I have to make a large purchase in the UK and have the option of doing a one-time, two-time, or pay by installment plan.
Looking at the exchange rates gives me pause. The pound has increased in worth against the NT steadily for over a year.
Would you recommend drawing out payments in hopes of a future drop, or do think it’ll just keep rising?
Or, is this all the realm of crystal balls, anyway?
Looking at my magic 8ball: All indications point to Taiwan $ going down in flames, slowely. Can’t ye buy it in Taiwan?
Well. The price fluctuates daily. Taiwan $ goes down while Taiwan banks are open and up when they closed. Use that info wisely grasshopper.
Wow, you’re right. The NT has been going down steadily v. the GBP for the past 5 years.
ichart.finance.yahoo.com/5y?twdgbp=x
It’s also been going down v. the USD for the past 6 mos or year, but not nearly as steadily as v. the GBP and it was a lot worse in 2003.
ichart.finance.yahoo.com/5y?twdusd=x
I know nothing about such things, but just judging by those charts I’d say v. the USD there’s hope of the NTD recovering, but v. the GBP it looks hopeless. All downhill. Convert as much as possible as early as possible because it will only continue to worsen.
Pounds will keep rising against the NT for at least another few years. There is no chance of it coming down in the short term unless something big happens, but there seems to be nothing on the horizon. Pounds and Euro dollars are becoming temporary safe havens for former American dollar holders. The British economy is also fairly good right now which will hold the value of the pound high for some time. The pound is way, way over inflated however and there will have to be an eventual drop at some point, but that point may be at least a couple of years away from my readings.
I too am wishing for a drop in the pound. It was 50 nt when I came to Taiwan and now of course it’s about 65-67nt at a bank. Taiwan is continuing down the tubes and Britain is still booming unfortunately.
UK will raise its interest again?
NTD has been going down to pounds since I had the account.
[/quote][quote]Taiwan is continuing down the tubes and Britain is still booming unfortunately[/quote]
You are right.
I dont know will this be better?
I sell my GBP to buy the USD now.
And I hope when the GBP is down to USD about 1.6-1.8:1.
At that time I sell USD and buy the GBP back
enjoy the wait wisher!! I’m not an expert on currencies but will have to convert all savings in Taiwan back to Euro/Pound one day so of course am very worried. I’m transferring my NT into Yen. It is weak as well, but I see it as having a better chance of recovery than the NT.
THe only way the NT will get better if the KMT win, establish trade links etc with China.
NT to euro is also at record high … 1 euro is almost 46 NT$
can other posters submit any good strategies for coping with the pound/euro/aussie dollar highs v the NT? We know it’s terrible, but what is everyone doing to counteract it? waiting??!!
A professionals would buy futures on the NT to reduce possible loss.
I don’t think people are willing to risk their saving of NT on the currency future market.
A more conservative transaction would be to trade NT for a commodity, like gold. Then trade the gold back to currency at the host country.
This leads to commodity trading, like trading NT for oil…etc.
The “government” of the UK has said they won’t enter the euro until Sterling can be valued at a rate that makes British exports cheap, i.e., a low rate. Were Sterling to be allowed to drop, then there would be considerable pressure to join the euro. I doubt any UK government wants to open that Pandora’s box. On the other hand, all those countries with US T-bonds or reserves of USD cash or gold (priced in USD) or the USG itself (wishing to keep oil priced in USD) want to see massive fluctuations in or a depreciation of the USD. Thus I don’t see the USD tanking in the long term. If it does we have a lot more to worry about than the pure exchange rate problem.
I think the euro and Sterling are fundamentally weak but enjoying panic over the USD relating to the Middle East conflict and the huge US deficit. This panic is compounded by the apparent rise in the price of gold and oil which is partly due to the weakness of the USD rather than intrinsic pricing attributes of the two commodities. I believe that the relationship between real demand for oil and gold and the demand for the USD has become skewed in the last few years. I also have not read anything sensible about the US trade deficit (which to a large extent is trade between US companies and their subsidiaries in, say, China), nor are the fantastic numbers relating to the Iraq war fully explained.
As far as the NT goes, it is merely a medium of exchange of the USD international (inc China) trade of Taiwan. As a controlled currency the only way to predict its future is to think “what is the best policy to deal with Taiwanese businessmen sending money from Taiwan to China?” The answer has to be an ever-cheaper NTD in USD terms. This will lower the attractiveness of investing in China, but with the risk of entering into a competitive (or at least one-for-one) devaluation with the USD. However of course the USD is baked by a strong economy and has room to appreciate. The NTD isn’t and isn’t backed by a strong NTD economy.
I have to also like the Yen. I missed its last appreciation, and it is a huge trading partner with China, and has little other baggage comapred to the USD (war), Sterling (war, a directionless economy), and the euro (a new currency and a nebulous concept, now to be burdened with new entrants to the EU).
So I still have a HKD (i.e. USD) account, and split the rest between euros and yen. We are talking about, ahem, tiny amounts of money. I just happen to have a multi-currency account for free.
Others may disagree completely. I honestly don’t think anyone really knows, least of all me.
One pound sterling was NT$44 when I got here. It went down to NT$40 but since then it has been climbing ever upward. As for most people in Taiwan, my salary in NT$ has remained static for a decade. In pound terms, however, it has plumetted. Last time I went to the UK I really felt like a visitor from the third world. How I am going to create any kind of nest egg in the 17 or so years before I retire I really don’t know.
You are so right. You and I are both at sea in the same leaky boat. The DPP regime’s isolationism is a ball and chain round the legs of Taiwan’s economy. If you see me reluctantly aligning myself with the pan-blues, now you know why.
Uhm not to saying anything about the UK currency, but currently NYC tourism office is advertising in the UK as a “bargin” destination for UK travellers. The Pound is really strong right now. But you have 17 years left to see where the trend goes.
I remember when the NT$ was 27 to the US$ - some years before that it was nearly 40 to the dollar, so there’s been a bit of yoyo movements.
I would not worry about where it would be 10 years down the road, but keep my savings in the local currency, and only save in EUR or GBP when the exchange rates improved a fair bit.
As a few people here have said, it’s impossible for anyone to predict where the NT$ is in 10 or 15 years or if there will be a NT$ say 15 years down the road.
what are the factors that will affect NTD or any currency to go up/down? is there anyway to know how long/high it will go?
GBP to NTD seems more stable than other currency to NTD.
not sure I’d agree with that. I’m guessing, and it is just that because I can’t be bothered to look at the charts, but I reckon the NZ dollar/Australian Dollar/ Thai Baht/ Euro have all had similar performances v the NT over the last two to three years.
It’s 65-66NTD to one pound and 44-45 NTD to one EUR.
Do you think GBP and EUR are at the appreciation limitaion now?
[quote=“wisher”]It’s 65-66NTD to one pound and 44-45 NTD to one EUR.
Do you think GBP and EUR are at the appreciation limitaion now?[/quote]
No both the Pound and the Euro still have some space left to climb. UK has just announced another interest rate rise which will only push the rate even higher. Both the euro and the Pound are still seen as safe havens against the unknown future of the US dollar. It is not inconceivable that the UK to NTD could go above 80, which would be double what it was when i came here.
Fortunately Bush is out later this year, so the US dollar may start to make a bit of a comeback, but a lot of that is dependent on who will replace him as President. If it is someone who is seen to have similar economic policies, then it could be the start of the end of the US dollar as a real global currency. There is already talk of things such as Oil etc being priced in Euros rather than US dollars because of its weakness. The US currently is in ecomnomic turmoil, retail spending is not what is could be, and really is not high enough to be able to pay for the increase in interest rates required to bolster the US dollar, that combined with the ridiculous budget deficit will make it very hard for the US dollar to recover short term.
For a couple of years i have been converting into Aus$, but even that now is beginning to see an upturn and benefitting in its own value because of the US dollar, but the increase in Aus$ rates is nowhere near as significant as the Pound or Euro. At least Aus. interest saving rates are still better than most other countries. It may not be that long before we see parity between the US and Aus dollars.
Is it possible that UK raise their interest in the future months again?
I made an Excel chart of the value of the pound, the Euro, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the US dollar vs. the NT$ for the past 5 years. (I used the exchange rates at xe.com/ict). If you look at the chart, it’s obvious that the US$ was pretty stable up until March 2003 and has been steadily declining in value ever since March 2003 compared to the pound, the Euro, and the Aussie, but not compared to the NT$.
So I think the 450 billion that has been wasted so far for the War in Iraq (and remember that most of this money is from deficit spending) has been a major cause of the decline in value of the US because March 2003 is when the Iraq War started, and it is exactly the time when the decline in the value of the US$ started, and it is also the time when the decline in the value of the NT$ started.
If you look at the graph of the NT$ vs. the US$, you will see that the NT$ has been very stable for the past 5 years when compared to US$. It has hardly ever gone below 31.0 or above 35.0 NT$ = 1 US$, so that means for the past 5 years, the value of the NT$ compared to the US$ has only risen or fallen a maximum of 6% from it’s average value of 33.0! So apparently, the NT$ must be loosely pegged to the US$, and this has caused the NT$ to depreciate against most other currencies in proportion to the amount that the US$ depreciates. Hence, the more the US$ depreciates (mostly because of the War in Iraq), the more the NT$ depreciates.
I read a newspaper article in the Taipei Times a few months ago that said that even though the NT$ is not rigidly pegged to the US$ the way that the Hong Kong dollar and the Renminbi are, Taiwan has the third largest reserves of US$ in the world (266 billion!), and Taiwan uses it's foreign reserves to control the exchange rate between the NT and the US$. So that has caused the NT$ to depreciate every time the US$ depreciates. (The reason the Taiwan government tries to make the NT$ pegged to the US$ is because the Renminbi is pegged to the US$, so if the NT$ fluctuated freely against the Renminbi, it would cause havoc to all of the thousands of Taiwanese people who have businesses in China.)
Unfortunately, my salary is in NT$, and my annual pay raise is only 1%. But the British Pound has appreciated by 11.5% in the last year compared to the NT$ (66.9 today compared to 60.0 exactly one year ago)! So I’m planning on opening up a bank account in Britain! (My money now is all in Taiwan and the U.S. so my money has been depreciating ever since the War in Iraq started.)