Japan is under the US nuclear umbrella.
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Who thought that? Everyone, both western and Russian, thought they would crush Ukraine in weeks. US even offered to evacuate Zelensky. Actually the most surprising thing is how ineffective Russian army is.
There is no universe where Japan doesnât get involved. They either fight for Taiwan or prepare to surrender.
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Source? Iâm sure they tell Taiwan this in private at least, so that theyâre not emboldened, but just recently Pelosi, Biden, and I think Blinken, have all said âitâs up for the Taiwanese people to decideâ. To decide, not to negotiate it with China, or wait for some day that China agrees (ie never).
So there will just be more fallout across Asia. Nice
But yeah no way Japan gets involved.
I think you guys are putting a lot of faith in getting help. So did Ukraine.
A couple thoughts:
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Blockading the Taiwan Strait would make sense for China. Itâs not a full blockade of Taiwan, and thus not as clear-cut of an act of war (?). I mean, I guess any blockade of any countryâs ports/waterways is an act of war, but it would be a bit different. Obviously very serious still, and could easily lead to confrontation.
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Another smart move by China might be to send drones into Taiwan. Theyâve obviously never wanted to send jets across - and despite the talk of it recently, I donât think they do still. But drones? Taiwan can shoot down drones and it doesnât change the picture. Iâm not sure if itâs a positive or a negative to them though, domestically. They look like theyâre asserting their ârightsâ to Taiwan, but at the same time theyâre getting their shit blown up, soâŚ
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If war ever does break out, Taiwanâs airports could look something like Afghanistanâs did.
Found a non-paywalled copy (I think):
EDIT: Nope. Just the same titleâŚ
but add this url to your adblock/whatever block list and the paywall is gone:
https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/main*
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Japanâs Constitution, written by the U.S. military in 1946, forbids it from activating its military except in an attack on Japanese soil.
â Japanâs constitution bans it from carrying out this inherent and universal right. Under Article 9, Japan cannot help to defend its ally the United States, unless the Japanese territory itself comes under armed attack.
Japan also canât act together with other countries in UN peacekeeping missions if it might entail any armed conflict. This makes Japan an international anomaly. Outrageous as it may seem, at one point the Netherlands armed forces were assigned to protect Japan Self-Defense Forces participating in the same multinational mission in Iraq â because under Article 9 the Japanese couldnât be engaged in combat, even to defend themselves.â
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Taiwan falls to China and Japan might as well commit seppuku. China can block all its oil shipments.
Ukraine has no strategic value to the United States.
Western Pacific Area is used to describe territories that the US holds in the Pacific, whichat the time would be Guam, the Marianas, Palau, and other trust territories in the Pacific.
Personally I think US should concentrate on their own fucking problems instead of interfering internationally all the time.
Promoting war.
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We all know what will happen if the US clears out of the neighbourhood. Itâs not ambiguous.
Guy
Shortsighted, the isolationist result would be worse than war. US really has no choice in the matter but to step in - lesson learned after WWI and WWII. When neighbors problems are left to go out of control they will one day become everyoneâs problems, just common sense.
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Fair enough, however I donât think US is stopping ww3?
China could take out Taiwan before Biden had got out of bed. Then what would they do?
Taiwan stays as ROC and doesnât claim independence China will leave em alone.
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No.
The US wants the status quo. It doesnât want to go to war. I will find the time to give you a link later, but itâs common knowledge
US is trying to stop WWIII through deterence.
Phase 1: Scare straight all the Allies who have procrastinated for decades into realizing they need to shore up their defenses immediately, and rebuild their military and defense systems so they are battle ready.
Phase 2: Establish new Alliances in AsiaPac. For example QUAD and AUKUS.
Phase 3: In a unified voice, condemn Chinaâs actions and strongly suggest that they must change their direction. Without Phase 1 and Phase 2, there is no leverage, and no good reason for China to pay attention and listen to what the free world is suggesting.
Phase 4: This part is up to China to decide. They can either proceed with their aggressive military campaign, or de-escalate tensions seeing that they are up against multiple powerful alliances.
Based on what have seen so far:
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China is not going to leave Taiwan alone, as evidenced by their recent Invasion of Hong Kong, Military Coup by Proxy of Myanmar, executions, assassinations, Refusal to condemn Russias invasion of Ukraine, etc. China has constructed massive concentration camps housing up to a million Uighurs (we do not know if they are even still alive) , and have proceeded to militarize the South China Sea. Chinese expansionism is wreaking havoc all around the world.
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If Taiwan falls to China, the US and Allies must wrestle it back to restore human rights to the Taiwanese, and restore the Island Chain, shipping lanes, and supplies. If US and Allies do not fight back, then Taiwanese would be forced to live under oppressive regime, while Japan and S Korea would be at the mercy of whatever China decides to do with the Taiwan Strait. It could be the worst interruption to global supply and resources in history, and a human rights catastrophe impacting billions of people.
My view is if the U.S. hadnât led the way by invading Iraq in 2003 China and Russia would be less inclined to invade Taiwan and Ukraine today. At the very least the U.S. and the Coalition of the Willing would hold the moral high ground today on the issue of respecting the sovereignty of smaller, weaker countries.
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The US lost that high ground waaaaay before W showed upâfrom the annexation of Mexican land in what is now the continental US to the annexation of Hawaiâi, then Guam and the Philippines in 1898 . . . the amount of Filipinos killed as the US tried to take control was staggering.
Guy
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China does not want direct conflict with any country. They have more to lose than anyone in this conflict. China has some slight internal problems at the moment with banking and other corruption. And the Beijing government has not delivered on their promises to the middle and lower classes.
What your saying is correct, my opinion that 
is stoking problems rather than solving.
Taiwan cosying up to doesnât help, however does help arms business? Though they wonât sell same latest high tech aircraft and weapons that they do to Japan and S Korea.
Putin laughed at and Europe, is Xi as determined as Putin? If so heâll carry with whatever he wants. After heâs bought half of Africa and SEA.
I agree there. But if Taiwan changes their constitution, I bet you the US will recognize them and stop the one-China crap. And still come to Taiwanâs aide militarily.
I think everyone in the US govt knows that we will protect Taiwan, so it wouldnât make sense to a) constantly say âitâs up to Taiwan to decideâ, and b) let Taiwan be gobbled by China just because Taiwan did what we didnât want them to do and declared their obvious independence.
Itâs a US president who decides what countries to recognize diplomatically, and Biden himself said âitâs up to Taiwan to decideâ.
I mean look, we know that if itâs not Taiwan changing the status quo, it will be China. The status quo will not persist either way. So the US prefers the status quo, sure, but I donât see us turning our back on TW for being the ones to democratically change it, and China be the one to react with violence.