Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

As I wrote I read the articles you posted. Xi won’t care what happens in Ukraine or Russia. Xi will care if an invasion of Taiwan sparks a war with all it’s trading partners and China is starved of imports. Especially food.

There seem to be private Chinese groups in Africa, at least according to this article:

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Article assumes Wagner is not secretly a Chinese Private Security company.

The reality is both Putin and Prigozhin work for Beijing. They both report directly to the CCP, and therefore Putin and Prigozhin are essentially at the same level - same as Kim Jong Un, and other Axis dictators whose economies are totally propped through the Chinese black market trade.

China claims it “supports” Russia — yeah…but Beijing doesn’t care who the puppet is so long as the people love the puppet. If the people overwhelmingly support Prigozhin then Beijing will gladly swap out puppets. Either way, Russia has no more government - and let’s say a Pro-Democracy leader is elected in Russia, won’t matter much since they are extremely dependent on China now more than ever.

As for what was the 1 day coup? Maybe just China sending Putin a clear warning that Beijing can replace him very easily. After all, Putin was just a kgb paper pusher, never was a super spy, and he’s not actually some kind of evil genius. That’s what China wants you to think — Beijing plucked him out of the remnants of east Germany and gave him some tasks - he happened to be luckier than other ex-kgb, getting a Trade position (perfect for China) and then being handed new positions with Beijing pulling all the strings. Putin might have thought he earned some of it, and maybe believed he could restore Russia to its “glory” days, but now he knows his world was made by the Chinese Communist Party and it can be taken from him at any moment. Worst of all, the world knows he’s a nobody - he’s just another puppet like Kim Jong Un level. Embarrassing.

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and you base this bold claim of “reality” on…? and how long has this been the case? :wink:

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They are both alive because they both work for the same boss — China.

From the beginning - After the fall of the USSR, China snapped him up along with many other ex-KGB.

This article seems to be saying that most of the Chinese groups operating in Africa are unarmed:

Paul Nantulya, “Chinese Security Contractors in Africa,” website of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 8, 2020

That’s quite a leap of logic. Do we all work for the China, as we are all alive? :wink:

Huh. So why has China struggled with some things over the years (like military jet engine dev (although they’ve been on a roll recently)) rather than just totally bringing the Russian companies on board?

Don’t they have enough on their plate?

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They both work for the same boss, otherwise Putin would have wiped out Wagner, or Wagner would have completed its “coup”.

And speak of the devil, Russian frigates off the coast of Taiwan these days. Like I said, Putin and Prigozhin, and Kim Jong Un, etc are just workers for the CCP. They parade around with their so-called Nationalist “restore to glory” ambitions while making literally every possible move to undermine themselves and yield fruits for China in big ways.

I don’t know why China struggled before on jet engine development, does that prove anything though? If US and France are both in NATO alliance then why does Boeing struggle in areas where Airbus succeeds - does that mean US and France are not strong Allies? Of course not. Surely there is a lot of cooperation now - and at least opportunity for money to exchange hands between the Russians and Chinese even though China is outpacing now.

LOL China cannot design or create the metals required. That took decades of research from materials scientists and engineers. China can only steal that information to get ahead. The same for it’s space program. They paid a Chinese chap working for NASA who stole and sold all that information to China for US$ 3 million.

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They can’t even make the steel required for the ball for ballpoint pens… Let alone jet engines!

China produces more than half of all steel in the world at present.

but not special grade steel needed for jet engines and… ballpoint pens!

Alloys for fighter engines not the same thing. Same as the Blackbird SR71. No one can make that plane or the engines required anymore as no tooling available.

It would be unwise to sell China so short IMO. They have been developing the industry by whatever means and they are producing all kinds of products including for high-quality applications. Practice makes perfect

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18/finally-china-manufactures-a-ballpoint-pen-all-by-itself/

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It took them a while, still a few more decades for jet engines then.

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It took decades of research, sure, but there isn’t some U.S.- or western- or democracy-specific secret preventing the development of these high-performance alloys.

Advances in materials science are essentially a function of how much money and how many people hours get thrown at the problem (both of which China has in abundance), and material characterization and modeling techniques nowadays are way more sophisticated and readily available than they were even 20 years ago. They’ll obviously encounter problems along the way, but again - money and time. China has been investing quite a lot into research for at least a decade or two, some of which has military applications.

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I have a thread for that

Good for you, but I’m not going to International Politics. :sweat_smile:

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