As expected, Frank Hsieh, Yu Shyi-kun and Su Tseng-chang have now all officially announced their candidacy for the DPP’s presidential nomination. And it will be quite a surprise if Annette Lu doesn’t throw her hat into the ring as well.
But surely it’s a foregone conclusion, is it not, that Su will win the nomination ahead of Hsieh, with Yu trailing well behind in third place. Lu, of course, will get the fewest votes of all if she does decide to go for it. Or does anyone think there could possibly be any other outcome?
I think Hsieh is the only one who can realistically challenge Su, but Su is the front-runner, I agree. The DPP’s nomination is decided 30% by party member vote and 70% by party-commissioned opinion poll, so there’s potential there for a swing either way.
Su has an affable demeanour and ‘common touch’ that goes over well with the man on the street. He has been relatively untouched by recent scandals.
Hsieh performed better than many expected in the Taipei mayoral bid and his northerner status may sway a few voters his way in 2008 (while keeping a solid base in the south). He was tarnished by allegations of corruption after his term as Kaohsiung mayor, but he has largely escaped being caught up in the major dirt. He also had a positive effect on Kaohsiung during his time in office - something which he can point to while Su, having not held this kind of office, cannot.
We all know how dirty Taiwanese election campaigns can get, so perhaps the cleaner candidate (Su) would be the better choice - but if he could neutralise the whiff of scandal, Hsieh might be more likely than Su to bring in middle-ground voters and actually win the presidency for the DPP. That’s a big ‘if’, of course.
How is that a foregone conclusion? NOTHING in Taiwanese politics is a foregone conclusion. The last poll I saw in the Apple Daily (bastion of responsible political journalism) several days ago had Su and Xie at about 20-something percent, Lu and Yu in the upper teens, and 20-something percent undecided. Who knows how it would swing if Lu or Yu drops out?
And while I agree that Su just gives off a better vibe (a straight-talking, roll-up-your-sleeves-and-get-things-done sort of guy) than Xie (who is way too slimy, banana-republic for me), is there really any evidence that this is more than just a vibe, that Su really is more honest? I think he’s sort of like McCain in the US, who has been coasting by for a while more on reputation as a “straight shooter” than for actually ever shooting straight.
Anyhow, like the 2000 and 2004 election, if the DPP candidate is elected in 2008, I think it won’t be because of who the DPP candidate is or how they campaign. The election results will hinge almost entirely on how poorly the pan-blue sides do. And watching this Ma special fees case unfold, I most certainly wouldn’t put it past the blues to fumble the ball once again.
True. Of course it would be nice if the candidates unveil a strong raft of positive policies to go out there and win the election, but I don’t see either side doing that - it’ll be muck and smut, business as usual.
I think if the DPP really wants to win they should try to achive this: Hsieh as prez candidate; Yu as running mate (for the deep green’s pleasure); Su pledging to stay on as Premier and finish cleaning up the law and oder situation. Maybe Annette Lu can become the “spiritual leader” or something.
I think that could be a winning combination.
By polling 40% in Taipei, Hsieh has shown that he might beat Ma nationally. Of course, this is not clear, because he was running against someone with little charisma. Ma might beat the pants off of any DPP candidate. But, of course, the KMT will need to find a way to choose MA as candidate.
Remember, CSB got 50% of the nationwide vote last election even as he appeared to be the target of much scorn and hatred. Unless one really thinks his being shot at drew a big sympathy vote (and I sure don’t think so), it is actually the DPP’s election to win. The only thing that should be able to stop them is Ma’s charm and fame.
But only because the pan-blues fielded two of the most execrable villains ever to sully electoral politics in Taiwan. If Ma had been their candidate for the top job, he’d surely have won by a wide margin; if they’d put up almost anyone else who could conceivably have gone on the ticket, they’d still all but certainly have won with plenty to spare.
For what it’s worth, my deep blue fiancee would vote for Su over Ma any time, and she has felt that since Ma started showing that he was somewhat short of balls.
I only think it’s rather recently that she started stating that she would vote for Frank over Ma, and that was when Ma was caught with the fingers in the cookie jar.
[quote=“Mr He”]For what it’s worth, my deep blue fiancee would vote for Su over Ma any time, and she has felt that since Ma started showing that he was somewhat short of balls.
I only think it’s rather recently that she started stating that she would vote for Frank over Ma, and that was when Ma was caught with the fingers in the cookie jar.[/quote] Mr. He, that is interesting. Thanks for your post. I will check what some of my light blue friends are thinking lately.
When I was back in Taiwan I also was amazed to hear so many fence sitters or those leaning to the KMT remark positively on Su. Quite an amazing chap, really. Apparently - cos I can’t understand it - he’s an incredibly gifted speaker in Taiwanese.
Actually, I remember someone explained to me not too long ago about Su’s popularity and they said that people like him because he has an honest looking face and he comes off as genuine and trustworthy, not devious like most politicians. With Su it is kind of like what you see is what you get, no typical duplicitous words or looks in his eye, nothing going on behind his eyes other than sincerity.
She said maybe it also helps he has a slogan, Chong Chong Chong.
[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]When I was back in Taiwan I also was amazed to hear so many fence sitters or those leaning to the KMT remark positively on Su. Quite an amazing chap, really. Apparently - cos I can’t understand it - he’s an incredibly gifted speaker in Taiwanese.
Sorry pal, that’s the man’s mother tongue, what you want to do about it, make him speak awkwardly in a second language? Sixty years is about long enough for your lot to start at least understanding the local lingo.
[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]Sorry pal, that’s the man’s mother tongue, what you want to do about it, make him speak awkwardly in a second language? Sixty years is about long enough for your lot to start at least understanding the local lingo.
HG[/quote]
Sorry, did you mean the Hakka or the Aboriginals tongue?
Takes an astute business person less than 3 months to learn the local lingo if they are motivated.
[quote=“ac_dropout”][quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]Sorry pal, that’s the man’s mother tongue, what you want to do about it, make him speak awkwardly in a second language? Sixty years is about long enough for your lot to start at least understanding the local lingo.
HG[/quote]
Sorry, did you mean the Hakka or the Aboriginals tongue?
Takes an astute business person less than 3 months to learn the local lingo if they are motivated.[/quote]
Thats a high requirement considering it took yourself years to somewhat master the English. You still kept an accent too apparently.
It takes years to be really fluent in a language, capable of expressing yourself confidently and accurately.
[quote=“ShrimpCrackers”][quote=“ac_dropout”][quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]Sorry pal, that’s the man’s mother tongue, what you want to do about it, make him speak awkwardly in a second language? Sixty years is about long enough for your lot to start at least understanding the local lingo.
HG[/quote]
Sorry, did you mean the Hakka or the Aboriginals tongue?
Takes an astute business person less than 3 months to learn the local lingo if they are motivated.[/quote]
Thats a high requirement considering it took yourself years to somewhat master the English. You still kept an accent too apparently.
It takes years to be really fluent in a language, capable of expressing yourself confidently and accurately.[/quote]
Grasping at straws I see.
You really should try to stay on topic, instead of trying to diss people online. It’s kinda weak, you know.
If you’re not familar with the Taiwan politics, just pick up the Chinese newspapers and read the political section. It will help you stay on point.
Like for instance why is speaking one non-official dialect better than another in Taiwan. All the non-official dialects on Taiwan can be learned without a formal education. Wouldn’t it be better to have a leader that has been properly educated.
Ah come on ac, I’m sure you can be more condescending than that - I know you can. Mandarin can be learned without a formal education too, in case you hadn’t noticed. And from non-native experience of both, I’d place Taiwanese (or Minnan or whatever you will doubtless insist on calling it ) as more difficult than Mandarin. But difficulty is irrelevant - I simply don’t believe that one language has more merit than another.
“Properly educated” my arse. You don’t mean that at all. You mean speaking Mandarin in the acrolectal fashion. Speaking like you’re from Pingdong and a native speaker of Taiwanese indicates just that and nothing more. Su of course is an NTU graduate, a university which was just rated first in the Chinese-speaking world (in a Shanghai Jiaotong University study).
If you’re not careful some people might read your opinions on this as being, well, bigoted. And the more you bang on about the “Hoklo supremacists” , the more it seems like you’re projecting your own unpleasant bigotry on to other people.
That’s would be quite an irony to be considered bigoted to point out that Mandarin is the official dialect of Taiwan. I guess since most posters didn’t even get their primary education in Taiwan sometimes people forget…
Just pointing out to people that supporting Hoklo supremist is akin to supporting white supremist abroad. A few years ago FLG seemed like such a cool movement, because people were not aware the movement was full of nutters. TI, similarly, is full of “racism.”
Sometimes immigrants or visitors to Taiwan don’t get it.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]That’s would be quite an irony to be considered bigoted to point out that Mandarin is the official dialect of Taiwan. I guess since most posters didn’t even get their primary education in Taiwan sometimes people forget…
Just pointing out to people that supporting Hoklo supremist is akin to supporting white supremist abroad. A few years ago FLG seemed like such a cool movement, because people were not aware the movement was full of nutters. TI, similarly, is full of “racism.”
Sometimes immigrants or visitors to Taiwan don’t get it.[/quote]
Don’t start squirming. Mandarin is the official language (installed by the KMT over the wishes of the majority), but so what? Su has an NTU degree, which I’m sure he didn’t get speaking Taiwanese. You are claiming that he and others like him are uneducated because they speak the idiom of their area. That is bigoted.
And your Hoklo supremacist is such a straw man, ac. Sure, these people exist, but they are the lunatic fringe, a tiny minority. Just like the lunatics who claim that Taiwanese is a debased form of Chinese. Constantly invoking a few nutters to slur a whole movement or ideology is completely disingenuous.
And again you come with “immigrants and visitors” card. The cousin of “you are not Chinese, you do not understand”. More bigotry on the way, ac? Take the blinkers off.
How would you explain the increased drive toward people actually learning their mother tongue in school? Official policy here is that people are to learn their native languages.
At local government offices, it’s entirely possible to get service even when using th language actually spoken in the area, at least when the languages used are hakka or Taiwanese.
Note that mandarin is a new language on Taiwan, the actual usage of it is not longer than that of japanese, which was the previous official language. Also, Mandarin is at the end of the day just as foreign.
You can’t be serious AC! There’s a world of difference between a cult and the legitimate democratic quest for representation and freedom.
You being as clueless about Taiwan as you are certainly fall into the category.
) as more difficult than Mandarin. But difficulty is irrelevant - I simply don’t believe that one language has more merit than another.