A shortage of kids: A shortage of students/jobs/bushibans

Work Teaching English in Taiwan
1

Any thoughts onthe staggering decline in student numbers coming into schools this September… and afterwards.

taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/ … 2003100807

The ministry estimated last month that the number of Grade 1 students enrolling for the new school year that begins in September will decline to about 284,000, the lowest figure in half a century.

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Tang Chin-chuan (湯金全) said the number of newborn babies in the country last year was only about 220,000, down almost 100,000 from the figure of 1997.

Do you think it will affect you?

As a teacher?
As a businessperson?
As a …

Kenneth

2

I think in all honesty that it will be a boon for foreign teachers. More money for each kid, as the families well being depends on fewer children the rationale of spending more on the kid to increase his/her chances of success has merit.

It will definitely affect the view of foreigners as more of those children will be from Taiwanese/foreign marraiges. I don’t know how and wouldn’t presume too much at this time.

My kindergartens are going through a boom. The Yoyoban(1.5-2.99 year olds)at my morning kindy is packed with 13 kids and the school has promised the parents that they wouldn’t go above 12 kids. The parents are definitely interested and the kids are coming from 1 at most 2 kid families, versus the older generestions that would have 3-10 kids a family.

CYA
Okami

3

I agree with Okra-do-re-mi. Ken is doing the math that less kids per family = less kids enrolled in buxiban/kindergarten. But in reality the math is more like this:

I have 12,000 NT a month to spend on 3 kids. Thus, I divide it equally, allotting each kid 4,000 NT each. Maybe only one of them can afford to attend cram school at a time.

I have two kids. That’s 6,000 NT each I can throw at the little emperors. I can send one to kindergarten, the other to buxiban.

I only have one kid. 12,000 NT for this little emperor! It’s my only baby, so it gets the BEST! Hao bang a! Top of the line kindergarten day care, first class cram school in the evenings, money is no object for my precious darling!

4

Besides, have you ever seen your average Taiwanese elementary or highschool? 50 kids crammed into one class is the norm. Less kids going into school = smaller class sizes, which = a better educational environment. I don’t see how teachers in schools here can be effective when they’re literally teaching over 1,000 students a week.

[quote]Wu said the conference participants had reached a preliminary consensus on reducing class sizes, currently between 30 and 40 students per class, starting in August.

“The ministry will take the opportunity to reduce class sizes, but it will not move in the direction of cutting the number of classes or teachers,” he said.

[/quote]

See? Now they’re talking sense. There will be no cutting of classes and firing teachers just because they can’t cram 60 students into English Conversation class (meets once a week for 45 minutes, which equals about 45 seconds per student to practice conversation with foreign teacher). They will simply cut class sizes down to a reasonable level, thus providing parents with more value for their hard-earned NT dollars, and Taiwanese students’ educational performance will likewise soar. And certainly the overstressed teachers can breathe a sigh of relief. A win-win situation for all involved.

5

I foresee a bloodletting among those cram schools that are not on top of the game. Schools that just throw out some ELS books and tell the teacher “just go in there and teach” are going to be hurting.

I don’t know about the rest of the island but that has already started in Kaohsiung. It is also the first time in my 16 years here that I have seen no full time job offers in Kaohsiung. Some teachers who have just arrived in Kaohsiung are getting desperate.

6

[quote=“mod lang”]I agree with Okra-do-re-mi. Ken is doing the math that less kids per family = less kids enrolled in buxiban/kindergarten. But in reality the math is more like this:

I have 12,000 NT a month to spend on 3 kids. Thus, I divide it equally, allotting each kid 4,000 NT each. Maybe only one of them can afford to attend cram school at a time.

I have two kids. That’s 6,000 NT each I can throw at the little emperors. I can send one to kindergarten, the other to buxiban.

I only have one kid. 12,000 NT for this little emperor! It’s my only baby, so it gets the BEST! Hao bang a! Top of the line kindergarten day care, first class cram school in the evenings, money is no object for my precious darling![/quote]

Sorry mod lang, though some of your points are valid they are not entirely spot on. I think it is all a matter of perspective.

First of all, I don’t believe the locals budget money the way you outline it. Usually if one sibling goes to a cram school, then the others go also…irrespective of the money. If it gets too expensive, then they either stop going, look for cheaper alternatives, or wait until the kids are older.

Secondly, I don’t see many kindy students going to both a top notch kindy in the morning and a cram school at night. There are a few like that but not many. And who is to say that the cram schools at night that they go to will be an ESL school? Having more per kid doesn’t mean that ALL the money will be spent on ESL instruction. The kid may still only go to an ESL class twice a week and the extra money a family might have to spend because they have fewer children might be spent an art, piano, martial arts, etc. And because of the education guidelines in place in public schools today, many parents are having to spend money on another type of class (shhh…it’s a secret! :sunglasses: )

I would much rather have more kids in the market than fewer with more money at their disposal. I do see cram schools being in a tougher position than kindys.

The bottom line is very simple…the schools that will succeed in this market environment are the ones who bring their “A” games.