Read again. The sentences aren’t very long.
So it will alarm US hawks to see that SMIC, a large Chinese foundry, has been able to crank out a chip based on 7-nanometer processes.
Regardless, that SMIC – a company on the US trade blacklist (Entity List) – has any kind of 7-nanometer capability is not what China’s opponents will want to hear.
Tsmc is down to 3nm
What you said, whether devil’s advocate or not, still makes no logical sense. Yes anything is possible, but some things are a lot less possible or plausible
Pineapple cake sounds like a devilishly sweet plan, tho
Badly of course. But it didn’t stop it happening and it didn’t make it end.
Another Devil’s Advocate view of this is that the West is now tied up and too busy if the Chinese start an adventure in Taiwan.
No one knows, and I doubt even Xi will know if he starts it.
I don’t know what edging is.
So let’s be clear then, I do not endorse or support this view but am throwing it out for the sake of not having a one sided debate.
ASML is a spin of JV from Philips, who are one of the major early investors in TSMC in the 80s. The two companies are umbilically linked.
There isn’t a scenario where China starts a war with Taiwan and ASML carries on selling to SMIC
It’s about as plausible as well.
And they die in the end.
This argument is like saying someone 1m ahead of you in a 100m race is going to keep his distance forever.
So the article is about 1 year old (7/26/22). Do you think China’s best has not improved beyond 7nm since then? Or that China has not managed to make some headway in replicating EUV machines?
The Chinese of course are utterly incapable of reverse engineering or innovation on their part.
Tell me if they have
ASML isn’t selling air conditioners these lithography machines produce heat three times hotter than the sun(can’t remember what actual numbers are).
ASML themselves rely on components from the U.S. , Japan etc
And this is just the fabrication part of the equation, not the design part, which is dominated by the U.S.
Anyway this is irrelevant, China isn’t going to war for semiconductors
I don’t think you understand how complex this technology is
Who on earth is arguing this point?
Honestly man slow down a bit. Think things through.
Guy
And ASM is also related to ASML and Philips.
Tied up where? A bit low on some ammunition maybe
Right, but the longer it is up the more time and incentives others have to break it. QUAD, AUKUS
From the article you shared. If you can’t understand the title, I guess we’re done here
What if China is willing to pay using pineapple cake?
I have a tragically unappreciated thread on that
Wars in Asia against much weaker opponents haven’t gone well for the U.S. I’m not sure why a war with a China which is on track to become the largest economy in the world in twelve years would result in a decisive U.S. victory.
Historian and Korean War veteran Bevin Alexander had this to say about Chinese tactics in his book How Wars Are Won:
The Chinese had no air power and were armed only with rifles, machineguns, hand grenades, and mortars. Against the much more heavily armed Americans, they adapted a technique they had used against the Nationalists in the Chinese civil war of 1946–49. The Chinese generally attacked at night and tried to close in on a small troop position—generally a platoon—and then attacked it with local superiority in numbers. The usual method was to infiltrate small units, from a platoon of fifty men to a company of 200, split into separate detachments. While one team cut off the escape route of the Americans, the others struck both the front and the flanks in concerted assaults. The attacks continued on all sides until the defenders were destroyed or forced to withdraw. The Chinese then crept forward to the open flank of the next platoon position, and repeated the tactics.
In the First Phase Offensive, highly skilled enemy light infantry troops had carried out the Chinese attacks, generally unaided by any weapons larger than mortars. Their attacks had demonstrated that the Chinese were well-trained disciplined fire fighters, and particularly adept at night fighting. They were masters of the art of camouflage. Their patrols were remarkably successful in locating the positions of the U.N. forces.
None of us have a crystal ball. Wars have been started for more, or less, than “semiconductors”.
Or perhaps you do not give the Chinese enough credit for being able to reverse engineer, R&D, innovate or replicate their own versions of it?
China leads in 37 of 44 technologies tracked in a year-long project by thinktank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The fields include electric batteries, hypersonics and advanced radio-frequency communications such as 5G and 6G.
So if China can lead the rest of the world in 37/44 strategic technologies, ASML’s EUV machines just happen to be something the Chinese are unable to take a lead on?
It is a mistake to sit on our laurels assuming:
Could be lots of reasons. For starters, this wouldn’t be a land war in Asia. As well, the PLA that spent years fighting Japan and the KMT is not the PLA of today
Or they could be pragmatic about it and tell Taiwan they believe the blockade is an internal “policing matter” and they will deal with Taiwan through China, thank you.
A Chinese blockade doesn’t automatically mean war between China and the rest of the world. The turning point will be when one side tests the blockade and how the reciprocal responses play out.