Does anyone have good resources for the Belt and Road Initiative China was promoting?
I heard that Sri Lanka and Pakistan are likely to default on their debts to China. Is that true?
Well the guy doubled down on another interview and repeated the same concept.
Because the authorities of #Taiwan have done a " desinization " education on its population, which is effectively indoctrinated and intoxicated. It must be re-educated to eliminate separatist thought and secessionist theory
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They just donât fucking get it. Do they?
Hey China! Sheâs just not that into you!
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But they are consistent, from Tibet to Xinjiang to HK.
Anyone who thinks that those of us in Taiwan are super special and would somehow be exempt is living in lala land.
Guy
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He had another two interviews in the last few days. You can look it up.
Lu Shaye needs to be reeducated.
Like, live somewhere where thereâs a free-flow of information.
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Eh another ambassador echoed his words.
And China published a document about bringing Taiwan into the fold.
Nazis also told people what they were going to do. And the first ones subjugated were their own.
What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of a Future US-China War Over Taiwan
A think-tank exercise with former Pentagon officials foresees grim results.
As China waged extensive military exercises off of Taiwan last week, a group of American defense experts in Washington was focused on their own simulation of an eventual â but for now entirely hypothetical â US-China war over the island.
The unofficial what-if game is being conducted on the fifth floor of an office building not far from the White House, and it posits a US military response to a Chinese invasion in 2026. Even though the participants bring an American perspective, they are finding that a US-Taiwan victory, if there is one, could come at a huge cost. . . .
In sessions that will run through September, retired US generals and Navy officers and former Pentagon officials hunch like chess players over tabletops along with analysts from the CSIS think tank. They move forces depicted as blue and red boxes and small wooden squares over maps of the Western Pacific and Taiwan. The results will be released to the public in December. . . .
âThe reason for the high US losses is that the United States cannot conduct a systematic campaign to take down Chinese defenses before moving in close,â he said. âThe United States must send forces to attack the Chinese fleet, especially the amphibious ships, before establishing air or maritime superiority,â he said. âTo get a sense of the scale of the losses, in our last game iteration, the United States lost over 900 fighter/attack aircraft in a four-week conflict. Thatâs about half the Navy and Air Force inventory.â . . .
âTaiwan is a large island, and its army is not small,â said Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at the MIT Center for International Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts, whoâs participating in the war game. âBut from a qualitative standpoint, Taiwanâs army is not at all what it should be, and we have built that into the game. The transition to an all-volunteer military has been botched, and although conscripts remain an important component, the conscripts serve only four months.â
For the umpteenth time, the purpose of war games is toâŠ
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Truth right here. An existential threat from the worldâs second largest power and military service is only 4 months. What a joke. They should look to South Korea and Israel for how to do this kind of thing.
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Yeah, with the army Taiwan has, itâs clear that she is intending to fight until the Americans arrive. Afterwards itâs back to eating æ»·è飯, çèéș” and sipping çç 愶è¶.
Lifeâs good.
Apparently Xi Jinping has come out and set a deadline of 2049 for reunification.
So if we take Hong Long as the example you can cut 20 years off that and assume invasion by 2029.
Depending on economic conditions, ie Chinaâs economy slipping into oblivion and inability to repay their massive internal debt, then you could shave a few more years off that. So probably around 2026.
The question becomes will Taiwan have the iron dome network set up and ready to go by that point. As it stands only certain sections of the island are covered at the moment. Also by 2026 Taiwan will have their own submarines and underwater unmanned drones operational. And unmanned UAVs operational and combat ready. As well as a number of new battlecruisers and coastguard frigates operating and the full upgrade to the f16 fleet and the new f16 orders having arrived. On top of that the boosted missile capacity to 500 a year, so letâs assume 350 a year, means a minimum of 2000 missile ready to launch with precision strike capability.
Also donât forget that Taiwan already has substantial underground infrastructure for civilians to go to hopefully keep them safe. And itâs doubtful that China would be able to land troops on the ground. The exercise last week will allow Taiwan to refocus efforts to bolster the East Coast defense network.
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They could possibly be ready to begin military invasion at this time with a chance of success, depending on how things develop, including developments here you point out
I also think the 2024 elections in the US and Taiwan are going to be important in Chinese calculus here. If they get a Chinese friendly government here, or a jingoistic government there, then maybe no need for immediate military action. But if there is a strong independence aspect to the victory here, and the government there is isolationist or a mess, time to take the chance.
So yeah, 2022 to mid 2024 no worries. Post 2024 election period it will be time to reconsider everything, including not just military and economic developments, but also social issues, technology, geopolitics
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As it stands thereâs no chance the KMT will win. And itâs looking iffy that Ko Wen Je has any realistic chance. The DPP would have to choose someone so decisive that it would force people to either ko wen je or the KMT.
If ko wen je wins then itâs really a game of cat and mouse. His position on China is unclear although he does like inviting them and then taunting them for their responses.
The KMT will just go about passing Taiwan to China which was what Ma ying jiou was trying to do. That would result in millions of people marching down the streets like what happened last time. Also Taiwanese now have the actions of the CCP central government very fresh in their minds. Increasing visa numbers for tourists to Taiwan only to decrease them when the DPP was elected. And all the imports restrictions theyâve placed on Taiwan since then.
And of course those import restrictions they placed on Taiwan they also tried on Australia. Itâs a deliberate flexing of economic power however it is having disastrous effects for the Chinese economy. It also doesnât take much imagination to see how the same methods can be applied to Chinese companies importing raw products.
Unfortunately it is when authoritarian led economies start failing that authoritarians start resorting to drastic measures. Like Russia with Ukraine right now.
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Per reports, the Pentagon says they wonât even be ready until 2027.
What about drone submarines with torpedoes? Pilots in bunkers could circle and fire and retreat to rearm. Way cheaper than manned submarines, hard to get a fix on, and can fire on enemy ships as well as submarines. The tech shouldnât be too advanced for Taiwan to start producing them in a few years
Probably cheaper just to make torpedoes with guidance systems. Drone torpedoes?
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Dronepedoes! Yes!
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