China's housing bubble: ghost malls, ghost highrises, and ghost cities

I think how they plan to drive innovation isnt going to work and they are betting big on something unproven.

These big international asset management companies have been caught out badly and misleading investors by still promoting their Chinese funds.

They need to toe the party line otherwise they will not get anything whatsoever back for their junk bonds (they will get burned anyway ) . The other reason is that they want to tap into the saving pools in China…Don’t trust anything these guys are saying right now.

Who are “these guys”?

Guy

Black rock and Fidelity when they talk about China. They own too many junk bonds related to Chinese construction companies.

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I think Ray Dalio is a true believer

https://www.ft.com/content/523c210c-e064-43d8-a084-44d821e776b0

I guess people think just a bump in the road. Tier 3 and 4 cities have been growing really fast and I imagine they think in the future will continue that way

Second casualty has arrived. This one is much smaller but it raises contagion prospects.

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More excited about this. This is the hottest story right now. Fu was the ass-hole authoritarian who was Xi’s barking dog in his anti-corruption charges. The guy was known as a real piece of shit and brought down a lot of Xi’s political rivals and anyone who crossed him. He has been purged in typical communist style.

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To control their population?

They invest a lot in technology for that. They spend more on internal security than they do on the military

I just want know why in china and in Taiwan people just buy up as much property as possible? Like most people want live in a new place and Taiwan’s population is going down yet people keep buying buying buying. Herd mentality? I know folks with houses they never visit ever nor even house anybody or anything inside them.

Why do they need to do that?

I know you’ve read other things in this thread and others about this. Taiwanese people have never seen home prices fall since the founding of this great nation. Meanwhile, any other form of investment has its (completely, 100% normal) ups and downs. I don’t know a Taiwanese person that doesn’t say “real estate can only go up. It doesn’t fall”. My issue is that buying your home to live in makes sense. Buying five more homes to have sit empty is so very unique to Taiwan.

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Thats what I just can’t get through my head. The 5 houses to sit empty just doesn’t compute in my head being through the housing bubble in the USA. Exactly what you said, every Taiwanese citizen I talk to seem to have this thought that housing will just keep going up and up, but it doesn’t compute in my head.

Don’t try to make it work in your head. It defies all laws of supply and demand, along with common sense. The bubble will burst. It could burst tomorrow, it could burst in 65 years, but it will burst.

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Because the party is paranoid and insecure and at some level question their own legitimacy. They want to stamp out any possible insurrection as soon as possible.

What insurrection? the people love them, they stand for the people, they make the people stronger. nothing to see here please move along.

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There is no opportunity for dissent in China. They also spend more money on internal propaganda than external.

Most metropolitan people have a nuanced and complex relationship with the party, but keep it to themselves

Although I’ve noticed a lot of people on this forum are as susceptible to jingoist propaganda.

That’s good, because their external propaganda is utter shite.

Guy

Hard to say. It’s a mixed bag. They are pretty good at co-opting leftist groups and overseas Chinese communities. Quite savvy at working with pr firms to sway media. Lots of different units within United Front doing different things

The State TV and the recent wolf warrior stuff is a disaster though, will give you that

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