Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

Whataya mean gradually? What are you waiting for Slovakia? Just fucking doing it already!

You know what China’s like. You know you can’t satiate the insatiable beast!

No, because the “refugee” talking point predates North Korea got the nuke, which is only a few years ago. And South Korea CAN get nuke if it wants, easily.

Yes, and therefore there is no possible way South Korea needs US help in defending against North Korea, since South Korea is much more powerful than North Korea, more so than China is to Taiwan.

I don’t think you’re making any sense

I’m on an American board where someone asked this:

Why are we getting involved with Taiwan? Isn’t Taiwan an internal issue of

China? I understand and support our support of Ukraine being an independent nation, but Taiwan seems like another Vietnam in the making.

People started piling it on and he didn’t get a single defender. I didn’t comment (aside from correcting people) just to see what others would say. Some of the responses:

“Because the US has a lengthy history of championing free countries”

“Only the CCP considers Taiwan “part of china” most of the rest of the world Considers them an independent country. They consider themselves an independent country.”

“Huh? Taiwan is a free and independent country w its own political system and its own thriving economy. Yes, we should act with caution but I have no idea where you get the idea that it’s an “internal” matter for China.”

“They make a lot of microchips. China would control the market. There are also strong advantages to having Taiwan from a military perspective.”

“Sounds like something a Chinese bot would say.”

“That’s a history bending take. It would be more fair to say China is a part of Taiwan. The Communists fought the government in China and the government escaped to Taiwan. Successful in their revolution on the mainland, the Communists, of course, installed themselves as the government. So, no, Taiwan isn’t a renegade province of China.”

“I disagree with your premise. Secondly Taiwan is significantly more strategically important than Ukraine. Taiwan makes the lions share of the most advanced chips we have.”

“Got to be one of the worst takes on this subject and very ill informed.”

“What do you mean” getting" involved? We’ve been involved since before you or I was born"

"After WW2, the Communist Chinese forced the Nationalist Chinese to Taiwan. During this time, the USA supported Taiwan as an ally and did not recognize the Chinese as a legitimate government.

As part of improving relations with China as the cold war winded down, the USA and United Nations recognized Beijing as China, in effect leaving Taiwan high and dry and stripping them of their UN seat in 1971 (even though Taiwan was a founding member).

Still, while diplomatically not officially recognizing Taiwan, the USA continues to sell weapons and support the Taiwanese government militarily to prevent a take over by Communist China.

This makes the commies in Beijing very angry, which is partly why Top Gun: Maverick is banned in China for showing a Taiwan flag on a patch on the back of Mavericks coat, commemorating a joint exercise with the Taiwanese military sometime in the 80s.

It’s not simply an internal Chinese matter, it’s a regional issue with geo-political complications that has Japan essentially building aircraft carriers again. A conflict in Taiwan would have global implications."

“Taiwan is far more important in a political sense than Ukraine. Taiwan has been an independent polity for decades, and is more democratic and less corrupt than Ukraine. I have a hard time understanding how someone could support Ukraine but be indifferent to Taiwan.”

“Because when the Communists took over China for good post WW2, those wanting democracy fled to Taiwan for refuge It literally is a democratic refuge and has been since the late 1940s. China of course wants it back and to squash democracy so close to its border. So that’s why.”

“Look up what % of semis are manufactured by Taiwan Semi”

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Nevertheless, China’s meteoric rise, fueled by annual GDP growth above 6 percent, appears over. Yes, China’s economy has been cooling for years, plagued by systematic deficiencies like chronic overinvestment, massive debt loads, and a shrinking workforce, which has put enormous stresses on China’s finances. But these systematic trends have been exacerbated, perhaps irreversibly, by China’s disastrous pandemic response, where the lack of an effective domestic vaccine and the CCP’s unwillingness to approve and purchase Western ones have made rolling lockdowns a permanent way of life. So far, the CCP’s containment measures have resulted in plummeting industrial output, surging unemployment, capital flight, and a sinking currency.

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I wonder what foreign investments will look like in 2022. It surprisingly held steady in some sectors as China appeared to be handling the Wuhan flu and getting ahead of it compared to the West. But this is no longer the case. Delisting of Chinese firms from the US will also be interesting.

I liked it better when I posted it, @Marco gave a good second post, posting the same article a third time seems a bit much :man_shrugging:

I just want to say that the title says can China invade Taiwan within a year and it’s been 3.5 years.

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Or rather, it can hit a Chinese warship positioned as far away as Beijing.

Even better. Punch a nice hole in their new carrier.

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Would be severe LOL if on day one of any conflict Taiwan sinks a Chinese carrier. After all the boasting the last couple of years that US carriers are toast due to “supersonic PRC missiles”.

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Agree with most of these, but

No, they don’t. Most of the rest of the world considers them part of China- including the US.

That’s a history bending take.The ROC overthrew the Chinese Empire and were themselves overthrown by the ChiComs. China has never been part of ‘Taiwan’.

No, they didn’t support ‘Taiwan’ as an ally. They recognized the Chiang dictatorship which suppressed Taiwan, claimed all of China, and regarded Taiwan as an insignificant province (they got better- out of necessity.)

“Those wanting democracy” did not flee to China; the KMT government imposed a dictatorship. It was not a “democratic refuge… since the late 1940s”, it was a thuggish dictatorship until 1996, when the first democratic election was held.

Other than that, A-OK.

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No they don’t.

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No they don’t consider Taiwan part of China. US and many others consider the status of Taiwan as undermined.

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Agree with everything you say.

Also, most governments don’t recognize Taiwan but most people think it’s independent.

I feel safer knowing Taiwan’s democracy, chips, and geopolitical importance are in the American consciousness.

There have been increasing chatters about Chinese invasion after IISS last week. However, PLA is bluffing. They realized they’re back to the drawing board after seeing Ukraine. The window of opportunity is closing on them. Hence the huffing and puffing.

By PLA’s own calculation, their military success always hinges on the political isolation of Taiwan. This is nothing more than a basic variation of siege tactics. The more isolated the lower the morale and the more defectors.

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Who is “them”?

If you are referring to Taiwan (i.e. “us”), then the US position is that our status is undecided.

EDIT: Plus what @Marco and @Whatevah said.

Guy