Commodities in the New Great Depression: how low or high can they go

I’m a carnivore, I only eat animal products these days as best I can. I feel great, lost fat and it looks like gained some muscle even in lockdown. I think humans are meant to eat meat, and a lot of it. I tried vegan for a month and I felt like shit and my body composition got worse. Also, I’m pretty happy and enjoy eating meat and fish. I really did not like vegan food that much, some are good…but most are not.

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WTI crude is crashing again.

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I have had some fantastic vegan food and some truly awful vegan food. Either you have a vegan chef who wants to make food taste great based on the food available, or someone punishing you for not eating meat. There’s no middle :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

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It takes effort to make vegan food taste good to me. And usually it’s going to be high in fat and carbs for me to even enjoy it. Meat and fish is easy, even salt and pepper is enough. Although I like other spices as well.

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Well we were never meant to be 7, 8 , 10 billion humans living in concrete jungles destroying the natural world either. Eating meat is a huge contribution to environmental destruction and also many animals are raised in terrible conditions. I am still a meat eater, I understand it has some benefits too, but if the whole world starts eating even more meat than now I can’t imagine how bad it will be for nature. Even ocean fisheries are collapsing and now squid. Yes eating meat is the biggest guilttrip I have.

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That was predicted , futures settle every month towards end of month.

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McDonald’s CEO Kempczinski said on Thursday in a call with investors that McDonald’s has not had a single supply chain break globally. However, he acknowledged in an interview with CNBC that the current state of the meat processing industry in the US is “concerning.”

In fact, China went out and snapped up cheap crude at such a breakneck place that they now have their own critical oil storage issue. International news has been reporting for weeks on China’s jam-packed waterways filling up with crude tankers. On July 1 CNN reported that “China bought so much foreign oil at dirt-cheap prices this spring that a massive traffic jam of tankers has formed at sea waiting to offload crude” as the country’s purchases begin to arrive. “China’s so-called floating storage – defined as barrels of oil on vessels waiting for seven days or longer – has nearly quadrupled since the end of May, according to ClipperData.

I hope Taiwan’s CPC has been doing the same thing, but with their track record…

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Imagine a well placed Taiwanese missile. :whistle: :grimacing:

Or, some navigation accident when someone gets tired, or 2/3 or more people make small vector erros that add up quicker than expected.

An event that could create many black swans, and fish and all water birds and beaches and…

Gold trading spot price a few bucks above
$2000.
Silver up over 6% to $25.70.
Link above has transcript of BoA’s call for $3000.

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In these days, hyperbolic calls like that seem normal. My GDX is up 22% now. Not too shabby. Crazy pants times. But whatever, keep rates low and the dollar weak and this is what you’ll see…even in hyperbolic times.

Well, it’s ongoing now, due to after-effects of COVID-19.
Copper pushing up towards its historical high on the back of EV demand, infrastructure plans (Biden government), etc.
There are supply-side shortages in all realms of industry.
I have too many instances personally to write here, but maybe give a few.
Everyone knows of new cars not being able to get chips; one result is that used car prices in the U.S. are rising (which is not what they ever do, as your car value goes down every year, except for antique cars, which are considered investments). [Funny story on new car lots: people online noticing their local dealerships are “rearranging” the cars/trucks on the lots to make it “appear” they are still “full” like in normal times.]
From the other chat forums I follow, there are many instances of old cars/trucks that are harder to find “for sale” or their prices are much higher.
Same goes for equipment/parts for older cars.
Personal anecdote from someone I know is that a auto part was “recalled” due to a safety issue, but dealership has zero timeline of when to get this part. It’s for a very very popular truck in the U.S. and for multiple year models. Mind you, this is for a safety issue, which needs to get replaced ASAP, but cannot.
Equipment and parts for farm equipment (big and small, like big tractors and little lawn mowers) are going off the shelf and hard to find.
Another example: in furniture industry. The foam gel for cushions in a couch is nowhere to be found. Looking at 4 or more months before any likely timeline to get an order filled that is placed now for this chemical.
At Home Depot, wood prices on shelves have soared, and the shelves are getting barren.
One can search online and see how the price of wood has gone up dramatically in last 6 months or so. It also doesn’t hurt that everyone is trying to do home remodeling, as their “new offices” are now their den or spare room.

I could go on, but one gets the picture. It is everywhere.
If you are planning on buying anything of value, due it now and not wait.
This type of inflation is supply-side led due to shortages (and supply logistics problems) and will result in people just buying whatever at whatever price when a shipment comes in.

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Something crazy is going on. Construction materials prices in Japan thru the roof. Plastics prices in Taiwan thru the roof. Real estate prices on the West Coast in the U.S. sky high and rising. I wouldn’t want to be on the demand side of the equation at this point as it would be depressing.

Personally, im putting off a lot of projects now because why bother at the current pricing. Hopefully things settle once the world is reopened, that is, if they ever do reopen.

Don’t keep USD though, inflation will kill it.

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Not just the West Coast!

I am at lost with plastic prices also. Past month I’ve gotten raises from multiple vendors and some materials are just hard to get at all. Nobody can even fully explain if there is a shortage of supply or excess of demand and where the shortage is.

Electronics is out of control. Besides components even basic FR4 boards are up 50% YOY.

Good thing is I raised all my prices to my customers (mostly in US) and nobody said basically anything. The CPI’s don’t show it but inflation is here already.

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Don’t panic. It’s not inflation. It’s just the usual suspects spreading fake news:

Not just USA.