Are countries finally going to start pushing back against China?

[hansioux]

@Malasang88

This was Nixon’s initial strategy with opening up China relations to split them off further from the Soviet union.

Hindsight is 20/20, but here are some choices that could have saved us from having to make this decision:

1. 1948 - The US should have stopped China from falling into the hands of the CCP.
2. 1960 - The US should have trained and backed KMT forces to at least gain a foothold in China.
3. 1989 ~ 1992 - The US and the West as a whole should have demanded the CCP to reform or stop receiving aid and investments.
4. 2010 - When China began forcing out US companies such as Google, the US should have toughened up and reciprocated by blocking Chinese goods and businesses.

Now we are at a new junction. Trump started a trade war with China back in 2018, which is something he did right regardless of his reasons. It is a policy that sees bipartisan support as of 2024. I think the way forward is to encourage China to reform or be kept out of the global market, and seek to delay the conflict through deterrence. If those fail, they will need to be stopped. Xi’s goal in politics since the 80s was to subject the world to Chinese style communism. If there’s a chance to make that happen, that dude is going to try it.

[Malasang88]

As far as go forward, the current sanctions on high tech like chips production have been more effective than the trade war. The next step is a coordinated global trade war and anti-dumping laws to counter China’s over capacity from everything from cheap clothes to electric cars.

[hansioux]

@hansioux

The Kremlin responded to President Lai by saying China already agreed to relinquish claims over those lands in the 2001 and 2004 agreements, dismantling China’s facade of abolishing all unequal treaties and not giving up an inch of claimed historical territory.

It’s worth noting that as of yet, Beijing hasn’t responded to Lai’s or the Kremlin’s comment.

[Kalle]

@hansioux

The West should have a plan to come to Russia’s immediate rescue, with or without Putin at the helm, if such an invasion does take place.

I can see some merit in this if thinking from a long term future perspective on possible different scenarios…… but more negative than positive.

For the west to put in huge money for weapons for Ukraine is already hard for some people to accept, imagine how much people will complain if their tax payments would go to support Russia… I think the politicians supporting this would be changed out fast….

And this is just if the west would support Russia with weapons, intel etc. support… not even close to putting west military at the front….

Just my views …

[Mr_PBH]

Taiwan Busts Chinese Shell Company Operations Stealing Tech Secrets - TaiwanPlus News | Watch (msn.com)

[MikeN1]

@hansioux

• 1948 - The US should have stopped China from falling into the hands of the CCP.
• 1960 - The US should have trained and backed KMT forces to at least gain a foothold in China.
• 1989 ~ 1992 - The US and the West as a whole should have demanded the CCP to reform or stop receiving aid and investments.
• 2010 - When China began forcing out US companies such as Google, the US should have toughened up and reciprocated by blocking Chinese goods and businesses.

!1948= Exactly how would the US stopped China from falling into the hands of the CCP?
Either by sending millions of US soldiers to die, or ramping up production of atomic bombs and implementing mass nuking of China, while ignoring the USSR?
1960- “Next Year on the Mainland”- Neither the US nor (probably) CKS was stupid enough to send troops into China- not even the old KMT smack dealers in Burma and Laos.1989

1989-1992- US and other Western countries’ businesses were too busy trying to pile into China to make profits.

2010- ditto.

[hansioux]

@MikeN1

!1948= Exactly how would the US stopped China from falling into the hands of the CCP?

The US stopped providing CKS forces with new military aid not long since the Marshall Mission. The CCP completely blinded the entire Dixie Mission towards the nature of their rule and soured US view towards CKS.

Meanwhile, the CCP received not only Japanese advisors and weapons in Manchuria, the Soviets also provided them with planes and tanks.

[Edit] I forgot to mention, all the while the US was actually giving money to the CCP.

So the Chinese Civil War wasn’t some scrappy communist guerilla forces defeating larger and better equipped KMT troops. When the 1948 Manchurian offensive began, communist forces had more men, more planes, more tanks, more artillery pieces, better guns, more ammo, and what’s even worse, they had implanted spies in KMT’s army command.

Had the US continued their aid to CKS to fight off the communists, like they did in Korea and Vietnam, the KMT either could have kept the CCP in Manchuria, or at least north of the Yangtze.

@MikeN1

1960- “Next Year on the Mainland”- Neither the US nor (probably) CKS was stupid enough to send troops into China- not even the old KMT smack dealers in Burma and Laos.

1960 was the height of the Great Leap Forward, when millions of Chinese were starving to death. It was when Peng De-huai challenged Mao in the Lushan meeting, and told the truth about what’s really going on with the movement. If there was a time when it was possible to retake parts of China, 1960 would be it.

Also, they did send troops in Burma into China. They send about 20K men into China. They problem was they did it in 1951. I can see they wanted to distract China from the Korean War, but the CCP was enjoying its honeymoon phase back then. Had them had an equally large incursion into China in the 60s, things would have probably been different.

[Mr_PBH]

Here’s some pushback where it hurts. \

Taiwan exports to US nearly doubles, surpassing China, thanks to AI (msn.com)

[MikeN1]

@hansioux

Had the US continued their aid to CKS to fight off the communists, like they did in Korea and Vietnam,

They tied in Korea and lost in Vietnam. Yes, they could have won in both places if they were so stupid as to ignore the USSR. Fortunately the US Chiefs of staff weren’t as dumb as others.

@hansioux

If there was a time when it was possible to retake parts of China, 1960 would be it.

Except there wasn’t such a time. Even the KMT weren’t that insane, though CKS might have been enough of a wackjob at the time.

@hansioux

Also, they did send troops in Burma into China. They send about 20K men into China.

Who degenerated into Golden Triangle smack dealers as soon as thy had the sense to realise they couldn’t inflict anything but minor pinpricks on China.
It’s like the CIA infiltrating Tibet to push back the CCP. I had a prof who was involved in that; he was quite proud of it but admitted it was actually useless- just like these Cold War spy fantasies.

[hansioux]

The newest country pushing back against China is… North Korea!

China has been demanding North Korea to repatriate workers, and that threatens the regime’s income. China also tightened the borders to prevent smuggling, especially on luxury goods, drugs, and tech that could be used in the military. Kim Jongun is furious, I guess because a lot of those would be smuggled goods were meant for him and his satellite and rocket programs. Kim has began to refer to China as North Korea’s nemesis and cut back Chinese TV programs, as well as refused to attend celebrations of the 97th anniversary of the establishment of the PLA.

[hansioux]

@MikeN1

They tied in Korea and lost in Vietnam.

For the US public, deploying troops for an extended period of time is as good as losing. Otherwise, no, the US didn’t lose in Vietnam, not even close. The US came much closer to actually losing in Korea.

However, for the scenario I am talking about, I’m not suggesting that the US should have deployed troops to China. I’m simply saying CKS would have fared better had the US not cut military aid to him, and supplied the CCP with monetary and military aids instead.

@MikeN1

Except there wasn’t such a time. Even the KMT weren’t that insane, though CKS might have been enough of a wackjob at the time.

What are you talking about? CKS kept on planning to send troops to China, but he was kept back by the US. Serious planning of retaking the mainland only stopped around 1972.

Here are a list of planned or executed operations in the 60s that we know about.

1960 - Project Kunlun (崑崙計畫), yet another plan to secure a base in Yunan. However, the preparation for this plan caused Burma to sign a defense treaty with China, and both sent forces to wipe out the remaining KMT troops at the border.

1961 - Project Wild Dragon (野龍計畫), originally Project Pegasus (天馬計畫), planned with the help of CIA, but disrupted by typhoon.

1961 - Project National Glory (國光計畫), initiated in 1961, but CKS was looking to implement the plans around 1963. By then the US was very against CKS taking any action to return to China. CKS sent CCK to the US to require assistance to airdrop 5,000 troops into Yunnan to cut off Chinese aid to North Vietnam, and the US sternly warned the Chiangs not to do anything. The American side went as far as raiding the office of the project, and sending advisors onto every ROC navy ships during drills to ensure no one would suddenly set a heading for China.

Despite that CKS still airdropped some troops to Fujian and Guangdong in the 1962’s Operation Ocean Might (海威行動). Of the 1,800 troops dropped, a third of them made it back to Taiwan eventually.

China successfully detonated their nuclear bomb in 1964, and then the Vietnam War officially began. CKS begged and pleaded to use the opportunity to retake parts of China, but he was again asked to restrain himself. CKS went ahead with his own small scale incursions, but the Chinese navy was significantly upgraded right around the time as well, and the KMT navy no longer enjoyed superiority.

1965 - Operation Tsunami One was a part of Project National Glory, aimed to deliver operatives to infiltrate the Dongshan islands. The two KMT ships sent for the operation, a PC-461 class submarine chaser and an Auk-class minesweeper both sunk at sea after hours of chasing and fighting. Then another naval battle in the same year, around the island of Wuqiu, lost the KMT an Admirable-class minesweeper. That’s when the KMT realized they no longer can operate near the Chinese coast and put a huge dent in CKS’ plans.

@MikeN1

It’s like the CIA infiltrating Tibet to push back the CCP. I had a prof who was involved in that; he was quite proud of it but admitted it was actually useless- just like these Cold War spy fantasies.

It’s more about timing. The optimal timing in hindsight was 1960 to 1963, before Mao got his atomic bomb, and built up his navy while millions starved to death.

[afterspivak]

That’s quite the story.

It’s fair to say that those ships have sailed or, as @hansioux wrote, have been sunk.

Guy

[CTaitung]

Not that it’s unbelievable, but where is N. Korea referring to China as a nemesis?

[MikeN1]

@hansioux

1960 - Project Kunlun (崑崙計畫), yet another plan to secure a base in Yunan. However, the preparation for this plan caused Burma to sign a defense treaty with China, and both sent forces to wipe out the remaining KMT troops at the border.

1961 - Project Wild Dragon (野龍計畫), originally Project Pegasus (天馬計畫), planned with the help of CIA, but disrupted by typhoon.

1961 - Project National Glory (國光計畫), initiated in 1961, but CKS was looking to implement the plans around 1963. By then the US was very against CKS taking any action to return to China. CKS sent CCK to the US to require assistance to airdrop 5,000 troops into Yunnan to cut off Chinese aid to North Vietnam, and the US sternly warned the Chiangs not to do anything. The American side went as far as raiding the office of the project, and sending advisors onto every ROC navy ships during drills to ensure no one would suddenly set a heading for China.

Despite that CKS still airdropped some troops to Fujian and Guangdong in the 1962’s Operation Ocean Might (海威行動). Of the 1,800 troops dropped, a third of them made it back to Taiwan eventually.

1- Strangely, Burma didn’t want clashes with China over KMT stragglers who had seized areas of northern Burma and were already heavily involved in opium trafficking.
2- Wild Dragon- cancelled by bad weather. Cancelled, not postponed- sounds like a real serious effort.
3- National Glory (these names are getting more grandiose as CKS’s mind deteriorated) Fantasy that 5,000 troops airlifted by US into China could seal off border from China to North Vietnam. The US at this point was trying to stop this nut from doing anything stupid.
CKS then dropped 1800 infiltrators into China, of whom 600 got back to Taiwan, having accomplished absolutely nothing.
Sounds like some serious threats to China here.

[hansioux]

CKS didn’t have enough ships to begin with, and lacked the ability to escort the transport ships he did have safely across the strait. That’s why without major US support, there never was any real chance of returning to China. The same can be said about China’s capability to invade Taiwan back then. Both sides would have needed critical defections to secure a beachhead, and neither ever got that opportunity.

[hansioux]

Russia published a new list of enemy states, and declared both China and Taiwan as enemies of Russia in one entry.

https://x.com/SprinterFamily/status/1837307510589456473

[hansioux]

@CTaitung

Not that it’s unbelievable, but where is N. Korea referring to China as a nemesis?

There are lots of Taiwanese news articles reporting this, but the one English article seems to be behind a pay wall.

[fumarole]

Hot mic mistake at the Quad meeting? Not likely.

Journalists were granted access to initial remarks from the leaders before a meeting on Saturday. However, after journalists were asked to leave, officials were briefly caught on hot mics discussing China during what was intended to be a private meeting.

“Our first topic of discussion is China,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken after reporters were escorted out.

Moments later, Biden said, “We believe Xi Jinping is looking to focus on domestic economic challenges and minimize the turbulence in China diplomatic relationships. And he’s also looking to buy himself some diplomatic space, in my view, to aggressively pursue China’s interest.”

“China continues to behave aggressively, testing us all across the region. It is true in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, South China, South Asia and the Taiwan Strait,” Biden continued. “It’s true across the scope of our relationship, including on economic and technology issues. At the same time, we believe intense competition requires intense diplomacy.”

The president also pointed to his phone call with China’s President Xi Jinping earlier this year, as well as national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s trip to China this summer, adding that “we see this engagement as important for conflict prevention and crisis management amidst our strategic competition.”

The hot mic comments about China came after Sullivan was asked earlier on Saturday about whether the four leaders will focus on China.

“The Quad isn’t really about any other country. It’s not directed at another country,” Sullivan told reporters. “It’s directed at problem-solving, standing up for a set of common principles and a common vision for the region.”

“So I don’t think you should expect to see focus on any particular country, including the PRC in the Quad leader statement,” he continued, using the abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China.

Indo-Pacific leaders expand maritime security cooperation at Biden’s farewell...

[hansioux]

@fumarole

Hot mic mistake at the Quad meeting? Not likely.

If it was on purpose, then it was more of an out streched hand to China than anything else.

[CTaitung]

Biden was able to string along that lengthy statement? Feels like done on purpose with help from someone/something.