Alternate History: WWII Empire of Japan Victory

stoa1984 · February 22, 2023, 6:02am

You obviously don’t realize the magnitude of a Hunnic/Mongolian invasion?

This is nothing comparable to the U.S. occupation of Japan.

The fact is that those resulted in such devastations that the victims never recovered!

Indeed, prior to 4th century, Rome was the undisputable ruler of Europe. The following 2 millenia would only be a second place at best.

As for those destroyed by the Mongols, it equates to near extinction.

Indeed, prior to the 13th century, Asia was leading in all fields second to none.

The tremendous loss of talents, devastation of all infrastructure would send both the Chinese civilization, Indian civilization and Persian civilization in the oblivion, until the 21th century!

What you see today is nothing more than mere shadows of their former selves.

That is why thanks to the Mongol-induced extinction event, Asia is totally dominated by others, i.e. the Europeans that were spared from a Mongol invasion.

Again only day dreaming.

While my theses are backed by rigorous computer numerical simulations.

☒ China’s GDP was higher, but GDP per capita was abysmal compared to Japan.
GDP is all what matters, rich Luxembourg with superior GDP per capita collapsed within less than 24 hours to the poorer Germans in May 1940!

☒ It didn’t have the knowhow, skilled labor, or any industrial ability to be a threat to the Soviet.
China bogged down more than 1 million Japanese, while simulation shows clearly that China could reach as far as Stalingrad in the West before making junction with the German armies.
Only producing infantries with minimum of artillery support, in overwhelming number, with human wave tactics. Japan on the other hand lacks the manpower and would never be able to push by itself beyond the Baikal Lake.

☒ The two only severed relations because Hitler’s alliance with Japan, and Japan’s intention to invade China.
Again inaccurate. Germany actually fought Japan |2| while directing |2| the Chinese forces! Please get your fact right. Indeed, Hiltler’s original plan was to invade the Soviet Union from two opposite fronts. That is why Germany trained and armed the Chinese KMT. Japan only ruined this strategy causing the fall of both Japan and Germany.

Here more abstract from my OSINT research paper:

3.2. GDP Triggers

A well established predictor of military victory in great power warfare is GDP (Gross Domestic Product). When someone suggests that the Axis could not hope to defeat the Allies, the underlying assumption is that the relative material potential of the sides made an Axis victory impossible. Scholars readily accept and promulgate a caution against economic determinism, yet some still tend to accept it in practice.

|1||2|

In the simulations, GDP is related to the Industrial Capacity (I.C.).
It is the core factor that dictates when to strike and with which faction to wage war. But is is only a crude rule of thumb indicator of national strengths.
For more accuracy, instead of only comparing the Industrial Capacity, we also compared the number of military division deployed, divisions in training, the level of manpower available, the recruitment policies, the access to resources be it controlled or imported (metals, oil, rubber) and the technological level.

In short, the sum of the GDP of the Nipponese-lead alliance called Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (GEACS) and the GDP of the powers fighting against the enemy of the GEACS, should always exceed that of the enemy alliance.

This is especially tricky when fighting against multiple factions each with its own separate diplomatic stance.
Historically, this was the part that failed for both the Allies, Axis and GEACS, while the Comintern outbeated all the other alliances, emerging as the undisputed victor.

And this will also dictate whether or not, and when to backstab former friends, as a total war, before they become too powerful.

▲ 5. 1938 GDP

Gross Domestic Product 1938

GDP in billions of 1990 USA Dollars; % of World Economy
USA : 800.3; 19.9%
USSR : 359.0; 8.9%
Germany : 351.4; 8.7%
China : 320.5; 8.0%
UK : 284.2; 7.1%
UK Colonies : 284.5; 7.1%
France : 185.6; 4.6%
Japan : 169.4; 4.2%
Italy : 140.8; 3.5%
UK Dominion : 114.6; 2.9%
Dutch Colonies : 77.4; 1.9%
Japanese Colonies : 62.9; 1.6%
French Colonies : 48.5; 1.2%
USA Colonies : 26.5; 0.7%
Thailand : 12.5; 0.3%

While the table contains more precise information, it is less intuitive to use than the map, that gives a good visual idea at a single glance of the comparative military strength of each factions.

Some trivia:

•Obvious is that the Comintern can not be defeated by the Axis alone, as both are roughly of the same strength. But a combined Axis, GEACS and Chinese attack can break the Comintern’s resistance, with respectively a 26% of world GDP and 8.9% of world GDP, or a 2.9 to 1 GDP ratio.
•Obvious is that the Empire of Japan can’t even match the Republic of China’s strength, with 5.8% of world GDP and 8.0% of world GDP, meaning a small GDP ratio of only 0.725!
•The U.S.A.'s 21.6% of world GDP is of same strength as the combined expanded-Axis and GEACS with 22.6% of the world GDP. But the annexation of the Comintern would add some 8.9% of world GDP. Still not enough if the U.K. (7.1% of world GDP) survives. Meaning that the entire Old World’s GDP is necessary before any assault on the New World can be envisaged.