Can China invade Taiwan within a year?

I didn’t say it goes anywhere, I’m saying the issues they got doesn’t bode well in the long term and I don’t think Taiwan should tie itself to China

Also, with all this union talk, what makes you think China will not reneg on any deal that is made ? They have reneged on the join declaration, scs, seventeen point agreement, etc

Hence why I said Taiwan needs international recognition as a new type of political entity in the UN.
Im trying to find the middle ground between full independence and blindly trusting China.

Taiwan IS tied to China already. Republic of China cannot disappear without a war. We cannot even change the Constitution in any real way.
Economically we are massively intermarried with China.
Geographically we are 70 miles away.
Militarily we are their number one target.
Culturally there are close links.
The world knows Taiwan often as Chinese Taipei or Taiwan China and there is NOTHING we can really do about it as far as I can see from what has been happening and the constitutional bind along with the membership of the olympics etc.
My own country has almost no official links with Taiwan and that situation is pretty common unfortunately. It’s a real pain in the ass for me for many years and it’s gotten worse and worse. To my homeland Taiwan is ALREADY part of China in many ways.

It’s only some big countries really that maintain good links with the Taiwan government .

It sounds defeatist but it’s the reality. So we should negotiate something but not one country two systems…

So, I guess I could be open to negotiate something. But, serious question, why do you think they will uphold whatever is agreed upon when they haven’t done that in hk ?

Hence not one country, two systems.

Very good point. This is why I think the only way any kind of agreement could work is if it is a purely symbolical change, but mostly keeps the status quo. Like a country name change (“Free area of the Republic of China” comes to mind :stuck_out_tongue:), and an agreement about how to present the new entity internationally.

Anyway, I hope whatever happens, the China government would not gain any real world power over Taiwan (Laws, currency, armed forces, mass immigration of mainlanders, …). As we can see in HK, they can not be trusted to stay true to the spirit of any arrangement.

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That would imply that an area of the ROC is not free.
ROC = Taiwan
PRC = China

Free area of the PRC?
They would never consent to that. Never.

Correct. That’s the PRC :wink: See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_area_of_the_Republic_of_China

Oh…
I see what you did there. Ha!
At this point, China is China (PRC) and Taiwan is Taiwan. I wish Taiwan would drop the whole ROC thing

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Isn’t this really just a stab at concessions from the west along the same lines as what the Kim family has been doing for decades? Do they really want a war they can hardly afford, politically and economically? Do they really want 25 million democratic people causing them a rash? They already have their hands full with their western borders as it is.

I know the only limey in Kinmen.

To be fair, Kinmen and Matsu are really a different story—right next to China’s coast, and in many ways the genuine leftovers of the civil war (they were not, for example, part of the Treaty of San Francisco, as they were of course not ever formally Japanese colonies).

If/when Taiwan finally ditches the burdensome ROC shell, Kinmen and Matsu residents should have the right to a referendum or some other mechanism to determine what they want in the future.

Guy

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