While I was reading about the February 26 Incident to see past assassinations of former Japanese Prime Ministers, I couldn’t help but wonder had the Imperial Way Faction won out, wouldn’t that have changed the outcome of WW2?
The IJA was split into the ultra conservative Imperial Way Faction and the German influenced “moderate” Control Faction. Imperial Way Faction argued for invasion into Russian Siberia to gain resources, while the Control Faction wanted to invade China with the Total War mentality.
After the failed February 26 coup, the Imperial Way faction leadership were wiped out, paving the way for the invasion of China and for the IJA to sign a non-aggression pact with the Soviets in 1941.
I think had the Imperial Way Faction won out, the AXIS would have won WW2.
Japan already controlled Manchuria in 1932 prior to the coup. Japan could have launched a land invasion into Siberia, as well as Mongolia from Manchuria. In reality Japan did fight the Soviets on the borders of Mongolia from 1932 and the fighting lasted on and off until 1939. The fact that the IJA didn’t have a significant advantage over Soviet forces in the conflict, and suffered major setback in the battles of Khalkhin Gol, played a role in the eventual demise of the Imperial Way Faction. However, had the coup been successful, and the IJA escalated their conflict with Russia, things could have been very different.
First of all, despite losing the battles of Khalkhin Gol, the IJA suffered less casualties and lost less tanks through out the entire conflict. The Japanese could have deployed their navy and attack coastal Siberia and Russian islands in North Pacific. They could have repeated their naval success in 1904’s First Russo-Japanese war, when the IJA suffered heavy loses, but the blow dealt to the Russian navy by the IJN was so significant that eventually turned the tide of the war.
By 1936, the IJN already had several aircraft carriers, such as the Kaga and Akagi. The next year, Soryu and Hiryu were also commissioned. The two state of the art Shōkaku class carrier was commissioned in 1941. The Russian navy at the time wouldn’t have posed a threat at all to the Japanese aircraft carriers, as they were still stuck in the battleship mentality. The Japanese would have achieved total naval blockade of the Russian Far-east.
In this scenario, it’s unlikely that the US and the other European nations would have placed sanctions on Japan. In real history, it was the sanctions against Japan’s invasion of China that prompted Japan to attack the Pearl Harbor. Without having to worry for fuel, Japan could leave China and the US alone for now, and Roosevelt would have found it difficult to justify entering the European theater without the Pearl Harbor attack.
So even if the land war became an stalemate prior to 1941, the IJA would have forced Stalin to keep a large amount of Russian troops in Siberia when Hitler began his Operation Barbarossa. By then, the IJA could probably begin to find some success in Siberia, disrupting Russian supply line as well as fuel and weaponry production.
Germany and Japan could have occupied most of the Soviet Union by 1942, and secured fuel production in Siberia for the Axis powers. By then there is no stopping Japan from invading China, and even if the US gets involved, the IJN could operate without worrying for fuel, which played a major factor in IJN operations in the real history.