Hindsight is 20/20, but here are some choices that could have saved us from having to make this decision:
1948 - The US should have stopped China from falling into the hands of the CCP.
1960 - The US should have trained and backed KMT forces to at least gain a foothold in China.
1989 ~ 1992 - The US and the West as a whole should have demanded the CCP to reform or stop receiving aid and investments.
2010 - When China began forcing out US companies such as Google, the US should have toughened up and reciprocated by blocking Chinese goods and businesses.
Now we are at a new junction. Trump started a trade war with China back in 2018, which is something he did right regardless of his reasons. It is a policy that sees bipartisan support as of 2024. I think the way forward is to encourage China to reform or be kept out of the global market, and seek to delay the conflict through deterrence. If those fail, they will need to be stopped. Xiâs goal in politics since the 80s was to subject the world to Chinese style communism. If thereâs a chance to make that happen, that dude is going to try it.
As far as go forward, the current sanctions on high tech like chips production have been more effective than the trade war. The next step is a coordinated global trade war and anti-dumping laws to counter Chinaâs over capacity from everything from cheap clothes to electric cars.
I can see some merit in this if thinking from a long term future perspective on possible different scenariosâŚâŚ but more negative than positive.
For the west to put in huge money for weapons for Ukraine is already hard for some people to accept, imagine how much people will complain if their tax payments would go to support Russia⌠I think the politicians supporting this would be changed out fastâŚ.
And this is just if the west would support Russia with weapons, intel etc. support⌠not even close to putting west military at the frontâŚ.
!1948= Exactly how would the US stopped China from falling into the hands of the CCP?
Either by sending millions of US soldiers to die, or ramping up production of atomic bombs and implementing mass nuking of China, while ignoring the USSR?
1960- âNext Year on the Mainlandâ- Neither the US nor (probably) CKS was stupid enough to send troops into China- not even the old KMT smack dealers in Burma and Laos.1989
1989-1992- US and other Western countriesâ businesses were too busy trying to pile into China to make profits.
The US stopped providing CKS forces with new military aid not long since the Marshall Mission. The CCP completely blinded the entire Dixie Mission towards the nature of their rule and soured US view towards CKS.
Meanwhile, the CCP received not only Japanese advisors and weapons in Manchuria, the Soviets also provided them with planes and tanks.
[Edit] I forgot to mention, all the while the US was actually giving money to the CCP.
So the Chinese Civil War wasnât some scrappy communist guerilla forces defeating larger and better equipped KMT troops. When the 1948 Manchurian offensive began, communist forces had more men, more planes, more tanks, more artillery pieces, better guns, more ammo, and whatâs even worse, they had implanted spies in KMTâs army command.
Had the US continued their aid to CKS to fight off the communists, like they did in Korea and Vietnam, the KMT either could have kept the CCP in Manchuria, or at least north of the Yangtze.
1960 was the height of the Great Leap Forward, when millions of Chinese were starving to death. It was when Peng De-huai challenged Mao in the Lushan meeting, and told the truth about whatâs really going on with the movement. If there was a time when it was possible to retake parts of China, 1960 would be it.
Also, they did send troops in Burma into China. They send about 20K men into China. They problem was they did it in 1951. I can see they wanted to distract China from the Korean War, but the CCP was enjoying its honeymoon phase back then. Had them had an equally large incursion into China in the 60s, things would have probably been different.
They tied in Korea and lost in Vietnam. Yes, they could have won in both places if they were so stupid as to ignore the USSR. Fortunately the US Chiefs of staff werenât as dumb as others.
Except there wasnât such a time. Even the KMT werenât that insane, though CKS might have been enough of a wackjob at the time.
Who degenerated into Golden Triangle smack dealers as soon as thy had the sense to realise they couldnât inflict anything but minor pinpricks on China.
Itâs like the CIA infiltrating Tibet to push back the CCP. I had a prof who was involved in that; he was quite proud of it but admitted it was actually useless- just like these Cold War spy fantasies.