Can China invade Taiwan successfully?

Drop plenty of 臭豆腐 and Agei along Taiwan’s perimeter to dissuade China from attacking.

That would probably have the reverse effect. If Chinese legends are true, stinky tofu was invented in Anhui.

I might need to reevaluate my 5 year plan after all. Stone age

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Seems like it’s time to buy the stocks of drone makers.

If Taiwan’s DoD doesn’t have a standing order to shoot at a drone near a military outpost, then bigger problems are likely on the horizon.

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Don’t judge those guys too harshly. They are probably the poor guys who couldn’t get their four month training reduced any further. Skimming stones and smoking. What more do people want?

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You’d need to use a low frequency to carry in water (or acoustic), which would greatly limit your data rate, so you’d probably need to rely on an autonamous system rather than a remote piloted one.

Comms for this seems crazy advanced to me. Torpedo carrying AI that I’d trust not to kill someone by accident also seems way advanced.


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I don’t judge those guys. If anything I commend their initiative and inventiveness. The worry is that they had to take it upon themselves and rocks was the best option

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For AI, sure, I was thinking more like the drones we already see in the air. But i didn’t know water would be a signal problem (makes sense)

Would it be easy enough to have above water drones that route signals, so there isn’t much water to pass through ?

That is exactly what I thought about. Especially when looking at the camera guy’s face. He looks like he is meeting aliens.

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“Ohhhhhhhhhhhh shit, what do i do now?!?!?!”

A pool cleaning net would be helpful. Or maybe a gun the fires a net? Or at least a directive to shoot them with the guns

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The worry, for me, is that some dickwad is watching Ukraine footage and gets the idea that he can drop something improvised that starts a shitload of posturing.

How it starts:

What’s the gist of it? The summary up there gives it’s flavour with the “self-ruled island” bit, but NYT asks for my deets.

Just search “How China could choke Taiwan” to get past paywall:

In “The Science of Strategy,” a key textbook for People’s Liberation Army officers, Taiwan is not mentioned, but the target is clear. The textbook describes a “strategic blockade” as a way to “destroy the enemy’s external economic and military connections, degrade its operational capacity and war-fighting potential, and leave it isolated and unaided.”

During this month’s exercises, China avoided more provocative moves that could have triggered a more forceful response from Taiwan. But it still sought to convey real menace, putting Taiwan on notice about the risks of not meeting Beijing’s demands.

“I think they have shown their intentions, encircling Taiwan and countering foreign intervention,” said Ou Si-fu, a research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, which is affiliated with Taiwan’s Defense Ministry. . . .

An actual blockade would involve hundreds more ships and aircraft, as well as submarines, trying to seal off Taiwan’s ports and airports and repel possible intervention by warships and planes sent by the United States and its allies.

In a blockade, China would also need to control the skies. China has an array of naval and air bases on its east coast opposite Taiwan, and many more up and down its coast. The Chinese military could also try to shoot down enemy planes with surface-to-air missiles, or even strike at U.S. bases in Guam and Japan.

Thanks a lot.

I still don’t get how this idea is believable. The assets they’d have to use “Blockading Taiwan” would leave their bloodstream open if similar measures were to be used against them in the Indian Ocean. They’re safely navigating that area at the whim of navies not their own. Pissing off Japan and S. Korea by slowing traffic through the Strait seems a bit of a hot potato, as well.

If Taiwan had gold, oil or some other resource to pay for a hot war and it’s aftermath I’d be more on side with the things we read and see.

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Nope. High frequencies practically hit a wall when they encounter water, and low frequencies require bigger transmitters / receivers, and a small drone would not be able to put out much power. All that and you’d be marking where your drone subs are.

(point of reference, the US Navy has a facility in Maine (VLF transmitter Cutler) to provide 1 way communications to subs at 24khz. The facility is like 2000 acres and transmits at close to 2MW. The bandwidth isn’t enough even for voice, and the subs still need to be close to the surface (within ~100’) to receive a signal. ELF clam lake used even lower frequencies, with transmitter cables buried over some 28 miles).

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Ok. Surface skimming dronepedoes? Doesn’t go underwater until it is time to blow?

So a cruise missile that dives? why do you need it to dive at all?