Drill Baby Drill: Nothing succeeds like success


#21

[quote=“rowland”]http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/122314-731936-declining-energy-prices-set-fire-to-economy.htm

[quote]
What’s generating the growth? A huge factor has been the fall in energy costs. As crude slid from $105 a barrel last summer to closer to $70 by September, the cost of oil imports tumbled. A decline in imports contributed 0.16 percentage point to GDP.

Moreover, as fuel costs fall, U.S. exports rise because U.S.-made goods become more cost competitive.

With prices lower now in this quarter, the good news story rolls on. Thank you, fracking.

Businesses are clearly feeling less fearful about investing, and some of the Obama anti-business, anti-shareholder agenda has dissipated as the Republican Congress repels the worst ideas — cap and trade, minimum-wage hikes, new energy taxes and massive new spending initiatives out of Washington.

Gridlock now looks to be built into the political system for the next two years. In many ways, that’s reassuring.
[/quote][/quote]

[quote=“MikeN”]Gee, right-wingers are funny.

For the last six years they (the IBD very much included) have been screaming

OBAMA"S WRECKING THE ECONOMY!!!
(Actually, I should have done that Tigerman-style with 12 inch caps and rainbow colors to get the full emotional force in)

Massive hyperinflation!! Plunging US dollar!! Collapsing stockmarkets!! Trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see!! Calamitous unemployment (not that they actually care)!! Exploding national debt!! Soaring interest rates as bond markets reject Obama policies!! Buy GOLDDD!!!

OBAMA IS DESTROYING America!!! :fume: :astonished: :fume: :astonished: :fume: :astonished: ( a little fred smith there)

OH, wait- none of that happened? Everything we have continuously, hysterically been predicting for the last six years was totally wrong? Everything the other guys said was right?

Gee, Republicans have been doing great all along![/quote]

MikeN… Are you familiar with the meaning of non sequitur?

:laughing:


#22

[quote=“Tigerman”]
MikeN… Are you familiar with the meaning of non sequitur?

:laughing:[/quote]

I’m sure he sees it in the mirror every morning.


#23

I must admit it would have been interesting to see Obama’s economic agenda in action if he’d ever been able to implement it. That’s easy for me to say though from 12,000 kilometers away.


#24

[quote=“Tigerman”][quote=“rowland”]http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/122314-731936-declining-energy-prices-set-fire-to-economy.htm

Third quarter growth was 5%. Furthermore, as we’ve been constantly reminded, the US is both an importer and exporter of oil and gas- falling costs of imports was partially offset by falling prices for exports. As the US is still a net importer, this is good for the country as a whole, though bad for places like Alaska and, especially, Texas.

Fracking, while a contributor to lower costs, was a minor one- the main reason was still-depressed demand internationally.

And, you’re right about the rest of it too- it’s just an off-topic typical nonsensical anti-Obama rant that ignores what’s actually happened, as well as what the IBD has been predicting all along.


#25

So if the economic recovery is booming now thanks to Obamanomics was the whole gridlock meme just overblown liberal hype?


#26

nah


#27

Great. Jobs are coming back. So who gets the credit for the type of jobs? Obama and his economic policies?

[quote]As a result of unbalanced employment growth, the types of jobs available to unemployed workers, new labor market entrants, and individuals looking to move up the career ladder are distinctly different today than they were prior to the recession,” says a widely cited analysis from the National Employment Law Project (NELP), a left-leaning research and advocacy group.

The NELP compared industries with low hourly wages (from $9.48 to $13.33), mid-level wages ($13.73 to $20) and high wages ($20.03 to $32.62). It found that low-wage sectors accounted for 44 percent of job growth from February 2010 — the low point in employment — until April 2014. This was double the share of lost low-wage jobs, 22 percent, during the Great Recession. By contrast, job increases in mid-wage and high-wage industries were only 26 percent and 30 percent of the total, much lower than their shares of job losses, 37 percent and 41 percent.[/quote]


#28

[quote=“MikeN”][quote=“Tigerman”][quote=“rowland”]http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/122314-731936-declining-energy-prices-set-fire-to-economy.htm

Third quarter growth was 5%. Furthermore, as we’ve been constantly reminded, the US is both an importer and exporter of oil and gas- falling costs of imports was partially offset by falling prices for exports. As the US is still a net importer, this is good for the country as a whole, though bad for places like Alaska and, especially, Texas.

Fracking, while a contributor to lower costs, was a minor one- the main reason was still-depressed demand internationally.

And, you’re right about the rest of it too- it’s just an off-topic typical nonsensical anti-Obama rant that ignores what’s actually happened, as well as what the IBD has been predicting all along.[/quote]

The oil price question is quite complex, but there has been no decrease in demand. There has been a significant increase in supply though from non OPEC countries. The end of QE is also likely to have had some relation to speculation on oil.


#29

[quote=“headhonchoII”]
The oil price question is quite complex, but there has been no decrease in demand. There has been a significant increase in supply though from non OPEC countries. The end of QE is also likely to have had some relation to speculation on oil.[/quote]

There has indeed (or “decrease in expected demand”)
finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-d … EEdnRpZAM-

latimes.com/business/la-fi-o … story.html

There has also been a rise in supply but most of the current weakness is due to slow growth in Europe and Japan, past slow growth in America plus slowing growth in places like China and Brazil.


#30

[quote=“MikeN”][quote=“headhonchoII”]
The oil price question is quite complex, but there has been no decrease in demand. There has been a significant increase in supply though from non OPEC countries. The end of QE is also likely to have had some relation to speculation on oil.[/quote]

There has indeed (or “decrease in expected demand”)
finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-d … EEdnRpZAM-

latimes.com/business/la-fi-o … story.html

There has also been a rise in supply but most of the current weakness is due to slow growth in Europe and Japan, past slow growth in America plus slowing growth in places like China and Brazil.[/quote]

There is indeed some mincing of words going on:

[quote]The organization said demand would grow by 900,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million barrels a day (in 2015).[/quote]-http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-price-international-energy-agency-20141212-story.html


#31

[quote=“Dog’s_Breakfast”][quote=“rowland”]http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/2014/140312/twipprint.html

[/quote]

Sounds impressive until you consider US oil consumption. I looked up the latest statistics I could find:

Average daily US oil production: 7.5 million barrels/day
Average daily US oil consumption: 19 million barrels/day

Percentage of US oil consumption from domestic sources: 39%
Percentage of US oil consumption from imports: 61%

The idea that the USA is about to turn into “another Saudi Arabia” is a bit ridiculous.[/quote]

How so? The US is right there with SA in terms of output…bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-0 … saudi.html I guess you mean since they consume more oil and are not a net exporter like SA? Kind of missing the point

The latest you could find must be 2013 whole year average output. At any rate, every month in 2014 up to Oct was >8k/day, so that is lowballing it a bit
eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa … RFPUS2&f=M

Think about the trend. That the world’s largest consumer would also become the largest producer (give or take) was completely unforeseen 10 years ago. That is the point and a huge part of the reason why oil is getting crushed right now


#32

[quote=“rowland”]http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/122314-731936-declining-energy-prices-set-fire-to-economy.htm

[quote]
What’s generating the growth? A huge factor has been the fall in energy costs. As crude slid from $105 a barrel last summer to closer to $70 by September, the cost of oil imports tumbled. A decline in imports contributed 0.16 percentage point to GDP.

Moreover, as fuel costs fall, U.S. exports rise because U.S.-made goods become more cost competitive.

With prices lower now in this quarter, the good news story rolls on. Thank you, fracking.

Businesses are clearly feeling less fearful about investing, and some of the Obama anti-business, anti-shareholder agenda has dissipated as the Republican Congress repels the worst ideas — cap and trade, minimum-wage hikes, new energy taxes and massive new spending initiatives out of Washington.

Gridlock now looks to be built into the political system for the next two years. In many ways, that’s reassuring.
[/quote][/quote]

Just so you know, this is cliched, partisan political analysis doing an extremely poor job of masquerading as economic commentary. The analysis is pretty garbage. A decline in imports contributed .16 to overall GDP or to GDP growth? Either way, a HUGE factor seems like a huge exaggeration. Also, how do US exports become more competitive? Which ones? If we are presumably talking about exports where petroleum is a major input, wouldn’t the same be true for any other country exporting said goods?

A stronger dollar is helping to push oil lower, which makes US exports less competitive


#33

Compared to what?


#34

Price of oil is down enough so that a good portion of West Texas could be out of work.


#35

And the long-term prospects of China buying more and more oil are also dimming:
linkedin.com/pulse/growing- … gordon-orr


#36

Well, that’s Texas. I just got back from Palawan, where the price of electricity is now PHP10.1/kWh (US$0.23), and there are random blackouts to boot. Gasoline is PHP50/litre ($4.30/gallon). Solar is roughly 20-70% cheaper than that, depending on what you’re using it for. I’m amazed that people actually think that a transient reduction in oil prices is of any long-term significance.


#37

Ahem, finley, I believe you are wanted over on this thread:

forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopi … 5&t=141013


#38

washingtonpost.com/blogs/gov … -fracking/

We can’t all be ahead of the curve.


#39

washingtontimes.com/news/201 … republica/

[quote]Despite continued resistance from the Obama administration, a bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation Tuesday to end the decadeslong ban on U.S. crude oil exports, a move they argue will provide economic benefits at home and offer greater energy security to allies around the world.

The bill demonstrates growing support among Republicans and Democrats for lifting the export ban, implemented in the 1970s when the Arab oil embargo prompted the prohibition of all exports of American crude oil.

The U.S. now has become the world’s largest producer of crude oil and natural gas. Supporters of the measure say it’s time U.S. law catches up to that reality and point to provisions in the legislation that would halt exports in the event of unintended consequences.[/quote]

Bipartisanship!


#40

[quote]Massive hyperinflation!! Plunging US dollar!! Collapsing stockmarkets!! Trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see!! Calamitous unemployment (not that they actually care)!! Exploding national debt!! Soaring interest rates as bond markets reject Obama policies!! Buy GOLDDD!!!

OBAMA IS DESTROYING America!!! :fume: :astonished: :fume: :astonished: :fume: :astonished: ( a little fred smith there)

OH, wait- none of that happened? Everything we have continuously, hysterically been predicting for the last six years was totally wrong? Everything the other guys said was right?[/quote]

:roflmao: Absolutely true, and there’s several people posting in this very thread that were uttering the same statements not more than 1-2 years ago. But if we can’t even get anonymous posters on a chat forum to admit they were way wrong, what chance is there that Republicans in general will admit they were, let alone the actual leaders of the opposition. It’s all a big game with zero accountability. Just moving from one wrong statement to the next, with the memory of a goldfish.