Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

Eh Canada has not threatened to take over Alaska nor is blocking passage over Niagara falls. Nor did they take over Seattle port while agreeing free trade for 50 years…and quit this policy after barely 15.

And while treatment of indigenous peoples is abysmal, current there is no systematic elimination of specific tribes. Nor have there been military spokesmen asserting that the population of Alaska will be eliminated and the land kept.

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This year. Unlikely, but in a couple of years maybe? Also they don’t need to attack. Once Taiwan loses its semiconductor making crown, the US will naturally lose any interest in defending the island. The mainland will offer a 20% discount on anything TSMC makes and soon enough most people won’t be able to distinguish Taiwan from Thailand.

First island chain?:thinking:

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This factor is overstated. US had an interest in Taiwan not being PRC-controlled long before the relatively recent semiconductor industry.

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I would rather not leave it up to chance. Time to get started on some other high tech stuff. Otherwise this place will be nothing more than a pineapple republic.

And no one will give a crap.

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Blockade of any kind violates the TRA.

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The thread wasn’t started this year, looks like you have some catching up to do. Taiwan is very different from Thailand, but you’re right that there are two many eggs in the semiconductor basket

Taiwan has longtime been of geopolitical importance to the US and Allied Forces.

Dig through 70 years of US Historical Archives and hours of CSPAN footage, you will see that Taiwan has been strategically important long before the semiconductor industry even existed in Taiwan.

The land itself and the Taiwan Strait is the number one priority - Free Taiwan must never fall to Communist China. Never. If it does, then the US relinquishes it’s Pacific Power over a major part of the region. Relinquish power, then become a slave to China until the US and all Pacific Allies can build up their independent supply chains.

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As a modest first step, they should relinquish that apostrophe. :neutral_face:

Guy

What happens if the KMT wins? They were leading last time, and probably would have won if China waited until after the election to screw over Hong Kong. What would happen if Free Taiwan pulls off a deal the Chicoms for something like “one country, two systems”? If Xi had played nice for a couple of years, the Taiwanese might have gone along with it- what then?

That’s Ma Ying Jeou and Hung Hsiu Chu’s wet dream to be the “patriots” in charge. Unlikely, though.

What? How much do you know about Taiwan’s tech industry? What are you talking about.

Yeah Taiwan’s value isnt semiconductors, its the position in the first island chain. As many also said

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Mark Esper, 27th Secretary, U.S. Department of Defense

One China Outdated

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From the video… Five things that Taiwan needs to change now:

  1. 2.1% military budget is insufficient
  2. 4 month conscription is insufficient
  3. reservist readiness is not good enough
  4. secure a steady flow of munitions
  5. stockpile food and build up telecommunications infrastructure
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And it’s still silly. If that was the only value of Taiwan, no one would have cared about it a long time ago already. The US could and would easily just brush it off.

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Agree. Imagine Japanese imperial planning in the late 19th century as they negotiated the Treaty of Shimonoseki with the Qing Empire. Does anyone think that semiconductors were why they wanted to acquire Taiwan? :slightly_smiling_face:

Guy

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I don’t get the math. How does a nation of 23 million defend itself against a nation of 1.4 billion a mere 100 klicks away?

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9 terrains, fortress porcupine Taiwan, asymmetrical warfare

They have to make it too costly a quagmire to even begin

Consider Afghanistan, Vietnam, Ukraine as examples.

Of course, Taiwan is different. Is the desire and ability here to fight for freedom, to struggle and suffer for their nation, enough ?

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