some rainfall at some time during 24 hours? A day with rainfall for 24 hours? Light rain? Heavy rain?
Since that is not clear, people in charge of water supplies usually don’t do math with “rainy days” but with “amount of precipitation” (usually measured in mm over a given period of time).
And the reason for that is that reservoirs are not filled by “a high number of rainy days” but by “a sufficient amount of rainfall” distributed over a reasonable amount of time.

So, let us do it the way it needs to be done:

  1. What are the precipitation figures for Taiwan for, say, the last half year?
  2. “Taipei” is not the same as “Taiwan” - what are the precipitation figures for other parts of Taiwan - at least for the central and southern part of the west side of Taiwan?
    In other words, give us figures for at least half a dozen different and representative locations on the island, not just one.
  3. Water shortages are related to low levels of water in reservoirs - what are the water levels in the reservoirs?

Sure - assuming we have the data we need… :slight_smile:[/quote]

That is just the 40% more than average days with rain. You can look that up at the CWB. You also avoid the fact that the Koppen-Gieger weather index used to define climate says that high rainfall is more than 1750 to 2000mm annually. How do you explain the 3654mm, 2156mm, 2846 mm and 2000mm in Alsihan, Kauhsiung, Pingtung and Taitung. What is it with all these places in the south that are suffering from drought having more than high-rainfall on a standard index? Please explain. Explain it.

How do you explain Pingtung in the heart of the drought having 105mm so far this year when to this time in the previous three years it had only had 66mm, 85mm, and 48mm. That’s 60% more rain than the average of the previous three years – in the heart of the drought. Or Taitung with 224mm and the previous three years to the same time with 136, 186, and 211 at an average of 178mm. This year had 26% more rain than the average of the previous three years. These are the facts that you run from, because you cannot explain them.
You have accepted nonsense from a bunch of incompetent water managers on faith without the slightest bit of critical thinking. Shame. Shame. Shame.

I couldn’t care less about that data - it is of no use to me, neither in this discussion nor in general. :slight_smile:

And you avoid the fact that Mars is smaller than Earth - but no sweat, neither the Koppen-Geiger Index nor the size of Mars have anything to do with my challenge to your assertion. :smiley:

What are you talking about: Annual average rainfall? Last year’s rainfall? Rainfall in the last 12 months? Rainfall in any other time period?

What is it? I am sorry i don’t understand your question, My question is: has there been enough rainfall in the south to fill the reservoirs?

I don’t explain anything, since i can’t find any of the data you are showing here - would you mind telling me where you found them?

I am not running from anything. I am challenging your assertion that Taiwan has had enough rainfall recently to fill the reservoirs and that the low water levels in the reservoirs are therefore entirely due water mismanagement.

And since i don’t know what the facts are , i make use of pages like this to inform myself:
focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_ … 1104280025
… and pages like this:
cwb.gov.tw/V6e/statistics/monthlyData/mD.php - from here i have extracted, for example, the following data for the most recent 6 months:

[quote]Rainfall in mm
Loc Ttun Kaoh Tnan Alis Tchn Dans Taip
2010:
Nov 47.7 13.0 54.0 87.8 20.7 89.5 127.3
Dec 12.6 11.5 14.5 64.9 27.4 100.1 63.4
sub 60.3 24.5 68.5 152.7 48.1 189.6 190.7
2011:
Jan 14.9 7.7 6.7 133.8 35.4 108.6 71.9
Feb 16.6 3.5 7.7 62.1 27.6 104.1 68.0
Mar 11.1 8.0 4.7 93.8 33.2 118.2 119.1
Apr 61.6 29.5 26.0 28.7 5.1 51.6 27.4
sub 104.2 48.7 45.1 318.4 101.3 382.5 286.4
6 month period:
tot 164.5 73.2 113.6 471.1 149.4 572.1 477.1[/quote]
(I hope i haven’t made any errors in transferring data and calculating totals - if i have, please tell me and i’ll fix them)
Now, even these numbers don’t tell me enough yet - so i will consider information like this:
chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/nati … t-rain.htm
(I’ve seen more information but did not make a record of the URLs, except for the pages listed here: A drought? No kidding

So i’ve done most of your homework. :wink: So what now?

But, actually, i realize this thread is not about facts (let alone resembling a scientific approach) but an exercise in “venting”,
so i don’t mind it at all if you don’t follow the road i’ve pointed out here.
:smiley:

Here is the reference. It’s called the Central Weather Bureau.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/index.htm

You only have to count the days and add up the numbers.

There is only one explanation for running out of water in a country that has so much rain – mismanagement. And it is not like this is a freak occurrence it is well known as the interdecadal oscillation. It is known to happen every 11 years approximately. Taiwan has had incidents of poor water capture in: 1899-1902, 1906-1910, 1913-1916, 1946, 1645-55, 1960-1965, 1978-1980, and 1993-1997 and 2002. So if incompetence doesn’t explain it what does.

Mean while the drought continues with light rain outside at the moment.

1645? please confirm!

What are you talking about: Annual average rainfall? Last year’s rainfall? Rainfall in the last 12 months? Rainfall in any other time period?[/quote]
I’m pretty sure Fox is talking about last year’s rainfall (2010).

I found monthly rainfall tables, with dropdown menus for month and year, on the Central Weather Bureau site, on this page: cwb.gov.tw/V6e/statistics/monthlyData/mD.php

I couldn’t find annual totals, so I added them up by month. I didn’t see Pingtung on there, so I guess Fox got his data from a different place from the page that I linked.

Anyway, here’s my twelve-month tally for 2010 for the other three locations:

Alishan: 3,654.6 mm
Kaohsiung: 2,160.7 mm
Taitung: 1,973.8 mm

Those three look pretty close to Fox’s.

Oh, one more thing: I didn’t round anything off. I just entered the numbers as they were and added them on the little calculator that comes with Windows XP.

Edit: Here’s what I got for Taipei for 2010, from the page linked above: 2,278.3 mm

Here are the monthly numbers for Taipei for 2010 (it’s possible I made a mistake; if you want, you can check them):

Jan. 105.3 mm
Feb. 232.6 mm
Mar. 66.5 mm
Apr. 112.5 mm
May 183.9 mm
Jun. 419.6 mm
Jul. 89.1 mm
Aug. 388.5 mm
Sep. 144.2 mm
Oct. 345.4 mm
Nov. 127.3 mm
Dec. 63.4 mm

What are you talking about: Annual average rainfall? Last year’s rainfall? Rainfall in the last 12 months? Rainfall in any other time period?[/quote]
I’m pretty sure Fox is talking about last year’s rainfall (2010).

I found monthly rainfall tables, with dropdown menus for month and year, on the Central Weather Bureau site, on this page: cwb.gov.tw/V6e/statistics/monthlyData/mD.php

I couldn’t find annual totals, so I added them up by month. I didn’t see Pingdong on there, so I guess Fox got his data from a different place from the page that I linked.

Anyway, here’s my twelve-month tally for 2010 for the other three locations:

Alishan: 3,654.6 mm
Kaohsiung: 2,160.7 mm
Taidong: 1,973.8 mm

Those three look pretty close to Fox’s.

Oh, one more thing: I didn’t round anything off. I just entered the numbers as they were and added them on the little calculator that comes with Windows XP.[/quote]

Thanks CJ. The Pingtung one is on there too. Please stop thinking.

There is no point posting any data without defining the word ‘drought’. Fox is talking about a meteorological drought. Others, like mucha man and yuli, are talking about a hydrological drought.

[quote=“Charlie Jack”]Anyway, here’s my twelve-month tally for 2010 for the other three locations:

Alishan: 3,654.6 mm
Kaohsiung: 2,160.7 mm
Taitung: 1,973.8 mm

Those three look pretty close to Fox’s.[/quote]
Perfect - now look at my half-year figures, and you can see that the rainfall in those locations in the last half year is MUCH LESS THAN HALF of those figures - not surprising as such, since most rain in southern Taiwan falls between May and October. But the figures are low, in my opinion.

And now let’s ask Fox to consider this, please:
chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/nati … Taiwan.htm
:slight_smile:

I like “sociological drought” much better in this context, because i think the problem is one of people, not one of the weather/climate. :wink: :smiley:

Edit:

Thanks, antarcticbeech, for the added info to consider:
pdc.org/iweb/drought.jsp?subg=1

Add to that Charlie Jack’s “socieo-ecomic drought”:
library.thinkquest.org/16132/htm … types.html

And the page Mucha Man had mentioned before;
drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm

I don’t see it on the page I linked to. Here’s the page I used: cwb.gov.tw/V6e/statistics/monthlyData/mD.php

Did you get your data from another page? Or does the Pingdong station go by another name?

Edit: Oh, I get it. You went to the daily page, just as you said. I didn’t even bother with that. I assumed it would be too much work, and that’s a shame, since the monthly totals are down at the bottom of the page. Here’s that page: cwb.gov.tw/V6e/statistics/da … ion/dP.php

I got 2,848.5 for Pingdong for 2010.

I just copied and pasted the numbers onto Notepad, adding plus signs to all except the last, and plugging the numbers into Google. Wish I’d checked that page out earlier.

I did all that unnecessary work. That just makes me real sad:

How come you are you so sure?

I suspect you haven’t read the news lately or any of the materials i’ve provided links to. Let me sum up the key point for you: the CWB data support clearly what many newspaper articles have explained in detail in the last few weeks: [color=#0000FF]the rainfall in the last few months[/color] - especially in the south of Taiwan - has not been enough to fill the reservoirs adequately.

About your annual figures: you could have several typhoons in the summer and get over 8000mm of rain for the whole year that way in some place (that has happened somewhere once, i think) - but if it does not rain enough between November and April in the watersheds that supply the reservoirs, the reservoirs will be low when you get into May.

In other words: to come with a convincing argument you need a more refined approach than looking at annual totals and the number of rainy days in Taipei. That’s all there is to it. :slight_smile:

Seems like you stopped thinking a bit too early, no?

I think there’s a crypto-debate going on here, a subtext. It’s starting to look like it’s mostly about the subtext.

:thumbsup: I think there have been and are many, many crypto-debates going on within the virtual universe of Forumosa. :wink:

And the drought issue has been figured out, too… :sunglasses:

[quote=“yuli”][quote=“Charlie Jack”]Anyway, here’s my twelve-month tally for 2010 for the other three locations:

Alishan: 3,654.6 mm
Kaohsiung: 2,160.7 mm
Taidong: 1,973.8 mm

Those three look pretty close to Fox’s.[/quote]
Perfect - now look at my half-year figures, and you can see that the rainfall in those locations in the last half year is MUCH LESS THAN HALF of those figures - not surprising as such, since most rain in southern Taiwan falls between May and October. But the figures are low, in my opinion.

And now let’s ask Fox to consider this, please:
chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/nati … Taiwan.htm
:slight_smile:[/quote]

They are low in your opinion but as we all know in fact they are examples of high-rainfall.

How come you are you so sure?

I suspect you haven’t read the news lately or any of the materials I’ve provided links to. Let me sum up the key point for you: the CWB data support clearly what many newspaper articles have explained in detail in the last few weeks: [color=#0000FF]the rainfall in the last few months[/color] - especially in the south of Taiwan - has not been enough to fill the reservoirs adequately.

About your annual figures: you could have several typhoons in the summer and get over 8000mm of rain for the whole year that way in some place (that has happened somewhere once, I think) - but if it does not rain enough between November and April in the watersheds that supply the reservoirs, the reservoirs will be low when you get into May.

In other words: to come with a convincing argument you need a more refined approach than looking at annual totals and the number of rainy days in Taipei. That’s all there is to it. :slight_smile:

Seems like you stopped thinking a bit too early, no?[/quote]

I’m sure because all the examples are examples of high-rainfall. Taiwan gets a lot of rain. It has had a lot of rain in the past year. The role of any water authority is to capture and manage that resource. The authorities in Taiwan know that they have regular water shortages about every 11 years, but they don’t do much to address the situation. They wait and hope that things will turn out OK in the end, because they know Taiwan gets a lot of rain, too. In general Taiwan get more rain from monsoons than typhoons, even in the typhoon season July to September the percentages are 47.5% for typhoons and 52.5% for monsoons over the past 50 years. If you look at June to August which includes the plum rains the percentages are more stark with 36.8% for typhoons and 63.2% for monsoons (Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society). I assume the government fear low monsoonal rain because getting typhoon rain is a crap shoot.

So I don’t think I stopped thinking too early at all. I think if you think Taiwan does not get enough rain on an annual basis to cover its water needs you are lost to the wolves of politics and bureaucracy.

Meanwhile the drought continues outside with moderate rain.

So “we all know” except stupid me - it can’t be helped then. I stupidly get my figures like this - for example for Kaohsiung:

  1. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaohsiung
    (average rainfall based on CWB data, period not shown)
    Nov 13.4
    Dec 11.5
    Jan 20.0
    Feb 23.6
    Mar 39.2
    Apr 72.8
  2. tgs.org.tw/jge/files/article … 481456.pdf (on the 3rd page of that file)
    (1971-2006 average)
    Nov 14.6
    Dec 14.5
    Jan 19.9
    Feb 26.0
    Mar 34.5
    Apr 82.3
    (2001-2006 average)
    Nov 14.0
    Dec 30.5
    Jan 20.1
    Feb 11.9
    Mar 30.0
    Apr 69.5
  3. uswaternews.com/archives/arc … ibeg5.html
    (This report is from May 2002)

Here the information is not in table form, so we need to do some “math”: they give the 4-month average rain from Jan-Apr for 1972-2001 as 1.7in, which is abt. 43.2mm.
And since that is 27% the referenced average value, 100% calculates to abt. 159.9mm - this value is very close to the values of the other sources shown above.

And now the latest figures:
4) CWB data for the last 6 months (2010/2011)
Nov 13.0
Dec 11.5
Jan 7.7
Feb 3.5
Mar 8.0
Apr 29.5

Unfortunately i can’t massage those figures for 2010/2011 to show anything but a much lower value for the last half year’s rainfall than the averages shown in the reference sources,
whereby the rainfall in November and December was not unusual, but the values from January for April are rather low at a total of 48.7mm - in fact, if we calculate a percentage based on source 3 shown above, we get a value of 30.5% - none of this is my opinion, simply reported data.

Of course, all you need to do now for your argument to hold is prove that the reported data is wrong and provide the correct data. Piece of cake, i’d say…

Reservoirs cannot catch this annual rainfall (that is no different this year from previous years) - it is the last half year’s low rainfall that underlies the low levels of water in the reservoirs (as has been said before).

:2cents: