We do remember what happened after that, right? 
Guy
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Nothing pretty much, some sanctions that the russians brushed off and no harsh response from the international community. In my eyes, this lack of response gave Putin the courage to go on full scale invasion.
Edit and addition :
Xi could try a limited move against outlying islands to test the international response, i hope ir will be harsh and decisive.
Grabbing a piece of land progressively emboldened Putin. Does anyone seriously think Xi would be different?
The key point is to make sure Beijing knows that any military adventure they make would be completely unacceptableāfull stop. Even if Kinmen does not have, as @nz and others have pointed out, any real strategic value (for that, see Penghuāif they make their move there, watch out!).
Guy
The key is, im afraid the Ukraine precedent shows a lack of decisive response from the world.
The Ukrainians got mostly thoughts and prayers and were left to fend for themselves. Only after a few good months did the west start providing them with arms.
Sanctions proved useless, Russia is still standing, and countries like India and China didnt care about anything and continue doing business with Russia. If China attacks Taiwan they will still have the backing of other pariah states and their indebted allies.
The only conclusion i have is that Taiwan must fend for itslef, not through soft power and bubble tea diplomacy, but through a ādont fuck with meā attitude.
No
It works for Israel, but China is a more dangerous adversary and the Isrealis are a more tested people*
*tested by history, the Taiwanese have the edge for mulitple choice
I know some soldier has been known to defect over by swimming. Itās close, but also heavily defended. It would not only open china up but also be a huge morale hit to taiwan. If china takes all the outlying island china shows it can positively threaten taiwan and cause them to sue for peace. It would also vastly reduced casualty to civilians should it come to war.
I agree with this. If Beijing makes this move, itāll be part of an accelerated campaign of psychological warfare / terror to try to get what it wants.
Of course such an adventure could also backfire, and lead to a massive backlash against China, especially with Putinās adventures so fresh on peopleās minds.
Guy
1 Like
As the old laugh we ((and the ccp) and no, we are not on the same page with the ccp)) would have. They donāt need to bomb the place. Just start swimming to Taiwan en masse.
It would be quite the spectacle, but the Rio Grande does well alone.
If it was that easy they would have taken it back in the day.
Swimming around isnāt hard until the shooting starts.
I saw a video that says they managed to land some troops there, and all were wiped out.
As I said: psychological warfare, producing and circulating such images is part of their gameplan.
Donāt fall for it!
Guy
Time hasnāt come yet. They will light it up when they deem the time is right.
I wouldnāt go that far. I used to know a lot of the soldiers there. I invited some of them to go running with me and all of them were worn out about ten minutes into the planned 40 minute run. At best, my mile time when running long distances is around 13 minutes, so it spoke volumes about how unfit in basic fitness they are. If you canāt run a mile at a leisurely pace, I canāt trust you can do much else in combat. Kinmenese soldiers would roll over and let China in if they tried to invade, but again, other than ānananaboobooā, Kinmen doesnāt hold strategic value.
If true, hopefully this will . . . make it harder for them to swiftly run away to China? 
Guy
1 Like
Well, I been through basic on taiwan. The training is inadequate. I think theyāre afraid of someone dying in training.
But the training is barely enough to run into machine gun fire and die.
The talk shows are talking about the destruction of temples in China, the war the Communist Party has against any form of religion, from Muslims in Xinjiang to Catholics and Christians.
So they are talking about the temples in Taiwan in Taiwan and how theyāre going to be destroyed. But not only that. Symbols of past history like the Presidential building will go under. CKS Memorial Hall too.
Thatās why it bothers me so much when people abroad say: but in Taiwan they are Chinese too. Not the sameā¦
Anything celebrating CKS or the old KMT will go, but Hong Kong churches and temples have been left alone, right?
It was the Cultural Revolution that wiped out the temple. Under Xi, Confucius is seeing a revival as a method of control. Islam in Xinjiang is a threat because it isnāt Chinese, and puts God above the party
Not the same, no
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Dunno, man. Temples here are a different kind of animal. The Western churches have had a hand in Taiwan democratic development and social welfare. Traditional taoist and Buddhist temples are basically a complex web of relations extending into the political. Buddhist organizations are huge here. And anything that powerful and organized represents a threat to CPC almighty.
I think all those rebuilt Japanese era dorms and buildings, especially the wood structures, will be in serious peril under CPC rule.
would be the least of our problems
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I know but they are being used as museums, meeting halls, exhibition sites, handicraft markets. As part of history and current culture and SME it is still a loss.
I was thinking of the first dance studio by a Taiwanese dancer in Taipei, victim to a fire. Very accidentally.
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I know many that were destroyed in Taipei. Saw it happen relatively recently even. Rip out a few boards, let the wind and rain do the rest.
I also suspect them of poisoning old trees. Any trick in the book.