Well, assuming this isn’t complete bullshit (malfunctioning tests, propaganda, etc etc) in a couple of weeks they won’t be COVID-positive, Beijing will have reached something resembling “herd immunity”, and the CCP can finally STFU about COVID.
They won’t, of course. The show must go on.
That figure you attributed to me is not my figure; it’s from Hung Hao.
The figures seem to be challenged in the subsequent thread. If you’re into such things, have a look.
I think it is safe to say however that case numbers in Chian are rising, like lots.
Guy
I don’t understand what that’s showing, especially what “progress” means. So for several of the other cities, 100% of people are supposedly positive? That doesn’t seem at all plausible.
I agree.
Guy
Is everybody going to die?
Maybe the percentages are the progress to some estimated peak, and the tweet author has misinterpreted what they mean?
Who is saying this, other than you posing it as question?
Is the spread of a disease only relevant when it has the fatality rate of ebola?
And since omicron does not have the fatality rate of ebola, why are you even concerned enough to read this thread and post such a question?
Guy
I wasn’t intending to attribute it to you. It’s just the way the quote thingy works.
Frankly, I don’t think it’s safe to say anything at all about China. It’s clownworld squared. Best we can do is take some guesses.
It’s maybe test positivity rate.
As soon as you reach like 30% positive rate pooling won’t work at all anymore so just make it 100, haha.
PCR tests usually are pooled to increase capacity.
If you have more than 10% positive population kinda can only switch to rapid tests because all else is not doable anymore for testing.
Or they switched to testing only people with symptoms. Then you also reach high numbers during a strong outbreak. Rapid tests have less false positive than PCR (both can be faked to be positive quite easily with high acidity - the fruits/coke positive tests)… Maybe there is motivation to test positive to get afterwards a 3 months green transit mark or whatever. It’s China afterall
Taiwan faces medicine shortages due to hoarding and vast amounts being resold to China.
The reason is that the population has very little immunity to the virus because the vast majority of people have never been infected. Until recently, China has focused on massive quarantines, testing and travel restrictions to keep the virus mostly out of the country. So China prevented most people from getting infected with variants that came before omicron. But that means now nearly all 1.4 billion people are susceptible to an infection.
When the West (or Taiwan) does it, it’s good. When China does it, it’s bad.
It’s a pity China doesn’t release reliable statistics regarding deaths and hospitalisations, but I’d say it’s a safe bet that the same thing will happen in China as elsewhere: 99.99% of infected people will go home, feel a bit crap for a week, and then get better. Excess deaths will be a result of government action, exactly as happened everywhere else.
Several models have predicted a large death toll for this initial surge, with at least a half million deaths, perhaps up to a million.
One in 2000 people? 10% of the unvaccinated elderly? Seriously? Oh … right, it’s “models” again. Decide what result you want and configure the parameters to deliver.
A million? That’s nuffin. Covid’s greatest fear-merchant, Eric Feigl-Ding, is creaming himself right now 
Eric Dinglehead’s saying “millionS” and posting more alarmist videos.
On potential shortages of medical goods in Taiwan, the CECC speaks:
This part is interesting:
In a Cabinet meeting for COVID-19 prevention and response yesterday morning [i.e. on Monday December 19], the CECC said that although the Chinese government stopped releasing comprehensive data on new cases on Tuesday last week, many news outlets reported a shortage in fever and pain-relief drugs, as well as traditional herbal medicines, indicating an increase in the number of people with fever, so it is likely that COVID-19 cases are rising in China.
Much like the emergence of the virus in China was uncovered by big data analysis (as opposed to listening to Beijing’s mendacious pronouncements), I suspect similar techniques will be used now to try to track this unfolding tsunami of infections (as opposed to listening to—drum roll please—Beijing’s mendacious pronouncements).
Guy
Is Dinglberry still around? I thought he’d be keeping his head down these days until he gets his knighthood. After the complete and repeated failure of “models”, you’d think people would just point and laugh now. These numbers are ridiculous; they don’t even pass a basic sanity check. And yet all the pearl-clutchers say “oooh, how terrible” … about something that hasn’t even happened and probably won’t.
I was watching “Apollo 13” the other day. Kranz’s attitude was “nobody dies on my watch”, and he trusted his team to come up with solutions. If governments had taken a similar attitude in 2020 and just let the doctors get on with their jobs, maybe the people who know what they’re doing could have quietly solved the problem. But Kranz’s generation are mostly dead and gone, and we’re led by people who actually seem to relish abject failure.
Shortage of Panadaol in Taiwan due to bulk purchases shipped overseas
It’s the same as toilet paper sold out, medicine sold out is fear buying only. The toilet paper sales had nothing to do with diahrrea widespread.
Also many people may have simply restocked usual supply after before it was too suspecting to buy any painkillers…
Chinese are the masters in fear buying.
The mistake was that China didn’t prepare for sales of lots of stuff once Zero COVID is over announcement
#firstworldproblems
Looks like the newspapers want to make sure there is a shortage.
Just had the wife ask if we should buy some.
I thought it was a stupid question. She is out buying 20 packs now.
I have some paracetamol. NT$500 a pill if anybody’s interested.