Buying chinese yuan

My understanding is that on April 15th Obama has to make a decision as to whether or not China’s manipulation of the value of the yuan violates the Free Trade agreement and if it does whether or not to impose an import tarrif. I have heard that with the economic expansion that has occured in China since 2008 the yuan is devalued by as much as 25% which of course puts workers in the US and elsewhere at a disadvantage. China “rejects” this of course but it really isn’t up to them is it? If the US decides to impose a tarrif they can and all manner of chaos will result for both sides.

My “bet” is that China will allow the yuan to appreciate but not much. I dunno how much. In fact as per usual I don’t know anything but that as opposed to investing in the stock market this looks like a good bet. In the stock market the pros are always way ahead of you and the price has adjusted before you’ve had a chance to get in. Here you know the price is going to remain the same at least till the fifteenth and you pretty much know it is going to go up after that. VERY little chance it will go down.

That makes it a pretty safe investment, no?

BTW, if you have any money - which I don’t - you are already involved in currency speculation because whatever money you have is going to go up or down in relation to other currencies.

Anyway, I’m just posting this so I can say I did. We’ll see what happens. I won’t have time to comment on this one way or the other but it will be interesting to see what you guys think.

Yeah, if I had any money I’d buy some yuan.

We could pool our non-monies. Surely if enough of us got together it would be “some” monies. :wink:

I do not think that the chinese will allow the RMB to increase more than %1.5, because the recent poll shows that many labour intensive manufacturers’ profit margens are between 3-5% and any small increase will mean that hundreds and probably millions of workers will be out of work as those companies will go bust. another point, if you by RMB (cash), then you need a lot of money and an increase of more that is more than 2% in order to cover banks charges (such as commissions), the difference between the buying and selling price and finally an acceptable return on investment.

2%. Thank you. That was the number I was looking for.

The problem with your analysis though is that it isn’t looking at the US side. They have massive debt and massive unemployment. A tarriff could raise funds to pay back the debt, help curtail the flow of money OUT of the country and put people to work, which would also help raise revenue.

I don’t believe the 3-5% figure. That might be what the statistics or reports say but I don’t believe it, personally.

The point should be why should Americans care, they are getting stiffed by the Chinese with no apparent benefit in return.
As for yuan appreciation, looks like a sure thing one way or the other but you’d need a lot of cash to make it work, perhaps buy some stocks in China that you fancy.

I don’t HAVE any money. Or to put it another way. I don’t have ANY money. Then again I could say, I don’t have any MONEY. There is a certain charm in all of them and I appreciate the chance to get that off my chest any which way.

This is just a game I like to play to see if I could make money if I had money.

This is what will happen:

Obama will make a stink about how unfair to the american worker it is (it is) and how it is a blatant violation of free trade agreements (it is). China will piss and moan and pay off it’s connections in the US and they will agree not to call label it currency manipulation but… squeezing one off here… for the common man of america… here’s a dollop, lets say… three percent over the next six months. Ahhh…

3% minus 2% is 1%. There’s MY pretend profit. I like it because it seems so risk free.

2%. Thank you. That was the number I was looking for.

The problem with your analysis though is that it isn’t looking at the US side. They have massive debt and massive unemployment. A tarriff could raise funds to pay back the debt, help curtail the flow of money OUT of the country and put people to work, which would also help raise revenue.

I don’t believe the 3-5% figure. That might be what the statistics or reports say but I don’t believe it, personally.[/quote]

Dear Bob, the problem of the US is not china, or the RMB value, it is the US economy structure. if it is not china, then it will be india with their call centers and IT services, and if not india then it is the middle eastern countries with their oil and gas. Regarding the small tarriffes, it might raise some money as you said but the question is who will pay this money? it is the american consumer, and the chinese workers as some of them will be laid off and then re-employed after a while. Atarriff will not be an easy thing and I believe that neither Presedent Obama nor the Congress will take any step that they will regret it later on, because both sides no that they are in the same boat.

The problem is the structure, true. Tarrifs would change the structure. A fossil fuel tax would change the structure.

You can’t run a massive trade deficit with another country without enriching that country and impoverishing your own. At this point the US is borrowing from China in order to purchase from China. There is no way it is sustainable. It isn’t even sustainable for China because China depends on the strength of the US economy to guarantee it’s loans to the US. If the US fails China fails, and the US is failing.

This is going to be a really interesting debate. The US will back away from tarriffs but not without some kind of concession from China on the currency value. It might be more than 3%. Who knows?

Simple, just open a 6 month or a year CD account and deposit your RMB fund there. China will raise their interest rate this year to fight the inflation, so you earn the interest. and if the currency value jumps, you earn extra. But the census is that the currency value will only go up slightly.

2%. Thank you. That was the number I was looking for.

The problem with your analysis though is that it isn’t looking at the US side. They have massive debt and massive unemployment. A tarriff could raise funds to pay back the debt, help curtail the flow of money OUT of the country and put people to work, which would also help raise revenue.

I don’t believe the 3-5% figure. That might be what the statistics or reports say but I don’t believe it, personally.[/quote]

Dear Bob, the problem of the US is not china, or the RMB value, it is the US economy structure. if it is not china, then it will be india with their call centers and IT services, and if not india then it is the middle eastern countries with their oil and gas. Regarding the small tarriffes, it might raise some money as you said but the question is who will pay this money? it is the American consumer, and the Chinese workers as some of them will be laid off and then re-employed after a while. Atarriff will not be an easy thing and I believe that neither Presedent Obama nor the Congress will take any step that they will regret it later on, because both sides no that they are in the same boat.[/quote]

Once again, why must it be like this?What tangible benefit has it brought to Americans over the last 10 years…say. Or is the government run for the benefit of corporate profit primarily, just don’t get your argument, all the facts point at the failure of non-tarriff treaty in alignment with low currency strategies of Asian currencies. It is not a level playing field in any shape or form.
In fact most American companies are probably starting to regret that they killed their golden goose (the world’s richest market- USA) as they get squeezed out by better connected Chinese companies now that China is actually developing an internal market.

Does somebody knows a Taiwanese bank that accept to open Yuan accounts? i know chinatrust can’t…

Sorry, I don’t know.

I bet China is going to use it’s leverage on the Iran nuclear energy issue to keep the yuan low awhile longer anyway…

Maybe a stupid question, but how is it possible to freely buy and sell Chinese yuan, if it has got exchange rates fixed by the communist party? Wouldn’t such a possibility ruin their effort to keep it fixed? Just thought non-China banks can’t have their hands easily on the yuan.

I think you can just go to the bank and buy it. It’s value doesn’t fluctuate because they don’t let it somehow.

There was an article in the Taipei Times saying that you could buy USD3,000 worth of yuaN, but only if you could find a bank with any left. The banks say that there has been such a demand that they can’t keep up. Probably a lie to help justify the extra commision they began charging recently. It is now more expensive to buy yuaN in Taiwan than in any other country.

Anyway, the whole situation is definitely interesting. The US has "decided’ at this point not to rule on the issue of whether or not China is manipulating it’s currency value while it sticks to the idea of having good relations with China. What most Westerner’s don’t understand is that having good relations with China means giving them “face.” And what giving face means is doing and saying what they want us to do and say while smiling as we give up our most cherished values. Anything that deviates from that basic plan will hurt their feelings.

Right now the west has hurt their feeling over:

  1. Weapons sales to Taiwan (not “really” an issue as within ten years the two countries will be one and the west will be left contending with the combined economic and military strength of “both” countries. If you doubt that you should have a look at the EFCA agreement, or have a look around at the number of apartment complexes going up, who do you imagine will be moving in there?)

  2. The Dalai Lama’s visit to the US (not really an issue either as the Dalai Lama doesn’t advocate independence. Besides there is a long standing tradition of having the Dalai Lama visiting the US).

What really frustrates Beijing is not being able to capitalize fully on it’s new bully boy status.

Meanwhile Western nations lose their maufacturing capability and everything that goes along with that. They watch Chinese firms come in and set up shop, protected by the rule of law, while western firms trying to do business in China face growing hostility, unofficial barriers to trade essentially.

Western media outlets are not as forthcoming as you expect on these issues because, quite likely, many of them are already “owned” by Beijing…

From an article: “Chinese Regime Strenthens Infiltration of western Mainstream Media” in The Epoch Times…

During the week before the 2009 Chinese New Year, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Political Bureau Central Committee held a meeting to discuss propaganda campaigns outside China for the upcoming year.

During the meeting’s concluding speech, the Standing Committee member who is in charge of “ideology” pointed out that due to the joint efforts of the Propaganda Department, the “United Front” and the Foreign Affairs departments over the past decade, most overseas Chinese media companies very much carry the identity of the CCP’s policies and practices.

The official felt that major Chinese newspapers in Western countries are all able of having a strong interaction with the local government, except for several small newspapers controlled by the so-called “three anti-China forces.” The CCP thus decided to continue their heavy investment in propaganda campaigns overseas.

During the Propaganda Minister’s speech, he said that after the fund was allocated, several overseas Chinese media outlet owners have contacted the Propaganda Department and said that they were willing to cooperate with the CCP to promote “China’s international image.”

However, leaders from the “United Front” and the CCP’s Intelligence Agency warned that discretion should be exercised when appropriating the budget to overseas Chinese newspapers because advertising revenue from CCP-funded companies should be enough to keep them cooperating with the regime, and as such, there is no longer need to give them special funding.

Instead, a special report from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs suggested that the CCP begin to focus their attention on Western mainstream media outlets. They cited the UK publication Evening Standard’s acquisition by former KGB agent Lebedev as an example to follow and urged that the CCP begin training overseas Chinese agents to begin to acquire Western mainstream media.

They continued in their meeting to cite examples such as CNN’s so-called “distorted” remark on the Chinese regime in 2008, claiming that it sounded a warning bell showing that that simply manipulating overseas Chinese media is not enough.

Some foreign affairs experts believe that the CCP’s current perceived strength on the international stage and their subsequent influence on world affairs lead them to be fully capable of gaining full control over several mainstream Western media outlets.

It was not a coincidence that the CCP’s Intelligence Agency’s report mentioned the acquisition of a British media outlet by a former KGB agent. The report analyzed the increasing financial difficulties that many Western media outlets are facing during the current global economic crisis and made the conclusion that the time is right to begin attempting to acquire such outlets without it being construed as a political move.

The Ministry of State Security warned that extreme caution should be exercised when selecting which agents should attempt to acquire Western media. Their recommendation was to inject money to various overseas Chinese media and utilize them as the pawns who would take control of the outlets.

All of the meeting’s participants reached a consensus that the main goal of the CCP’s 2009 overseas propaganda campaign would be to concentrate all of the Party’s financial, material, and human resources to infiltrate Western media through either the injection of funding or direct acquisition, with the ultimate goal being to so-called “enhance China’s international status.”