Here’s the key: that the BA.5 wave starts settling down. And at least this week, it seems that it has:
Credit: the inimitable @hansioux who has helpfully plotted out the numbers for us in the irreplaceable “Guesses” thread.
Comment: Holy f&ck have we flattened the curve. This does mean however that the back end of the tail will continue like this for quite some time. Put otherwise: low-level community transmission will almost certainly continue—though this is NOT a deal-breaker as discussed by the CECC as they plan ahead to adjust quarantine on arrival regulations on October 13; what they are concerned about it a potential spike in numbers, which happily is not happening now.
Guy