Do you have a stock strategy when the US election results settle down (whenever that may be)?

What are you thinking?

I figure there are 2 different outcomes from the election: a mandate or no mandate. If Biden wins and the Democrats sweep or if Trump wins and the Republicans keep the Senate, then there’s a mandate and the markets will react quickly and climb. If Trump loses and challenges the election, or the apparent winner is a different party than whoever controls the senate, then the markets will muddle through for days or weeks.

Here are some views in the news earlier this month.

7 Oct

21 Oct

Oct 2020

6 Oct

Here was his view back in May

In the case where markets look to gain (whether because of a mandate like I propose above, or for whatever reason and the outlook seems positive), how might you proceed? I’m 20% in cash and will look to invest in a combination of structured notes, managed funds, and index funds (or ETFs) over a period of time.

And in the case where markets muddle through? Maybe look for Covid-friendly sectors? I don’t know - would really like your perspectives on this angle

I have a strategy! Here is the rough gist:

80% of my assets are currently invested in stock ETFs (specifically SCHD and SCHB), and 20% are invested in bond ETFs (specifically SCHZ). Before/after the election, I will not sell/buy anything. Every once in a while (not timed to correspond with major world events), I will check that 80% is still in stocks and 20% is still in bonds, and if not, sell/buy to rebalance.

There you go! It’s as simple as that.


It’s hard to say. The recent market has been disrupted by small investors. Wall st can react one way while Robinhood investors can go another.

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GDP is going to explode in Q3…by like 33% I’ve read.

I think a lot of hedge fund managers got played this crash when everyone was selling off and the Robin Hood users used it as an opportunity to load up on cheap stocks.

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How do SCHD and SCHB differ from ETFs like SPY and QQQ? Are they more expensive because they are “branded”? I am looking at VOO as well

For the 20% in Bond ETFs, did you mean SCHZ?

I gotta look up how a Bond ETF works - is it still a passive instrument?

Thanks. I’ll look at this closer. Maybe these might help

That’s a good article as it will say what happens if a strong diversion from what’s been happening…er…happens…I predict.

US stock futures fell between 0.9 and 1.6%, pointing to another drop on Wall Street later, when investors will have to digest a slew of earnings from the likes of Boeing, Visa, Mastercard and Etsy. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries fell to their lowest in over a week, reflecting investor demand for safe-haven assets.

Looks like others are also raising cash - (1) seeing Covid problems in Europe, and (2) anticipating a dip in the US that could lead to bargain hunting in a downturn if election-related uncertainty spikes next week

Any thoughts on these funds to ride on over the next few months:

(5G) Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity

(AI) Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence

Food, sex, medicine/narcotics. In that order. Everything else is speculation.

My plan is to have an investment guy do all the work so I can play video games and read historical non-fiction books while I’m not working, taking care of my kids, or wasting time here.

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Which historical non-fiction are you reading these days?

Cicero by Anthony Everitt. I love Ancient Rome and Cicero specifically, and I’ve been on a legal/philosophical kick recently. I finished the Federalist Papers a bit ago, moved back to Locke, then to Plato (who I’m also reading).

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