Yes, this is why I’m scared of the reaction to the virus moreso than what they created in the Wuhan lab.
I mean they’re only now starting to expand testing. It doesn’t necessarily require lying. Probably no one really knows at the moment how bad the situation actually is.
If the hospital is swamped today and people are getting tested, their results will be in earliest tomorrow, so they might not be reported until Tuesday earliest. That’s what makes COVID so dangerous - it just spreads freakishly fast…
3 Likes
My logic is as follows:
- Of the couple of hundred cases identified today, ca. 25% were untraceable.
- The identified cases are undoubtedly an underestimate and subject to a lag of several days, i.e., there are still unidentified cases out there, and there are still people in the process of becoming sick.
- The difficulty of contact tracing increases rapidly with number of cases.
- Masks have some effectiveness, but they’re not a magic shield.
- The majority of people are going to work tomorrow, packed in MRT carriages and buses and offices.
6 Likes
it could be worse and probably is, because the koreans did more testing in march than taiwan is doing in may 2021 and the UK kent varient is more contagious than what was going around korea in March last year.
not looking good as all the current cases seem to be that same strain and numbers are already in the hundreds (thousands untested?)
2 Likes
Data in other countries has shown that people put off even essential hospital visits. Number of stroke patients has sharply declined last year in Europe, for example. Doesn’t mean that fewer people suffer from it - just fewer people actually seeking treatment.
I would assume Taiwanese people to react similarly and rather avoid hospital and doctor visits now if possible.
1 Like
There is one more case in Taichung, a kid from elementary school! The drive from Taipei to here was calm, no traffic jam at Hsinchu, and the streets in my area are completely empty.
Given how empty (some?) streets are now there’s hope that we can “contain” it like japan/korea. Cultural differences matter even if no one is perfect.
My guess for tomorrow is 500-600.
2 Likes
Everybody is free to have his/her own opinion but I don’t think this is enough data.
Plus if you look at the pattern of contagion office/work environment was not the main vector (if you exclude the shabby ones, which have been shut down by level 3 restrictions)
Well SK’s had 132,000 cases and Japan 680,000. JP’s still reporting 6,000+ cases/day right now.
Getting to SK/JP style “containment” is going to be painful and we’re just at the beginning of the pain.
1 Like
They’re available at cost. Meaning there’s no profit to be made.
I’m just saying it won’t be apocalyptic like usa. Rebelling is literally part of the culture even if it would be most reasonable to comply. As for korea/japan, we’re now over a year into this mess and vaccines are on their way. There’s no shortage of masks after ramping up capacity last year. Even if it’s 6000+ per day it won’t last as long. I’m sure we’ll be alright by the end of the year.
1 Like
Anyone know the recent/current stats on flu cases/deaths?
The Taiwan CDC publishes weekly reports on it:
Are you getting at something specific?
Edit: Didn’t notice the dates before - it seems they only do this for the duration of the flu season until March or so. There’s additional data for “severe complicated influenza” here (seems to be almost zero cases at the moment):
1 Like
I don’t think anybody knows how bad it can get. Assuming it won’t be as bad as insert country name ishubristic IMO.
We’re less than a week into knowing that we have a real outbreak. There were “only” 206 cases reported today and tonight there are reports that hospital beds in Taipei are already in short supply. How is that a hopeful sign?
Well we’re in this mess because people here didn’t follow the rules so I’m not sure it’s fair to assume that Taiwanese are as compliant as you believe.
Not nearly enough to reach herd immunity in Taiwan.
Masks are great but they’re not 100%. Most of the spread is indoors in households where people don’t wear masks and in Taiwan, many households have multiple generations crammed into one space.
5 Likes
Taiwan bosses are too strong and the dpp is in the pocket of the bosses.
That is the reason we have not locked down.
It’s really sad to see Taiwan repeat the mistakes of the rest of the world. For most of us, it seems like a movie we have already seen from our home countries
10 Likes
Yes, yes, and yes.
All of this, and the incubation period is commonly 5-6 days and can be up to 14. Exponential growth means every day not in lockdown now when numbers are low (yes, 200 is low for a dense country of 23 million) is likely extending the caseload by the tens of thousands in a few months (or less) time.
Let’s say you have a pond with a waterlily that will double each day. For the first 15 days, it will barely cover any surface. There will hardly be any significant coverage of the pond until day 28 when it will suddenly grow from 1/8 of the pond to 1/4, and day 29 from a quarter to half the pond. On day 30, the pond will be totally covered. The lily growth seems insignificant until it is very apparently isn’t. In our real world scenario, this is when it is too late for a preventative solution.
When cases were low, the government solution of contact tracing was an effective preventative measure. Now the numbers have changed for reasons that are unimportant at this point, and that is no longer economically or logistically feasible. Now we need to evaluate the best damage control measures for the next 6 months (until the majority can be vaccinated) and implement a hard lockdown now while we can still stave off some exponential growth. We can do this by inspecting other countries’ methods and success rates.
The one essential thing we have that other countries didn’t, is an extensive real world case study of over a hundred countries, their situations, what they tried, and what worked. We also have the perspective that comes with the knowledge that a vaccine already exists, a perspective most citizens of the world did not have the privilege of having while dealing with a very scary 8-10 months of the unknown.
The time for action is now, and if the government can not put its ducks in a row quickly enough, the spread might overwhelm the medical system here. The country has a lot going for it, as noted by many posters, but some aspects need to be handled by policymakers in addition to everyone working together and being conscientious citizens.
加油!
8 Likes
I have spoken with some friends (Taiwanese) and the big majority will start to work from home tomorrow. The company I will join in couple weeks is fully remote starting from tomorrow. People are being cautious looks like.
2 Likes
It’s not accurate. They had criteria before the crisis and they are sticking to them for now. Gov should not bend to bosses, neither they should do to fearmongering.
No, just curious.
1 Like
And not risking the economy in the meantime. I’m not disputing your logic.