Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

You should read the content of the TRA in detail then.

SEC. 15. DEFINITIONS.

For purposes of this Act—

(2) the term “Taiwan” includes, as the context may require, the islands of Taiwan and the Pescadores, the people on those islands, corporations and other entities and associations created or organized under the laws applied on those islands, and the governing authorities on Taiwan recognized by the United States as the Republic of China prior to January 1, 1979, and any successor governing authorities (including political subdivisions, agencies, and instrumentalities thereof).

The TRA inherited the definition of Taiwan from the 1955 Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty.

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to the surprise of absolutely no one.

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Daily Mail is strange to me. Their articles (the ones not strictly tabloid nonsense) seem to have a right wing slant, or at least anti-woke, but they also seem to delight in tearing apart Boris Johnson and Donald Trump. I guess they’re more New York Post than Daily Caller. I do find them to be an entertaining read sometimes, even as poorly researched and written as their articles are.

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yeah the Pelosi trip is unecessary

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Not sure if it is thinks or worries.

Some quotes from the article:

“The Biden administration has grown increasingly anxious this summer about China’s statements and actions regarding Taiwan, with some officials fearing that Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait, through which U.S. naval ships regularly pass.”

…“And we may be heading to an earlier confrontation — more a squeeze than an invasion — than we thought.”

“U.S. military officials say a sea-and-air invasion of Taiwan would be difficult for the People’s Liberation Army to pull off today. If China did move earlier than expected against Taiwan, it could do so piecemeal, perhaps by first invoking their recent declaration on the status of the Taiwan Strait and conducting a limited operation to gauge Washington’s reaction. Another theory is that Beijing might try to seize an outer island close to China’s coast.”

A contrasting opinion from the same article:

“Ivan Kanapathy, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a China director on the National Security Council under Presidents Trump and Biden, said canceling the trip could undermine Washington’s attempts to strengthen Taiwan’s relations with other democracies and efforts to boost its profile in international organizations and venues.

“A big part of why China worries about what the U.S. does is because we open up space for others,” Mr. Kanapathy said. “And that’s what China really worries about the most — more legitimacy for the Taiwanese government in the international community.”

I do wish they had played their cards closer to their vest on the potential Pelosi visit as I think this argument has merit.

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A self-serving 82 year old fossil with more Botox than brains is going to get us all killed and/or subjugated.

Now we’re in a Catch-22. Cancel and we appear weak, or go through with it and we appear provocative.

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The DPP governmenbt are paying for her to come because an election is coming up. There is no point to it at all

Why are we all supposed to hate KMT again? I forget. At least under them, relations appeared stable.

That’s what China wants you to think.

Taiwan is fighting for its literal existence. Like, come on.

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I know people who worked in military intelligence during the last administration. Taiwanese soldiers/spies were being pimped out to China to do the dirty work for the CCP that the CCP government didn’t want their own people to do. That’s very different from “stable relations” — it’s problematic on sooo many levels.

Alex Tsai, the KMT politician threatened that defetor Chinese spy Wang Liqiang as a proxy for the CCP, just a few years ago. There are videos of it all and he is still a really prominent politician in Taiwan

Don’t drink the kool aid! It’s been flowing around for quite a while, as mockingly shown here:

Guy

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Because some of them are scoundrels who would be delighted to reunite with the sons of the yellow emperor across the strait. Unfortunately for us, they do not view this as a matter of personal choice (they could simply move there if they like it); we risk getting dragged along.

EDIT: Plus what @Marco and others have said above.

Guy

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Stability is important @afterspivak

Let’s just submit to the CCP’s will. All of this trouble ends as long as we do what they say. Are you against peace?

/s

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I read China is waiting till 2050 to absorb TW diplomatically. Otherwise, they will try new tactics, including military,

2050 may have been the original plan but Xi knows he’ll be dead by then and the bastard desperately wants a legacy equal to his hero Mao. I think this is the same reason they moved on Hong Kong way before their 50 year one-country-two-system arrangement had expired (the one China promised the UK they would have when they took HK back in ‘97).

Nope. Until VERY recently, full on backing of the Johnson gov.

Section 2 of Taiwan Travel Act 2018 uses broad language including peace and security in the “Western Pacific Area”, of which Taiwan and Taiwan islands are located.

“Western Pacific Area” is repeated for each point in regards to interpreting Taiwan Relations Act, deliberately, so as not to list out Taiwan and Penghu, and Kinmen, and Matsu, and Dongsha, etc

This indicates that US Congress finds Taiwan’s outlying islands in the Western Pacific Area to be part of Taiwan; furthermore, any threats to peace and stability in the Western Pacific Area in relation to Taiwan will be of grave concern to the United States.

Congress finds the following:

(1) The Taiwan Relations Act (22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq.),enacted in 1979, has continued for 37 years to be a cornerstone of relations between the United States and Taiwan and has served as an anchor for peace and security in the Western Pacific area.

(2) The Taiwan Relations Act declares that peace and stability in the Western Pacific area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States and are matters of international concern.

(3) The United States considers any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.

In this reading, we can deduce that China invading any island of Taiwan’s is a threat to peace and stability in the Western Pacific Area, and would be of equal and grave concern to the US — not only that, but they go a step further to indicate it would be of International Concern. This is a very clever approach of tying into future international discussion the recognition that other countries may also have of Taiwan and its Western Pacific areas, or islands.

So much for the famed ability of Beijing (as per a&&holes like Kissinger) to “play the long game.”

Guy

Many people thought Russia was a paper tiger, and while they didn’t perform well they are still causing immense damage to Ukraine. Everyone thinks china is a paper tiger too but I don’t think so.

A lot of people think Japan will get involved but I doubt it, too many nukes at a minute away, they will stay out of it.

Status quo is the way to go imo. It’s worked well for years and inflaming the situation with Pelosi won’t work out the way they intend it too.

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