Can Taiwan seriously undermine a PRC invasion/occupation of Taiwan without US help?
0 voters
Ok, I know this is a hypothetical question and the answer may seem obvious. But can Taiwan’s military seriously undermine a PRC invasion without US military intervention?
Can Taiwan’s air force achieve air superiority over the PLAAF?
If the PLA successfully lands on Taiwan, can Taiwan effectively use guerilla warfare against the occupiers?
In all seriousness, no, nope, and snicker…
Read all the published war games Taipei runs. It’s not really pretty at all if ROC tries to go it alone with the PRC.
Click the links at the top and see what the PLAN has been doing.
Contrast this to what the Taiwan military has been doing.
Given a choice, my preference is more on “homecoming” inclination in spite of the possibility of cynical condemnation from some doubters here. Mind you, war does not benefit anybody. Perhaps, at least they’ll agree with me on the later point.
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TGM -
Jeff has some good info on his site.
Some of it amazingly timely… 
I haven’t the faintest idea what you are talking about.
Eventual reunification seems to be what is being hinted at in the opaque statement.
Although I would like to mention the bullet manufacturers in Taiwan would benefit greatly in the event of an armed conflict with the PRC. So I too would like to agree that the vast majority would not benefit, but some would benefit.
If you can pry all that talent away from their internet gaming and tell them they’ll get free Nai Chas if they kill then TW may have a chance. That’s about as good an hypothetical answer I can come up for a hypothetical question…
Taiwan has no chance in the medium to long term.
In the short term, Taiwan can put up a good fight. I’m sure the army, police, and citizens would also put a good urban and mountain defence too (at least those that choose to bear arms and defend Taiwan as opposed to those who flee).
The ROC air force could put up a valiant, but ultimately fruitless, venture to delay PRC troops from landing by trying to secure air superiority and attempting in vain to bolster the overwhelmed ROC navy. But sheer quantity from a similar (or slightly less) quality PRC air force and navy will break morale and resistance eventually.
Plus, there remains the spectre of constant missile bombardments on military bases, ports, and communications facilities. I’m assuming that the PRC doesn’t target populated urban centres, although that is just an assumption.
The key and biggest challenge for the PRC would be air and naval superiority, without which the PRC would not be able to land any troops on the island. With air and naval superiority, beach landings (like the Normandy invasion in WW2) on Taiwan would be possible and largely uncontested too, besides any land-based coastal defences.
Once PRC troops land on the island, it’s pretty much over. The urban centres will fall; if not, they’ll be destroyed (I can picture the PRC being reckless like this). A more medium/long term problem would be an asymmetric war conducted from the Taiwanese highlands by die-hard remnants of the ROC military and citizens, but these would be eventually flushed out with PRC brutality.
The best option would be to just capitulate and save the lives of thousands, if not millions. Unless, of course, the government is willing to sacrifice its citizens to try to maintain power for as long as possible.
China to Increase Military Spending
Rise of 17 Percent Continues Decade-Long Military Buildup
This has been floating around for the last several days…not really anything new.
Will the local Taiwanese population really have the will to fight off a Chinese full invasion?
Or will they basically just stand aside and let the Chinese troops come ashore? (like how
the Iraqi military basically just evaporated when the US trooped marched in…)
Beside, the Chinese have nothing to gain if they invade Taiwan. Such a military action
may actually bring about political instability within China… which is not a good thing.
Have you ever seen the polls among ROC college students over this issue. Like 10% would just wait to die. Basically the majority who are of conscript age would not fight. If my recollection is accurate, some of the students answered, they were girls, so of course they wouldn’t fight.
Evaporate is just to generous of a word, because it assumes that there was some will to fight to begin with. That is so far from the truth…
“10% would just wait to die.” ??? Sounds scary…
What was the poll question? “When the Chinese troops arrive in Taiwan,
everyone will be executed… will you fight or wait to die?” 
College kids should have unlimited kegs of beer, eternal flames of pot(where legal),
as well as plenty of sex… fighting wars shouldn’t be their problems…
Taiwan Students too Intelligent to Die for Taiwan Independence
According to the results of a scientific poll conducted in late March by the Chinese Culture University on Taiwan, 65% of the university students on Taiwan would be unwilling to defend the island if the Chinese Communists were to attack; only 35% would be willing. Released on April 7, 2005, the poll surveyed 1161 students enrolled at National Taiwan University, National Chengchi University, and nine other major universities in northern Taiwan.
Poll: University Students’ Views on Cross Straits Conflict
Source: Culture Weekly, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
Question One: “If the Chinese Communists attack Taiwan, would you be willing to defend Taiwan’s territory?”
Question Two: “If the Chinese Communists attack Taiwan, what would be your reaction?”
Question Three: “Why wouldn’t you be willing to go to the front line?” (不參戰的原因?)
[quote=“TainanCowboy”]China to Increase Military Spending
Rise of 17 Percent Continues Decade-Long Military Buildup
This has been floating around for the last several days…not really anything new.[/quote]
Great thing about currency appreciation of the RMB… in USD terms, China’s military budget actually grew by something like 27-30%.
[quote=“cctang”][quote=“TainanCowboy”]China to Increase Military Spending
Rise of 17 Percent Continues Decade-Long Military Buildup
This has been floating around for the last several days…not really anything new.[/quote]
Great thing about currency appreciation of the RMB… in USD terms, China’s military budget actually grew by something like 27-30%.[/quote]
does China actually have a military “budget” to begin with? I would imagine that the
military gets a blank check and can buy almost anything the politburo wants… 
there are plenty of on-going unresolved wars at the moment… the world doesn’t
need another major conflict between China and Taiwan. What does the party bosses
have to gain by succesfully conquering Taiwan? The booze will still taste the same.
The blonde mistresses will still be just as hot.(yes, some Chinese communist top brass
do have white females on the side…) The food will taste the same. The only
way to win a war is not to start one in the first place.(or something like that… )
The poll should have one more option…
Sadly, I do NOT think the US can stop a full-scale Chinese invasion on Taiwan.
It will be a difficult military task… which will takes at least a couple hundred
thousand troops, a minimum of three CVBGs, and possibly even a limited use
of strategic weapons. That’s assuming the US can count on the cooperation
of Japan and Korea. The economic impact for the US will also be astronomical,
to say the least. 
Is the US ready to open a 3rd front of war in the next 10 years. Most experts would say no…
And they would be right.
The US has too many resources tied up in Iraq and the Persian Gulf area. The troops are stretched beyond belief.
And China, hopefully, has learned from the Iraq experience. That a large conventional army, even with air and naval superiority, can be bogged down on the ground by large numbers of irregulars and militia participating in asymmetric guerrilla warfare.