Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

Which country has prevented China from invading by issuing threats that it might use force to stop it?

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Huh? Eisenhower deployed Nuclear Artillery in Taiwan during the Korean War. If the threat is severe, the US can do it any time.

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How about not answering a question with a question?

What if the answer to the second question is the answer to the first?

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According to the Carter Administration, the US changed diplomatic relations to pull China away from Russia because the US was trying to avoid facing down 2 superpowers simultaneously. Strategically a very good plan to keep China and Russia from uniting their forces. But it was a different time, and a different understanding.

Somehow, some way, the Carter + Brzezinski duo made a massive strategic blunder because of a total misreading of the national security landscape.

They thought it was Russia that would pull China into its sphere — when in fact it was China that was trying to pull Russia into its sphere, and by engaging China it only accelerated the process. The US thought that they would weaken the strongest foe, but inadvertently made the strongest foe even more powerful in all aspects.

When the USSR dissolved, China with its political and economic boost went in quickly to secure ex-KGB agents from ex-soviet countries that could subvert new Russian government and ensure a future Russia would be allied with China as the world turned its focus on eradicating communism from Moscow to Beijing. It was probably clear to the US by mid 80’s that China was not planning to be a friend to the US longterm. By the 90’s China was able to buy out Russia, executing Beijing’s orders for the next 3 decades until now. People like Putin and Kim Jong Un carried on as Chinese puppets. After Tianenmen Massacre things got serious - the US and China were on a collision course in 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis and Congress convened on what to do with China — Engage or Contain? They felt at the time the greatest chance for peace and avoiding nuclear war would be to engage China even more through Trade, locking the two countries tightly together and making each dependent on the other to reduce the chance of conflict - with the cost of decoupling being too high to be worth it, and leveraging this against China to prevent expansionism in Taiwan and elsewhere.

Well now we are clearly in a Containment strategy as the CCP has wildly disregarded all international rules, almost completely disregarded economy, concealing the real numbers, and is making no efforts to change course.

So you see, the US has always had Taiwan’s back - and the rest of Asia. It’s always been in US and Indo-Pacific interest to protect Taiwan, and that’s what they have done for decades. You might see the changing of diplomatic relations from one to the other as an insult, but that doesn’t reflect the truth or intention.

What if the US were to suddenly declare the roc as the legitimate china like before? How would Beijing respond?

Chuck a hissy fit over the butthurt feelings of the Chinese people lol

Jump in the DeLorean and dial up 2023. For a whole bunch of reasons what was going on 70 years ago has zero relevance to anything now. For starters, the ROC was an ally of the US and was recognized by the US as the legitimate government of China.The US had thousands of troops stationed here and the ports were full of naval vessels. So yeah, not relevant at all.

The answers to number one, two and three are the same.

That’s a question.

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3rd one, too

Ok. So for the greater good and pursuit of world peace Taiwan was sacrificed.

There’s so much horseshit in this to unpack I don’t even know where to begin.

Maybe you weren’t around at the time but I was. The Soviet Union was collapsing. Tens of thousands of Chinese were protesting in Tianemen square peacefully demanding democracy. The Iron Curtain was melting away and peace was breaking out all over the world. It was a jubilant time. Really a great time to be alive. The Berlin Wall was taken down. I was there only weeks after the gates separating east and west Berlin were opened. I broke off a chunk of the wall with a hammer and I still have it to this day. There was talks of the “peace dividend” and how the US would be able to shave all the money from its enormous defence budget.

Yeah, well that didn’t happen. The MIC made sure of that. After they ran down thousands of their own people with tanks in Tianenmen. The CCP regime was on its knees. The brutal authoritarian government was about to collapse. All it needed was a little nudge. China would be an open and free democracy like the rest of the world. What happened? Did the US sanction China? Did she take the opportunity to recognize Taiwan and force the collapse of the CCP. No. Of course not. Only months after the Tianenmen massacre, George Bush landed in Beijing to reassure Deng Xiaopeng that all was good. There would be no sanctions and the US would fully support the CCP and its rule over China.

So yeah sure. The US has Taiwan’s back.

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Yea sometimes I think the US no longer cares about freedom and democracy anymore, perhaps they stopped decades ago. Now the amount of government power in America is so big that I have to wonder if even the us itself is free and open at all.

Maybe secretly the us is becoming like china?

Taiwan is still an excellent Ally. The point is, China was ready to invade Taiwan during the Korean War when the Americans were pushed back to Busan – the threat was a clear and present danger at the time, so Eisenhower put Nuclear Artillery in Taiwan to use against Chinese invasion fleets. Luckily China didn’t risk it.

It’s no problem for the US to do that again. And, how do you know there isn’t something equivalent already? :laughing:

But Taiwan was obviously not sacrificed so I don’t know what you’re trying to prove here. :laughing:

The US was still supplying Arms to China until the Tiananmen Square Massacre (with the hopes that it was keeping China close to the US, and deterring Russia). President George Bush immediately halted Arms sales to China following the incident and the US has never resumed them since then. It was a pivotal moment in US-China relations, just as the West was warming up to the idea that maybe things with China were going to be alright as the USSR dissolved, instead they took a turn for the worse. Additionally the Bush and Clinton Administrations immediately began countering reenergized Chinese influence operations in Eastern Europe that were aimed at halting the expansion of NATO - Bush particularly realized the situation was grave, and needed to expand NATO rapidly to battle “Post-Soviet Forces” aka China and Chinese proxies. China already sunk its claws into the Balkans resulting in genocide, invasions, and a proxy war between NATO and China/Russia throughout the 90’s.

It was more than just nukes in Taiwan…

It was more like Mao found out that invasion of Taiwan literally required over a million troops IN Taiwan, getting them here was already a huge problem. Then the Korean War happened, and those troops were needed elsewhere.

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Clearly it wasn’t.

Yes

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That’s one way to see it. Lol

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Not trying to one-up anybody, just trying to get my own head clear.

According to CNN, the senior Bush was in China before he was President:

–Ben Westcott and Steve George, “How George H.W. Bush became Beijing’s ‘old friend’ in the White House,” CNN, December 1, 2018

The same article says that Bush went to China after he was President:

The CNN article also says that in the month after Tianmen, Bush sent Brent Scocroft to China:

The New York Times says that at that time, Bush sent a second person there as well:

–Maureen Dowd, “2 U.S. Officials Went to Beijing Secretly in July,” December 18, 1989

So it looks as if Bush was in China both before and after he was President, and it looks as if, as President, he sent two people there in the month following Tiananmen. But I don’t see any record of him personally going to Beijing, as President, in the immediate aftermath of Tiananmen. I’m prepared to be corrected, though, if I’m mistaken.

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Keep your enemies closer isn’t really a supportive geopolitical position. :whistle:

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