Many of imported from USA had vaccine (per report attachment chart), so still need careful.
What’s the evidence? Either that it started there or did not start there.
I’ve wondered before how they could know for sure, and that assumptions might not be true.
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Hang on guys. The outbreak was pure Alpha. So we kind of know it wasn’t the fact that the virus was circulating for a long period of time and suddenly got caught red handed. If that was the case some of the cases would have been OG.
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I think the highest Covid 7-day death average in Taiwan was 28, on June 10.
I thought it started from the Novotel allowing allowing Quarantine Pilots and non-Quarantine guests to share the breakfast buffet?
That was a wild ride.
We certainly heard that, but how do they know, really?
A lot of the ‘source’ was from the medical union:
In which case they could have both left the Hotel with the virus - the Pilot after his shortened Quarantine and the Guest after their one-night stay - both merrily spreading it further.
Sorry, what do you mean here?
Well,
- if one of the Pilots had brought the bug back from Overseas -
- and one of the guests was exposed whilst at Breakfast -
each went their separate ways after, the Pilot courtesy of the reduced stay.
(was a typo/predictive text - one night stay became stand - since corrected)
There is already overwhelming evidence that this wasn’t the case.
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There was some hotel staff that got sick. It has happened in Sydney too with the Airline staff hotels.
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I guess I’m not seeing how this answers my question, which is, do we definitely know that this was the chain of transmission that led to the outbreak, and if so how?
Honest question: What is that overwhelming evidence?
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Yes, 2 cases in Sydney caused by Airline Crews that defied their ‘self isolate’ restrictions and managed to infect hotel cleaners.
(Airline Crew Quarantine in Sydney was not what the rest got, it was still a case of stay in the contracted hotel, isolate within, but still had run of the hotel, which also hosted Quarantine people as well. Some also went out on dinner and shopping trips too. Much to their dismay, the Government changed that to stay in in two separate (Air Crew) hotels well outside the CBD - where shopping trips/dinner outside was not an option. For most it was only 1-2 nights in any case as all were foreign, Qantas and Virgin had quit International flights so were not amongst them).
In Taiwan, hotel cleaners too
We can take a guess at how many people were in hospital at any given time from the daily death rates. During early April in the UK, they were seeing deaths and cases comparable to Taiwan’s peak (~25 and ~1800, respectively) bearing in mind that the UK’s population is three times the size of Taiwan’s. At that time, a total of 2600 beds were occupied by COVID patients, out of a total capacity of ~100,000 beds. Taiwan has roughly 160,000 beds. The idea that an extra (2600/3) people could not be accommodated requires a suspension of disbelief, IMO. Even if they were all crammed into Taipei’s 15 big hospitals, that would have been 50-odd per hospital, of whom perhaps 10 might have needed ICU attention.
The R=15 figure that @Andrew quoted earlier is just laughable. If that had been correct, Taiwan would have had 10% of the population infected within a matter of days. Contact tracing would have been futile. I can’t tell if these people are actually clueless (seems unlikely) or deliberately putting out stupid information.
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Australian quarantine hotels have been an unmitigated disaster. I’m no epidemiologist, scientist or academic, but I would guess that locking people in their rooms 24/7, not even allowing them outside for exercise, forbidding fresh air and opening of windows, and pumping shared aircon between the rooms, would probably result in poor health outcomes, particularly when you want to contain something they claim is quite infectious.
Call me ‘unexpert.’
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Add to that the lowly paid Contractors that were engaged to monitor the ‘guests’ and the lack of proper training that they received.
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