Read that already, good article.
If you like the Niall Ferguson article, recommend this thread from Michael Pettis on Twitter,who Ferguson quotes in the article
Episode 1-206 can go wank by themselves. This is the first time I ever said this. And even now I’m not saying it’s happening, I just said I’m seeing some cracks and it will happen if the government keeps the pressure on the economy.
“This time is different” is probably the most famous last words before a big collapse
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They are going to have a significant recession and stagnation. There will contagion from the property sector fall out. That wont be a collapse though.
Or it depends what you define a collapse as, if you are talking say Japan, then sure. If you mean the fall of the USSR, then no.
The US just had four years of Trump and a violent insurrection in January, but nobody expects it to collapse.
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Except you totally do. You always sound like a Ko fan.
This is exactly the reason why people believe collapse is a very real possibility. Growth is the only reason Chinese people are satisfied with such a destopian regime, a period of stagnation will turn Chinese people against the CCP and it will cause unimaginable level of social and political unrest.
https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/china/ceconomy/46182-2021-09-27-01-38-47.html
Besides, China’s position today is so much worse than Japan’s in the 1990s. In 1990s Japan was a wealthier country than even the US and W. Europe on per capita basis, rivalled only by absolute outliers like Switzerland, and it was a stable democracy with a functioning civil society. China today is a middling developing country in terms of income and wealth and civil society is non-existent. Property-income ratio in Beijing and Shenzhen is more than 50 whereas in 1990 Tokyo it was barely 20. The bubble can finish everything.
Who? Nobody does. People on Forumosa or Reddit or FLG people. Show me a serious China Watcher or economist who or anyone who actually understands China.
You struggle with people being objective or trying to see things from a different perspective. I know its fun to masturbate on the internet, but im more interested in how things are rather than what I want them to be
Yes exactly. Also opening up China to the free market and the Western world will free their minds and they will reject communism and strive for democracy. The people will turn against the CCP and it will cause unimaginable level of social and political unrest
You are putting together a greatest hits of Bad China Takes.
They are just heading for stagnation or sufficiently slower growth. I dont see the next decade being good for China, but its probably better to calm down a bit. There are a lot of developments to happen before we have a Ceausescu helicopter moment
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Yeah definitely I meant in the Japan sense as in they could stagnate for decades. It could become a total collapse of their housing bubble and their whole economic growth model.
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Yeah, then I agree. They will end up building a lot of infrastructure again though to cushion the fall.
They are restructuring the whole economy to a model we have never seen before though, and im still not sure where its going. Its a completely new socialist market economy model. It could be a complete disaster. What is certain is that China’s 30 years flirtation with liberal capitalism is coming to an end.
Yeah the property bubble is over and real estate wont be a driver of growth. But Chinese people everywhere are deep-rooted religiously addicted to investing in property, so they can definitely have a fire-sale and clear out inventory.
Yea you know the Chinese word for home has the word “pig” under a roof. So people keeping pigs indoor is quite common in China.
Except it wouldn’t not be like Japan at all. It would be more like Brazil with the extent of corruption and low income level.
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Worse, when the Three Gorges Dam falls apart as well.
I know enough people in retail who have told me domestic market isnt great there right now and hasnt been a while.
Also the party bet big on Huawei being the technology infrastructure leader of the future. They were supposed to be a big growth engine
Without TSMC chips and most countries questioning whether they should allow them as an infrastructure vendor, they are basically a fucked company now. Unless China finds a new chip supplier or mega-super accelerates its domestic semi-conductor industry, that plan is over
Well at least they got their princess back.
Guy
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I think was part of the reason, there isnt really much more to hit Huawei with. When she was arrested, the company was set to take over the world and she had all the dark secrets. There isnt really much reason to continue with her now.
Also although Trump was effective in this instance(attacking
Huawei), I think Biden knows that the previous president’s Hooligan behavior is not a good look for the US looking to rebuild alliances.
After Beijing elected to hold the two Canadian Michaels (Kovrig and Spavor) as hostages—both were detained for over 1000 days—you can bet that the label “Hooligan” has not disappeared, at least in Canada.
Come to think of it, that’s not a bad book title: Hooligan State: How the People’s Republic of China Managed to Piss Off People in Most Industrialized Democracies.
Guy
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I mean you expect China to act like hooligans. The US president shouldnt behave that way
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Starry-eyed Canadians need their lessons to be more direct, it seems.
Beijing has stepped up and delivered.
Guy
We’ll see I doubt it’ll work all that well. The thing is what happens right now is critical. If China doesn’t do well now it’s gonna have some real problems once the demographic implosion and decoupling really gets going.
Also just like Japan and the Arab states US doesn’t really need an implosion of Chinese GDP to increase the gap and dwarf their economy again. It just needs them to stagnate for a while.