Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

[OrangeOrganics]

What technological edge?

Do you want to be specific?

If you are talking about TSMC being top for Semiconductor fabrication, I think a long time, if not for the forseeable future. Im tired and i cant be bothered to get into this, but I suggest you spend some time understanding what TSMC does and why its where it is.

[TT]

@OrangeOrganics

I suggest you spend some time understanding what TSMC does and why its where it is.

Oh look, my memory is good enough to remember you making that suggestion 7 hours ago!

@OrangeOrganics

Like go and read about semiconductor manufacturing

[OrangeOrganics]

Can read the excellent chip war.

[Flint]

@OrangeOrganics

What technological edge?

Do you want to be specific?

If you are talking about TSMC being top for Semiconductor fabrication, I think a long time, if not for the forseeable future. Im tired and i cant be bothered to get into this, but I suggest you spend some time understanding what TSMC does and why its where it is.

Any technological edge we have over them. But since you raised TSMC…let’s discuss TSMC.

This is precisely the type of arrogant view of Chinese capabilities that will lull us into thinking they cannot overtake us technologically.

@OrangeOrganics

but I suggest you spend some time understanding what TSMC does and why its where it is.

This statement presumes you have extra knowledge which I do not have. You have no knowledge of my background and you feel qualified to presume you know better. Since I got involved in this thread you didn’t even appear to know SMIC was making 7nm chips as of 2022.

Nevertheless, kindly educate us: what is the special sauce you think will keep TSMC’s edge for the foreseeable future? Kindly illuminate us here what TSMC does and why it is where it is.

[TT]

@Flint

This is precisely the type of arrogant view of Chinese capabilities that will lull us into thinking they cannot overtake us technologically.

You mean that book? Have you read it already?!

@Flint

This statement presumes you have extra knowledge which I do not have.

He did provide that book as a reference…

@Flint

Kindly illuminate us here what TSMC does and why it is where it is.

If you don’t know this, you should really do that reading.

Anyways, he already said:

@OrangeOrganics

Im tired and i cant be bothered to get into this, but I suggest you spend some time understanding what TSMC does and why its where it is.

And gave you a book to read. If you already know all this, just say that

[Flint]

@OrangeOrganics

Can read the excellent chip war.

Oh wow you read a book so I guess that makes you the expert. May I ask if you have any science or engineering background and work experience?

So summarize the points of the book here. I’m busy reading my own subject matter on EUV emission from tin plasma droplets.

[Andrew0409]

The likelihood of an invasion has gone up and down throughout the years. But nevertheless, the risk remains.

[TT]

@Flint

May I ask if you have any science or engineering background and work experience?

As a show of good faith, I think you can volunteer that information about yourself if you are asking it of others

Also, since you’re new maybe you didnt know you can learn more about TSMC here

The TSMC Thread

UTokyo and TSMC said they plan to collaborate on cutting-edge research in materials, physics, chemistry, and other fields to push the limits of scaling… I assume this is to get chips under 2 nano? This is also the first time TSMC is collaborating with an entire university department. They’ve only done so with individual academics in the past.

[Flint]

@TT

As a show of good faith, I think you can volunteer that information about yourself if you are asking it of others

Also, since you’re new maybe you didnt know you can learn more about TSMC here

I’m not the one in this thread claiming to have superior knowledge to others and that they should go RTFM. May I suggest the ones that claim to have such knowledge demonstrate that they are, in fact, the experts they claim to be.

@TT

Also, since you’re new maybe you didnt know you can learn more about TSMC here

Thanks but I have a family to take care of, a demanding job (hint: in science and technology) and other responsibilities.

I would be grateful for a condensed version.

[OrangeOrganics]

Fine, I will write a post explaining this to you tomorrow. For whatever reason.

[Flint]

Thank you.

[Poundsand]

@Taiwan_Luthiers

However I believe they built a carrier hull that was used for target practice as well as explosive test, and even the us navy couldn’t sink it. They actually had to send demolition teams aboard to scuttle it.

is this a confused version of your previous claim, or a different claim?

Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

1 - 5 fleet carriers water sunk in WWII (more escort carriers, but that’s a different beast) 2 - you’re probably thinking cv-66. That’s a kitty hawk class built in the 60s, and that happened in the 2000s, not in WWII. 1 - They’re fast for a big ship. They’re not vaguely fast. 2 - turn on a dime, again, relative. Takes like 1/3 of a mile. Carriers don’t move fast relative to someone on a scooter.

@Taiwan_Luthiers

Yea… Not sure you’re going to get any strategic bomber within 300 miles of any carrier battlegroup

you wouldn’t need / want to with the claimed capabilities.

@Taiwan_Luthiers

If china sinks any USN ship americans will demand war

if they sank a carrier, war would be the point.

@OrangeOrganics

China isn’t even second or third most advanced in semiconductor fabrication. I think next is Korea , then Japan and then the US.

What does Japan have more advanced than what Intel can do (overall capability to produce advanced chips, not onsie - twosie niches)?

[afterspivak]

@Flint

Thanks but I have a family to take care of, a demanding job (hint: in science and technology) and other responsibilities.

So you cannot read any books? You appear to have heaps of time to post here.

Guy

[OysterOmelet]

@Flint

The previous article I linked, said it can make 7nm chips as of July 2022. A year since, China of course has been unable to copy, replicate, innovate on their own because as we all know, they are just rice farmers.

That’s not what the article said. It said te 14nm was a stepping stone for making 7nm. They’ve only succeeded at trial production of 14nm, which is another beast from volume production.

I knew a girl from South Carolina who simultaneously thought Asian people were “good at math” and “poor rice farmers.”

[jdsmith]

@OysterOmelet

I knew a girl from South Carolina who simultaneously thought Asian people were “good at math” and “poor rice farmers.”

Did she correct herself and say,”WELL at math,” ma?

[Flint]

@afterspivak

So you cannot read any books? You appear to have heaps of time to post here.

How did not having time to read one book OO posted get to cannot read any books? You understand the difference between one and any right?

Yeah I regret coming to post in this thread, so far a complete waste of time arguing with “1 = any” (you) and “export of 7nm EUV machines barred to China = all ASML’s exports barred to China” (OO) posters.

But let us see, perhaps OO will illuminate me with his expert opinion and I will learn something from our resident TSMC expert.

[Flint]

@OysterOmelet

That’s not what the article said. It said te 14nm was a stepping stone for making 7nm. They’ve only succeeded at trial production of 14nm, which is another beast from volume production.

China edges closer to chips self-sufficiency despite US efforts

So it will alarm US hawks to see that SMIC, a large Chinese foundry, has been able to crank out a chip based on 7-nanometer processes.

Here are other articles to quell any ambiguity:

Disruptive Technology: 7nm SMIC MinerVa Bitcoin Miner | TechInsights

China figured out how to make 7nm chips despite US sanctions

They are already nipping at our heels in the semiconductor race but OrangeOrganics feels pretty comfortable declaring:

@OrangeOrganics

If you are talking about TSMC being top for Semiconductor fabrication, I think a long time, if not for the forseeable future. Im tired and i cant be bothered to get into this, but I suggest you spend some time understanding what TSMC does and why its where it is.

@OrangeOrganics

Fine, I will write a post explaining this to you tomorrow. For whatever reason.

I look forward to reading his post.

[yyy]

@OrangeOrganics

Their trains will just stop working

Would they not be able to tinker with them so as to keep them running albeit at lower speeds? Just curious.

[yyy]

@QuaSaShao

@TT

But you said they had no stomach and tried to get out as soon as possible.

There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.

― George W. Bush

Foolery keeps evolving. It’s micro-targeted now. Micro-targeting on a grand scale is doublethink to the nth power.

Just sayin’.

[Poundsand]

Besides which, let’s all get a grip on what better processes mean - a 14nm process is more than capable of producing very, very, very capable chips. i9-11900k is 14nm for example. There are advantages to the newer processes of course, but it’s not like we can tell the actual difference between an apple a9 chip at 16nm vs 14nm, nor is the 14nm a9 better than the 16nm a10.