A long-term perspective on the Taiwanese economy

that the KMT wont win another election unless they believe in Taiwan.

Yeah, China influence-peddling operations have promoted this narrative. Apparently they caught some people on this board as well.

You guys know nothing, just like me :upside_down_face:

Agreed but I have 3 things to add:

1- Its 2% annual wage growth in NTD, in USD it would be closer to 4%.

2- Taiwan would be very competitive with top western countries if the growth continues another 10 or so years.

3- In the end, the culture (especially work culture) here needs a massive change if it wants to be competitive.

A percentage increase would be same across currencies. Am I missing something?

Yeah Iā€™m not sure what point heā€™s trying to make. That the USD has recently depreciated pretty substantially vs. the TWD?

Unfortunately, houses in Taiwan arenā€™t sold in USD.

Tell me this isnā€™t a thing.

Waishengren no?

washenlang

It would be more competitive, not very competitive. And this is only at 30,000 ft. The devil is always in the details.

In the technology industry, which is where the action is, Taiwanā€™s wages are ages behind. As weā€™ve discussed before, talented engineers in the US can easily earn 2x what their counterparts in Taiwan make (and multiples more than that in Silicon Valley). At 2% annual wage growth, it would take decades just to double salaries here.

Iā€™m curious as to whether you see that happening and if you do, what the impetus would be. From what I see among local friends, very little is changing.

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People are paid in NTD here and their wages have grown roughly 2 percent in NTD but NTD have been constantly but slowly appreciating against other currencies (including USD).

A 2% ntd change is also a 2% usd change. Prove me wrong.

If wages grow 2%, and the NT grows 2% vis-a-vis the dollar, then thatā€™s 4% growth in Taiwanā€™s wages in USD terms.

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Thatā€™s different. Heā€™s only talking about a change at a moment in time. You cannot compare a 2% change today in NT to the change in usd later.

Its [ xnew(t) - x(t) ] / x(t).

Wai = outside

Sheng = province

Ren = person

Waishengren

People are paid in NTD here and their expenses are denominated in NTD. A weaker USD might have the effect of reducing the cost of some imports but this is next to meaningless for the average Taiwanese in terms of their overall cost of living because the average Taiwanese is not living off of import goods to the extent that a 2% NTD increase in their wages would effectively feel like a 4% NTD increase in their wages.

The 2% real wage growth is particularly painful when you look at how much the cost of real estate has increased. Again, people arenā€™t selling real estate in USD.

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Yeah, youā€™re correct. Washenlang is Holo.

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I guess so. But wages and the currency value can increase simultaneously.

The surge in the NT value is actually closer to 10%, and the NTD is still undervalued.

So thatā€™d be a 12% wage increase in USD.

Awesome. If only Taiwanese were paid in NTD and bought everything in USD!

You do realize that the rising TWD is a multi-edged sword, right?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/strong-dollar-excess-cash-put-taiwan-in-a-bind-decision-guide

If there is a surge, then youā€™ve to use the new value of the NT in the denominator as well. You canā€™t have old value in one place and new in the other. That comparison makes no sense.

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No way!!! I thought Taiwan had been suppressing its currency value the past 60 years just for fun!