Coronavirus crisis open thread - March

:thinking:
http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/

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So the Taiwan govt requires two weeks quarantine but pays for it along with food and gives you 1000 nt per person per day ?

That sounds like a good deal

What do you think you think about this case
Should they still get their 1000nt per day ?

The CECC already decided that this couple won’t get the 1000ntd per day

In China:


We warmly congratulate the spreading of the Virus in America, and may it last for a very very long time in Japan.

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https://www.6parknews.com/newspark/view.php?app=news&act=view&nid=407408

Writeup about it reposted from the Chinese press, the comments are interesting.

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Given the drama they and/or their relatives caused, NO, make them pay instead.

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Ok guys, that’s official now. We can expect a flat line from now on and no more local cases, only imported.

2 hr 39 min ago

Italy now has more coronavirus cases than China

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@Brianjones, a recent New Yorker article goes into this a little bit, on how increased exposure may lead to increased severity - that’s what you’re talking about here, right? This was news to me; I’ve always vaguely thought being infected was more of a binary state (analogous to egg fertilization, maybe?), and then it was up to the immune system. Longish piece, and I’m quoting a lot here because I suspect the article will be paywalled for most:

That raises the second question—does a larger viral “dose” result in more severe disease? …

Could the striking severity of their disease—twenty- and thirty-year-olds with covid -19 generally experience a self-limited, flu-like illness—be correlated with the amount of virus to which they were initially exposed? … “But, for reasons that we don’t understand, front-line health-care workers are at great risk for serious illness despite their younger age.”

Some suggestive research has been done with other viruses. In animal models of influenza, it’s possible to precisely quantify exposure intensity, and mice who were given higher doses of certain influenza viruses developed a more severe form of the disease. Yet the degree of correlation between dose and disease severity varied widely from one strain of the flu to the next. …

What sparse evidence we have about coronaviruses suggests that they may follow the pattern seen in influenza. In a 2004 study of the coronavirus that causes SARS, a cousin of the one that causes COVID-19, a team from Hong Kong found that a higher initial load of virus—measured in the nasopharynx, the cavity in the deep part of your throat above your palate—was correlated with a more severe respiratory illness. Nearly all the SARS patients who came in initially with a low or undetectable level of virus in the nasopharynx were found at a two-month follow-up to be still alive. Those with the highest level had a twenty- to forty-per-cent mortality rate. This pattern held true regardless of a patient’s age, underlying conditions, and the like. Research into another acute viral illness, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, reached a similar conclusion: the more virus you had at the start, the more likely you were to die.

Perhaps the strongest association between the intensity of exposure and the intensity of subsequent disease is seen in measles research. … “but in measles there are several clear indications that the severity of illness relates to the dose of exposure. And it makes immunological sense, because the interaction between the virus and the immune system is a race in time. It’s a race between the virus finding enough target cells to replicate and the antiviral response aiming to eliminate the virus. If you give the virus a head start with a large dose, you get higher viremia, more dissemination, higher infection, and worse disease.” …

I discussed this aspect of infection with the Harvard virologist and immunologist Dan Barouch, whose lab is among those that are working toward a vaccine against SARS -CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. He told me that ongoing studies with macaques are investigating the relationship between the initial dose of the SARS-CoV-2 viral inoculum and the amount of virus in lung secretions at a later time. He believes that there may be a correlation. “If we extended this logic to humans, we would expect a similar relationship,” he said. “And, logically, the larger amount of virus should trigger more severe disease by prompting a brisker inflammatory response. But that is still speculative. The relationship between initial viral dose and severity remains to be seen.”

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just did a google search on this. basically all the links are treating this like its fact. like italy legit has more cases.

thats too much fake news for me to take seriously. i’m getting seriously close to my own media lock down on this virus.

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Great yes I want to understand the theory behind it. I’ve never heard of initial viral load being a problem.

I took it from CNN

I cut out some of the doctors and studies they were referring to, just to make the quote a bit less ridiculously long. If you can’t access the full article, I can add those in above - I’m not sure how strict the New Yorker paywall is.

I’m glad I’m not the only one who’s surprised by this; I was wondering if I’d been oblivious for decades. Which wouldn’t be unprecedented for me.

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Until after the holiday.

Yeah, was gonna say, there should be an “allegedly” somewhere in that title.

Same as with

If they’re testing people with their 30%-accurate test kits it’s obvious you’ll see people tested negative then positive.

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:open_mouth:

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So I guess the Wuhan statistics will wind up buried in the same vault as the Tiannanmen Square massacre figures? You’ve gotta know the CCP has kept the numbers - one day they’ll show up, unless they’re burned moments before the regime is overthrown.

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I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t even have records. Too risky for the regime if they get out.

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Could be. I tend to assume they’re the same as the East German secret police with all their records, but the analogy may not hold.

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